Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Oil spikes to $65 on inventory report OPEC keeps production unchanged

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose Thursday after government data showed U.S. crude inventories fell last week for a third straight week as the nation imported less oil and as demand for gasoline picked up.

After the data, crude for July delivery rose $1.14, or 1.8%, to $64.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil had been on the rise in the previous three sessions. It ended Wednesday's trading at the highest level since Nov. 5.

"We should expect crude stocks to decline further although inventories levels are still above normal," said James Williams, an economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics. "The gasoline refinery numbers are encouraging."

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, reported after the close of trading Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels. The EIA and the API use different criteria for gauging inventory levels.

Rounding out the trading in energy futures, June-reformulated gasoline rose 0.2% to $1.8955 a gallon, while June heating oil gained 2% to $1.5927 a gallon.

In oil exchange-traded funds, the United States Oil Fund (USO, Trade ) gained 2.3% to $35.39. In energy equities, the Amex Oil Index (XOI ) rose 2.3% to 962.

Also pushing oil prices higher Thursday, a pair of U.S. government reports showed the number of new layoffs declined last week and durable-goods orders rose more than predicted last month.
The number of new layoffs declined by 13,000 to 623,000 last week, while the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits rose by 110,000 to a record 6.79 million, the Labor Department reported.

Meanwhile, orders for U.S.-made durable goods jumped in April, rising 1.9%.

Also in economic news, U.S. sales of new homes were nearly unchanged in April, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, adding to a sense that sales appear to have hit a bottom earlier this year. See full story.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to keep production quotas unchanged, in line with expectations.

OPEC, which accounts for about one-third of the world's oil production, decided to leave production levels unchanged at Thursday's meeting in Vienna.

"The Conference noted that the crude volumes entering the market are still in excess of actual demand and that, although crude inventories have fallen over the preceding two months, stocks remain high," the cartel said in a statement released after the meeting.

The group had cut its production by 4.2 million barrels a day in several steps since September. The compliance rate rose to 83% in March, a surprise to industry analysts given OPEC's poor historical record.

But as oil prices rose in recent months, some OPEC members increased their production. The cartel's output rose in April for the first month in eight, according to the International Energy Agency and a survey by energy-information provider Platts


The point of this article is to tell us that the economy is getting stronger and there will be higher demand for oil in the future. This alomng with the recent dollar and bond hit makes the oil move make sense. I still believe that this is a bear market rally and therefore I will short it.

Mikey buys first position on DUG (oil index short) @18.02. Oil is making a new high oil stocks are not. Will start my position on the DUG here...

Still hold my first buy on ZSL (silver short) @ 9.42 now at 7.88 looking to add on @7.28 for my second buy

Still holding my first buy on GLL @ 16.50 now at 14.34 second buy will be @13.50

The fundamentals on the market are looking weak to me now. I am 85% cash 10% long and 5% short.
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)