The old Askkew line from the 70's applies here. It is easy to be negative now. The payoff is being positive. I choose to look on the bright side of the future not the negative side of the past. If you can do this at this time the payoff is huge. That is the upside to capitalism. In times like these bet with the system. The alternative is not acceptable.
12:54 DJIA 8693 +214 VIX 55.27 Like the action think this rally has legs will stay with my positions ..The beat goes on Mikey. Have a good Turkey day!!!
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Gold Bugs.. This just in. The world is not comming to an end
Sorry Gold bugs they are going to pull this one out. Just between you and me Gold will not like this. Buy gold when it gets to 360
Old News Vs New News ...
Todays news
Old news: Durable Goods Orders Shrink Dramatically
Against the backdrop of uncertain financial markets, the economy continued to show weakness, according to economic reports released Wednesday.
CNBC.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in two years as manufacturing was battered by the overall economic weakness.
Meanwhile, American cut back their spending in October by the largest amount since the 2001 terrorist attacks(take a look at what the stock market did from Sept 2001 to Feb 2002) and the labor market remained weak, although the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell by 14,000 last week.
The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods dropped by 6.2 percent last month, more than double the 3 percent decline economists expected.
The report showed widespread declines throughout manufacturing led by decreases in autos and airplanes.
4-Week Jobless Average Moves Higher
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 529,000 in the week ended Nov. 22 from an upwardly revised 543,000 the previous week, the Labor Deportment said.
A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 537,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 542,000 the week before.
The big decline in spending in October underscores concerns that the economy is falling into a deep recession. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.
New News:
Rates on U.S. 30-year mortgages posted a record drop of 1-1/8 percentage point to 4-7/8 percent on Tuesday, after the Federal Reserve said it would implement a $600 billion plan to support the mortgage securities market.
Mortgages
30 yr fixed 5.81% 5.97%
30 yr fixed jumbo 7.29% 7.39%
15 yr fixed 5.53% 5.79%
15 yr fixed jumbo 6.45% 6.61%
5/1 ARM 5.90% 5.57%
5/1 jumbo ARM 6.17% 5.61%
Find personalized rates:
Bankrate.com
The decline on the Mortgage Point Monitor is the biggest since the data series began in 1998, according to David Beadle, president of BestInfo.
The drop is also a one-day record since at least 1988 using other data, he said.
Lower U.S. mortgage rates lifted demand for mortgage applications last week, a trade group said on Wednesday, and demand should escalate after a new broad-brushed government plan to support the housing markets.
AP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With average 30-year fixed loan rates dropping 0.17 percentage point to 5.99 percent last week, total mortgage applications rose 1.5 percent mainly due to demand for mortgages to buy houses, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index.
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve and Treasury unveiled a plan to buy up to $500 billion of mortgage securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, as well as up to $100 billion of debt issued by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks.
This massive infusion is expected ultimately to reduce U.S. mortgages rates further, as they have been hovering at high levels over risk-free government debt.
Average 30-year home loan rates fell to 5-1/2 percent on Tuesday after the government lifeline was announced, according to Bankrate.
Lower loan rates should help revive the worst U.S. housing market since the Great Depression.
Refinancing should also increase, freeing cash for consumers to spend and bolster an economy widely seen deeply in recession.
"Over time, bringing those mortgage rates down and keeping them down is a step necessary to begin soaking up the inventory of unsold homes in the marketplace," Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate in North Palm Beach, Florida, said on Tuesday.
"Prices have been coming down but mortgage rates really haven't," he added.
"Well now, you've got both oars rowing in the same direction for you as a home buyer. This, over time, is going to get people back in the market, get people a little more willing to take the plunge into home ownership," he said.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications for loans to buy homes rose 5.3 percent last week to 261.6.
Its gauge of refinancing applications declined 2.1 percent to 1,254.0 last week.
Total mortgage applications are climbing from eight-year lows set earlier this month.
It all depends on your focus. It is obvious what is happeneing but it is my belief that they will push 30 year rates below 4.5%.
The Fed is taking on the loan portfolios off the banks books and this will allow a flow of funds to the area it is needed the most. The prices of the bank stocks do not reflect any of this yet.
You can focus on the old news..the obvious or you can focus on the new news. . In my pea brain what the Fed is doing is a game changer. I will focus on the latter
Adding to my MBI 4.99 and ABK 1.36 and UYM 12.56
Starting new position in CMI 22.27 and MTG 2.37
Old news: Durable Goods Orders Shrink Dramatically
Against the backdrop of uncertain financial markets, the economy continued to show weakness, according to economic reports released Wednesday.
CNBC.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in two years as manufacturing was battered by the overall economic weakness.
Meanwhile, American cut back their spending in October by the largest amount since the 2001 terrorist attacks(take a look at what the stock market did from Sept 2001 to Feb 2002) and the labor market remained weak, although the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell by 14,000 last week.
The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods dropped by 6.2 percent last month, more than double the 3 percent decline economists expected.
The report showed widespread declines throughout manufacturing led by decreases in autos and airplanes.
4-Week Jobless Average Moves Higher
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 529,000 in the week ended Nov. 22 from an upwardly revised 543,000 the previous week, the Labor Deportment said.
A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 537,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 542,000 the week before.
The big decline in spending in October underscores concerns that the economy is falling into a deep recession. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.
New News:
Rates on U.S. 30-year mortgages posted a record drop of 1-1/8 percentage point to 4-7/8 percent on Tuesday, after the Federal Reserve said it would implement a $600 billion plan to support the mortgage securities market.
Mortgages
30 yr fixed 5.81% 5.97%
30 yr fixed jumbo 7.29% 7.39%
15 yr fixed 5.53% 5.79%
15 yr fixed jumbo 6.45% 6.61%
5/1 ARM 5.90% 5.57%
5/1 jumbo ARM 6.17% 5.61%
Find personalized rates:
Bankrate.com
The decline on the Mortgage Point Monitor is the biggest since the data series began in 1998, according to David Beadle, president of BestInfo.
The drop is also a one-day record since at least 1988 using other data, he said.
Lower U.S. mortgage rates lifted demand for mortgage applications last week, a trade group said on Wednesday, and demand should escalate after a new broad-brushed government plan to support the housing markets.
AP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With average 30-year fixed loan rates dropping 0.17 percentage point to 5.99 percent last week, total mortgage applications rose 1.5 percent mainly due to demand for mortgages to buy houses, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index.
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve and Treasury unveiled a plan to buy up to $500 billion of mortgage securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, as well as up to $100 billion of debt issued by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks.
This massive infusion is expected ultimately to reduce U.S. mortgages rates further, as they have been hovering at high levels over risk-free government debt.
Average 30-year home loan rates fell to 5-1/2 percent on Tuesday after the government lifeline was announced, according to Bankrate.
Lower loan rates should help revive the worst U.S. housing market since the Great Depression.
Refinancing should also increase, freeing cash for consumers to spend and bolster an economy widely seen deeply in recession.
"Over time, bringing those mortgage rates down and keeping them down is a step necessary to begin soaking up the inventory of unsold homes in the marketplace," Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate in North Palm Beach, Florida, said on Tuesday.
"Prices have been coming down but mortgage rates really haven't," he added.
"Well now, you've got both oars rowing in the same direction for you as a home buyer. This, over time, is going to get people back in the market, get people a little more willing to take the plunge into home ownership," he said.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications for loans to buy homes rose 5.3 percent last week to 261.6.
Its gauge of refinancing applications declined 2.1 percent to 1,254.0 last week.
Total mortgage applications are climbing from eight-year lows set earlier this month.
It all depends on your focus. It is obvious what is happeneing but it is my belief that they will push 30 year rates below 4.5%.
The Fed is taking on the loan portfolios off the banks books and this will allow a flow of funds to the area it is needed the most. The prices of the bank stocks do not reflect any of this yet.
You can focus on the old news..the obvious or you can focus on the new news. . In my pea brain what the Fed is doing is a game changer. I will focus on the latter
Adding to my MBI 4.99 and ABK 1.36 and UYM 12.56
Starting new position in CMI 22.27 and MTG 2.37
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Now that's a Bailout!..Where have you been Ben
Futures spiked following news that the Federal Reserve will create a facility to support consumer lending.
The Fed, in another massive life-support move to triage the U.S. financial system, on Tuesday announced a $600 billion program to buy mortgage-related debt and securities and a $200 billion facility to buy consumer debt securities.
The U.S. central bank said it would buy up to $100 billion in debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, the government-sponsored mortgage finance enterprises. The Fed also said it would buy up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.
A government bailout for Citigroup and clarity on the incoming government's economic team helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average secure a 4.9 percent gain Monday, adding to Friday's near 500-point leap.
FNM .50 and FRE .62 look like a buy to me here at these price. I am not buying big just adding to my position. Still expect these to take time
This is good:
The two trading days mark the best performance for US stocks since the rebound after the 1987 crash. Despite the rally, many investors remained wary of further weakness to come
Citigroup [C 5.95 --- UNCH (0) ] shares clawed back much of their recent slump with a 57.8 percent one-day rally Monday. Investors welcomed government plans to guarantee over $300 billion of the bank's troubled assets and inject $20 billion from the TARP.
The stock held on to the gains in pre-market trading and indicated a gain of 1.3 percent and moving above the $6 mark.
One investor welcoming the government intervention and stock turnaround was Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. Talal, who is building a 5 percent stake in Citi and who told CNBC he has . The same thing happened in 1991 and he made 10 times his money.
A valid question at this point is why wait until now to do this. It was clear that we were in trouble 2 months ago. We need to take out the lows before they did this? I'll let you answer that question.
The Fed, in another massive life-support move to triage the U.S. financial system, on Tuesday announced a $600 billion program to buy mortgage-related debt and securities and a $200 billion facility to buy consumer debt securities.
The U.S. central bank said it would buy up to $100 billion in debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, the government-sponsored mortgage finance enterprises. The Fed also said it would buy up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.
A government bailout for Citigroup and clarity on the incoming government's economic team helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average secure a 4.9 percent gain Monday, adding to Friday's near 500-point leap.
FNM .50 and FRE .62 look like a buy to me here at these price. I am not buying big just adding to my position. Still expect these to take time
This is good:
The two trading days mark the best performance for US stocks since the rebound after the 1987 crash. Despite the rally, many investors remained wary of further weakness to come
Citigroup [C 5.95 --- UNCH (0) ] shares clawed back much of their recent slump with a 57.8 percent one-day rally Monday. Investors welcomed government plans to guarantee over $300 billion of the bank's troubled assets and inject $20 billion from the TARP.
The stock held on to the gains in pre-market trading and indicated a gain of 1.3 percent and moving above the $6 mark.
One investor welcoming the government intervention and stock turnaround was Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. Talal, who is building a 5 percent stake in Citi and who told CNBC he has . The same thing happened in 1991 and he made 10 times his money.
A valid question at this point is why wait until now to do this. It was clear that we were in trouble 2 months ago. We need to take out the lows before they did this? I'll let you answer that question.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Please read my Profile
As you follow my Blog I am only posting what I see through my eyes. I post my trades and comment about the market the way that I see it based upon my experience. I am an agressive trader and as such many of my trades may not be appropiate for you. This game is a game of confidence. I have that confidence but that does not mean that my short term calls will be right.
If you like my ideas don't invest on my say so. The last 8 weeks have been the worst I have seen in the past 30 years. Nothing I have seen has been like this. This makes 1987 look like a cake walk.
I will continue to make comments and post trades but I am no longer a financial advisor and do not give advise. As you read my blog please keep this in mind. I know that in the end that I will be pressed on my trades and am prepared for this.
Usually the first couple of buys I put on will be in a losing position. I expect that. I try to make these first two buys small because that is my history. This last selloff I have as many as 6 buys and that is not normal for what I do. That being said I think that the lows have been seen here for now and expect to be profitiable on all of my positions within 5 months.
PS Using margin or options on what I do is a disaster. I look 5 to 6 months out and am usually going against the trend in the beginning. I most often look bad in the beginning of the trade. If I used margin or options I would be broke.
The beat goes on Mikey
If you like my ideas don't invest on my say so. The last 8 weeks have been the worst I have seen in the past 30 years. Nothing I have seen has been like this. This makes 1987 look like a cake walk.
I will continue to make comments and post trades but I am no longer a financial advisor and do not give advise. As you read my blog please keep this in mind. I know that in the end that I will be pressed on my trades and am prepared for this.
Usually the first couple of buys I put on will be in a losing position. I expect that. I try to make these first two buys small because that is my history. This last selloff I have as many as 6 buys and that is not normal for what I do. That being said I think that the lows have been seen here for now and expect to be profitiable on all of my positions within 5 months.
PS Using margin or options on what I do is a disaster. I look 5 to 6 months out and am usually going against the trend in the beginning. I most often look bad in the beginning of the trade. If I used margin or options I would be broke.
The beat goes on Mikey
Hey Shorts ..There is a new Sheriff in town
The new administration will not be behind the curve on the economy. They will be out in front of it. There will be overkill and the overkill will be breath taking. Put that in you pipe and deal with it!!!!!!!!! I'll put it another way this administration screwed up the next one won't
Market reverses on New treasury Sec and Citi Bailout
DJIA 8296 +250 VIX 64.25 Gold 824.90 +34.10 Oil 54.26 +4.33
The game has changed. The new guy at the treasury wanted to save Lehman and is supportive of the TARP. The last administration was in denial until 3 months ago and they did not to bailout anyone and were late to the party. Then on the bailout they only spent half of it. Their respose has been less than was necessary This rally is about the new administration and what they will do. With this move the capitial position in Citi makes it the strong capitial position on the banking industry. They wiped out 300 billion of toxic assets
The selloff last week was like Nero fiddling as Rome burned. The game is now is to take the toxic assets of of the banks books and make the Govenment the holder. That is what this is all about. What a surprise. Last friday Citi was going under and the unseen hand grabbed them as they were falling. Never rule out the unseen hand. The rally we have here make be a big one because no one believes it. The beat goes on Mikey
The game has changed. The new guy at the treasury wanted to save Lehman and is supportive of the TARP. The last administration was in denial until 3 months ago and they did not to bailout anyone and were late to the party. Then on the bailout they only spent half of it. Their respose has been less than was necessary This rally is about the new administration and what they will do. With this move the capitial position in Citi makes it the strong capitial position on the banking industry. They wiped out 300 billion of toxic assets
The selloff last week was like Nero fiddling as Rome burned. The game is now is to take the toxic assets of of the banks books and make the Govenment the holder. That is what this is all about. What a surprise. Last friday Citi was going under and the unseen hand grabbed them as they were falling. Never rule out the unseen hand. The rally we have here make be a big one because no one believes it. The beat goes on Mikey
Friday, November 21, 2008
Citibank ..If I liked it at 13 I love it a 4
I am calling bullshit on this price I added on at 4 your move boys!!!!!
Wanna buy a bank?
8:14 DJIA 7540 -9.24 VIX 77.33 (unreal) Gold 788.20 +39.50 Oil 49.40 -.20
The markets are having a going out of business sale on the banks today. There is said to be no confidence in Paulson and the financial system. Gold is reacting like the world is comming to and end and maybe it is. The stock market is breaking its lows. I am hearing that it will not be a fast turn around and not to expect a big rally from here. I like this kind of talk. The conditions are ripe as they can get now for a big rally as the traders are clearly giving up on the bottom now. This is maximum fear. I will continue to bet on the system and have added to UYG 3.66 and XLF 9.00 today. We have fallen over the edge of the cliff and as I said yesterday Armageddon is at hand. Will the invisible hand grab us as we fall. I have been here before and the hand was always there. Stay tuned to this blog and we will find out.
On Gold I beleive that this is a great short here and will be buying more DZZ very soon will let you know. My beliefs are being challenged I will play out this hand as they deal the cards. I am holding a straight flush and I think they have a pair of 2's and are bluffing. If they have a Royal flush they win. The beat goes on ...Mikey
The markets are having a going out of business sale on the banks today. There is said to be no confidence in Paulson and the financial system. Gold is reacting like the world is comming to and end and maybe it is. The stock market is breaking its lows. I am hearing that it will not be a fast turn around and not to expect a big rally from here. I like this kind of talk. The conditions are ripe as they can get now for a big rally as the traders are clearly giving up on the bottom now. This is maximum fear. I will continue to bet on the system and have added to UYG 3.66 and XLF 9.00 today. We have fallen over the edge of the cliff and as I said yesterday Armageddon is at hand. Will the invisible hand grab us as we fall. I have been here before and the hand was always there. Stay tuned to this blog and we will find out.
On Gold I beleive that this is a great short here and will be buying more DZZ very soon will let you know. My beliefs are being challenged I will play out this hand as they deal the cards. I am holding a straight flush and I think they have a pair of 2's and are bluffing. If they have a Royal flush they win. The beat goes on ...Mikey
Thursday, November 20, 2008
On the edge of a cliff
DJIA 8106 VIX 73.83(amazingly oversold)Gold 751 +15 Oil 51.03 -2.59
We are hanging on to the lows at the last bastion of support before argameddon. It is one day before options expiration and the puts are salavating over all the bad news. For the past Eon they have never paid the puts in this situation. I don't expect the break now. Maybe going out of the next expiration but not now.
Bought my 5 th buy on the UYG at 4 bucks today..such a deal!! I'm gonna be rich I tell ya. I think before we launch the next rally the lows have to go so I am holding off any adds to the SSO or UYM or DIG positions. Everything else is the same.
I have been about as wrong as you can be on the short term lately. My thinking was that there would be an oversold bounce in the commoditites and the markets off the retest of 10000. I was looking for a bounce before the break but got caught up in the bailout hype. That obviously was a sucker play and I bit. I have taken some trades along the way but it has been a costly mistake to try to play a bounce on a bear market. That being said I now will go to war with them and will just keep buying until they pay me. That is were I am now. A nice break of the lows with alot of woe is me noise would give me the opportunity to load up again. For now I just wait and see which way they go with this one.
10:15 Auto loan agreement worked out in Senate GM 3.60 traded to 4. I expect it to seel off like everthing else that got bailed out.
10:21 Just kidding it make not be a deal a "non starter" by the House
Yuck Yuck
We are hanging on to the lows at the last bastion of support before argameddon. It is one day before options expiration and the puts are salavating over all the bad news. For the past Eon they have never paid the puts in this situation. I don't expect the break now. Maybe going out of the next expiration but not now.
Bought my 5 th buy on the UYG at 4 bucks today..such a deal!! I'm gonna be rich I tell ya. I think before we launch the next rally the lows have to go so I am holding off any adds to the SSO or UYM or DIG positions. Everything else is the same.
I have been about as wrong as you can be on the short term lately. My thinking was that there would be an oversold bounce in the commoditites and the markets off the retest of 10000. I was looking for a bounce before the break but got caught up in the bailout hype. That obviously was a sucker play and I bit. I have taken some trades along the way but it has been a costly mistake to try to play a bounce on a bear market. That being said I now will go to war with them and will just keep buying until they pay me. That is were I am now. A nice break of the lows with alot of woe is me noise would give me the opportunity to load up again. For now I just wait and see which way they go with this one.
10:15 Auto loan agreement worked out in Senate GM 3.60 traded to 4. I expect it to seel off like everthing else that got bailed out.
10:21 Just kidding it make not be a deal a "non starter" by the House
Yuck Yuck
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
The world is not comming to an end...Nah!!! Just South of 8000
Prices are acting that way but a break of the lows will set up a huge rally. Watch the XLF and UYG they were the first to roll over and will be the first to rally. Gold and commodities heading for a retest and break. I won't let the break affect my positions I will be a buyer.
Things can and do change in a hurry around here now remember 150 oil, well the market can change that fast too. With the break of the lows Doom and Gloom will be everywhere a buyers paradise.
No buys today but have my finger on the trigger.
The beat goes on...Mikey
Things can and do change in a hurry around here now remember 150 oil, well the market can change that fast too. With the break of the lows Doom and Gloom will be everywhere a buyers paradise.
No buys today but have my finger on the trigger.
The beat goes on...Mikey
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Paulson, Bernanke Defend Their Use of Bailout Fund
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke waged a stout defense on Capitol Hill of their management of a $700 billion financial bailout just one week after the administration abandoned the original strategy behind the rescue.
Focusing the program on infusing billions into banks—and possibly other types of companies— to pump up their capital and bolster lending to customers was deemed a faster and more effective approach to stabilizing the financial system than buying rotten assets from financial institutions, the centerpiece of the original plan, Paulson said.
This is a biggy in understanding what is happening now. The Congress is says you took the money and did not buy troubled assets. You Put it in banks of your choice. They feel that they were decieved. Yes they were and it was planned. Why did they do it that way? It was about leverage. How to leverage the 700 billion by putting it in the fractional banking system. At the same time that they did this they offered the chosen banks the ability to merge with "troubled banks" and to speed up the write offs of the toubled loans of those banks.
It was a bouble bounus for the aquiring bank. It was here is the free money buy this bank and get it off of the books and we will let you write off the loans and speed up the write offs in essence you get to buy the bank for free and cover up the whole mess. Then you go out and leverage 25 billion we gave you and negotiate with the folks in trouble out there.
It is unfair but brilliant if you want to save the system in its current form.
You have to bet on these guys. It is also clear to me that this whole bubble was planned and so was the remedy. I think the financials in a couple of years are extreme winners. UYG 6.04 XLF 11.96 remember these prices 3 years from now. The big winners are C JPM BAC WFC PNC. I like Citi because it is the cheapest.
Focusing the program on infusing billions into banks—and possibly other types of companies— to pump up their capital and bolster lending to customers was deemed a faster and more effective approach to stabilizing the financial system than buying rotten assets from financial institutions, the centerpiece of the original plan, Paulson said.
This is a biggy in understanding what is happening now. The Congress is says you took the money and did not buy troubled assets. You Put it in banks of your choice. They feel that they were decieved. Yes they were and it was planned. Why did they do it that way? It was about leverage. How to leverage the 700 billion by putting it in the fractional banking system. At the same time that they did this they offered the chosen banks the ability to merge with "troubled banks" and to speed up the write offs of the toubled loans of those banks.
It was a bouble bounus for the aquiring bank. It was here is the free money buy this bank and get it off of the books and we will let you write off the loans and speed up the write offs in essence you get to buy the bank for free and cover up the whole mess. Then you go out and leverage 25 billion we gave you and negotiate with the folks in trouble out there.
It is unfair but brilliant if you want to save the system in its current form.
You have to bet on these guys. It is also clear to me that this whole bubble was planned and so was the remedy. I think the financials in a couple of years are extreme winners. UYG 6.04 XLF 11.96 remember these prices 3 years from now. The big winners are C JPM BAC WFC PNC. I like Citi because it is the cheapest.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Welcome to Options Expirations week
I keep hearing that no rallies are possible here or if they are they will be limited. They are playing this one very close to the vest. If there is a rally I am sure that everyone will sell into it. We have had so many failed rallies that I can't count them all. Each rally fails and we seem to have one a day. Each rally is followed by wave after wave of selling squalls. At some point there will be no sellers left and I think we are getting there. There are, however, lots of buyers. Everyone is in cash being safe or the traders are short and shorting every rally. This is an explosive situation. to the upside waiting to happen. When it is ripe it will happen.
I have done nothing today still long and waiting. The G 20 was over the weekend and it was said it accomplished nothing. That is what you would expect at this time and with this news. GM will get the money but the stock will sell off like all the rest that have gotten the money. The critics say we have spent all this money and are getting nothing out of it.
It later stage declines at the end you get into a grinding out move were day after day is a downer. I am starting to believe that this is where we are and would not rule out a break of the lows before we get the rally I am expecting. That would be a depressing feeling for the longs now. That would be the last straw for many traders. If the lows are taken out I am a buyer.
The only thing that guides me is that when I see his much stimulation going into the system and I see the Government debt market selling so much debt at extremely low interest rates I will just stay the course until it works. It is the opposite of what the Fed was doing in 2006 and the first half of 2007. They said it didn't work and the world economy was going to carry us. It didn't matter until it did and now you see the results. This is the opposite. I will stay the course. The beat goes on...Mikey
Note: MCD 56 and YUM 26 touted as bucking the trend recommended as buys. They should be hurt like everything else. MCD is way out of line I am still short this on along with YUM NSC UNP and NKE they all need to catch up.
I have done nothing today still long and waiting. The G 20 was over the weekend and it was said it accomplished nothing. That is what you would expect at this time and with this news. GM will get the money but the stock will sell off like all the rest that have gotten the money. The critics say we have spent all this money and are getting nothing out of it.
It later stage declines at the end you get into a grinding out move were day after day is a downer. I am starting to believe that this is where we are and would not rule out a break of the lows before we get the rally I am expecting. That would be a depressing feeling for the longs now. That would be the last straw for many traders. If the lows are taken out I am a buyer.
The only thing that guides me is that when I see his much stimulation going into the system and I see the Government debt market selling so much debt at extremely low interest rates I will just stay the course until it works. It is the opposite of what the Fed was doing in 2006 and the first half of 2007. They said it didn't work and the world economy was going to carry us. It didn't matter until it did and now you see the results. This is the opposite. I will stay the course. The beat goes on...Mikey
Note: MCD 56 and YUM 26 touted as bucking the trend recommended as buys. They should be hurt like everything else. MCD is way out of line I am still short this on along with YUM NSC UNP and NKE they all need to catch up.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Don't buy Citi (C) 9.45 Thanks for telling us
From CNBC.com
Citigroup is set for more declines after falling below the "critical and vital" support level of $10.40, which was its 1998 low, Royce Tostrams, technical analyst from Tostrams Groep, told CNBC Friday.
"It has triggered another sell signal which means the downtrend will be resumed and the conclusion is don't buy Citigroup yet. You have to remain on the sidelines," Tostrams told "Squawk Box Europe."
Shares of Citi [C 9.45 --- UNCH (0) ] closed at $9.45 on Thursday, having started the year just shy of $30. The next support level is around $3.50 a share, Tostrams said.
The bearish signal extends to the entire financial sector, according to Tostrams.
Tostrams expects the S&P 500 index to hold a sideways trading range in the short term and bounce between 839 and 1045 points.
"Turnover remains very low. There is no conviction in this market," he added.
.
Critical and Vital WOW that must be really important. Hey and double bonus it extend to the whole financial sector. Wait a minute the experts said the stock was cheap at 35 as it broke down from its top but now at 9 bucks we have to sell if after the FED put 25 billion in the bank. The interesting thing is not that this Bozo is saying this but the timing of when they allowed him to come on TV and to pander to everyone' fears about the stock. Your "friends at CNBC all always there to keep you informed. An analogy is when you see T Boone on TV saying Oil is going to 200 it was believable but woops it went to $55.
Notice he says the next support was at 3.50. You know if you own it, now that is a long way for it to fall. What I have observed is that when a stock is either topping or bottoming right at the end of the move the "experts" are on TV telling you saying, you know that price move you just saw, well now, you are really going to see a big one and they pull a number out of their butt that makes you blink. Like when Oil was at the high I heard numbers as high as 500 on a super spike. It always happens at the end. Now Royce suddenly appears on CNBC telling us Citi is going to 3 and that was after our friends Goldman told us on OCT 22 that it was a sell. Go back and read Goldmans research a year ago and at that time the stock was cheap at 35.
This is the game that is played. This stock price is the result of panic selling and with the capital that has been placed in this bank, not to mention that the Government owns part of the damn thing, it is a strong, strong buy if you believe that the US banking system is going to survive.
The last time I saw this type of thing was in the 80's when the loans to South America and Mexico was going to take down the Money Center banks. It had the same feel to it as this does now. They were saying the same thing. I was buying Citi and Bof A in those days. The returns were huge. If you are looking to spot a bottom this kind of thing will happen every time.
By the way, Royce, my man, take a look a the charts the stock broke out in 1995 at guess what 9 bucks. That is support not 3.5
I am buying Citi today at the open ...Thanks Royce and CNBC for the heads up
Citigroup is set for more declines after falling below the "critical and vital" support level of $10.40, which was its 1998 low, Royce Tostrams, technical analyst from Tostrams Groep, told CNBC Friday.
"It has triggered another sell signal which means the downtrend will be resumed and the conclusion is don't buy Citigroup yet. You have to remain on the sidelines," Tostrams told "Squawk Box Europe."
Shares of Citi [C 9.45 --- UNCH (0) ] closed at $9.45 on Thursday, having started the year just shy of $30. The next support level is around $3.50 a share, Tostrams said.
The bearish signal extends to the entire financial sector, according to Tostrams.
Tostrams expects the S&P 500 index to hold a sideways trading range in the short term and bounce between 839 and 1045 points.
"Turnover remains very low. There is no conviction in this market," he added.
.
Critical and Vital WOW that must be really important. Hey and double bonus it extend to the whole financial sector. Wait a minute the experts said the stock was cheap at 35 as it broke down from its top but now at 9 bucks we have to sell if after the FED put 25 billion in the bank. The interesting thing is not that this Bozo is saying this but the timing of when they allowed him to come on TV and to pander to everyone' fears about the stock. Your "friends at CNBC all always there to keep you informed. An analogy is when you see T Boone on TV saying Oil is going to 200 it was believable but woops it went to $55.
Notice he says the next support was at 3.50. You know if you own it, now that is a long way for it to fall. What I have observed is that when a stock is either topping or bottoming right at the end of the move the "experts" are on TV telling you saying, you know that price move you just saw, well now, you are really going to see a big one and they pull a number out of their butt that makes you blink. Like when Oil was at the high I heard numbers as high as 500 on a super spike. It always happens at the end. Now Royce suddenly appears on CNBC telling us Citi is going to 3 and that was after our friends Goldman told us on OCT 22 that it was a sell. Go back and read Goldmans research a year ago and at that time the stock was cheap at 35.
This is the game that is played. This stock price is the result of panic selling and with the capital that has been placed in this bank, not to mention that the Government owns part of the damn thing, it is a strong, strong buy if you believe that the US banking system is going to survive.
The last time I saw this type of thing was in the 80's when the loans to South America and Mexico was going to take down the Money Center banks. It had the same feel to it as this does now. They were saying the same thing. I was buying Citi and Bof A in those days. The returns were huge. If you are looking to spot a bottom this kind of thing will happen every time.
By the way, Royce, my man, take a look a the charts the stock broke out in 1995 at guess what 9 bucks. That is support not 3.5
I am buying Citi today at the open ...Thanks Royce and CNBC for the heads up
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Adding to Positions..Possible reversal today?
Buying UYG 5.91 and XLF 11.86
Buying GM 2.93
11:35 DJIA 8396 +113 VIX 64.44 Gold 719.20 +.19 Oil 58.11 +1.25
Rally looks promising but I will never figure out which one will go. I just buy the cheap prices and wait
Close...Nice day ...The beat goes on Mikey
Buying GM 2.93
11:35 DJIA 8396 +113 VIX 64.44 Gold 719.20 +.19 Oil 58.11 +1.25
Rally looks promising but I will never figure out which one will go. I just buy the cheap prices and wait
Close...Nice day ...The beat goes on Mikey
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Mikey smells a huge rally comming
DJIA 8357 -336
Yes I am still bullish they are just twisting arms here. The beat goes on...Mikey
Yes I am still bullish they are just twisting arms here. The beat goes on...Mikey
Gold is Breaking..
7:56 DJIA 8417 -273 VIX 65.52 Gold 715.10 -17.70 OIL 57.28-2.05 UYG 6.99 -.39 XLF 12.95 -.37
Gold is starting to break down. Would expect all gold stocks to at least retest the lows. Other weak stocks that have held up that should follow are MCD 54.07 -2.22 NSC 52.80-1.93 BNI 82.75 -.50. Keeping a eye on the relative strength of the financials looking to buy these. (UYG or XLF)
Gold is starting to break down. Would expect all gold stocks to at least retest the lows. Other weak stocks that have held up that should follow are MCD 54.07 -2.22 NSC 52.80-1.93 BNI 82.75 -.50. Keeping a eye on the relative strength of the financials looking to buy these. (UYG or XLF)
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Today was a good day to buy
12:56 DJIA 8721 -149
It had Panic, cheap prices, the fed on your side, and has incredible stimulus by the world governments taking place. Buying under these circumstances will produce good results in the long run. These are winning prices and I believe that or I would not do what I do.
It had Panic, cheap prices, the fed on your side, and has incredible stimulus by the world governments taking place. Buying under these circumstances will produce good results in the long run. These are winning prices and I believe that or I would not do what I do.
Oil makes a new low the DIG does not
DJIA 8850 -20 VIX 58.77 Gold 735.40-11.10 Oil 59.82 -2.59
DIG made its low on Oct 16 at 23.50 and oil made a new low today. This is a sign to me that we are bottoming on oil. It is also a sign that the DIG is turning up.
DIG made its low on Oct 16 at 23.50 and oil made a new low today. This is a sign to me that we are bottoming on oil. It is also a sign that the DIG is turning up.
Ugly Day Ugly news
8:50 DJIA 8621 -249 VIX 63.83 Gold 729 -17.50 Oil 59.17 -3.24
The news is so bad I don't know where to begin. The picture being painted here is hopeless. Hopeless Xmas for retailers, hopeless for the banks, hopeless for the homebuilders, hopeless for the auto makers, hopeless for the world economy, hopeless for the oil producers I mean its hopeless. The bailouts all that money is not working, they say. It is just throwing good money after bad. Even the 600 billion by China appears to be not working.
The market has the feel to it that it wants to retest the lows. GM is back to 1943 prices. Uncertainilty has given way to the certainty of going off a cliff. Hell, I am starting to believe its hopeless...Nah just kidding. The bailouts are incredible stimulative but it will not show in in the last quarter stats which is what they are focusing on now.
The price declines just create better buying opportunies. But I have to admit I have not done anything for a while and they have me blinking today. Still no add on in GM now at 2.82 will let you know if I do. Canceling my buy on BBY. Well at least one of my positions is up...the gold short.
The beat goes on...Mikey
The news is so bad I don't know where to begin. The picture being painted here is hopeless. Hopeless Xmas for retailers, hopeless for the banks, hopeless for the homebuilders, hopeless for the auto makers, hopeless for the world economy, hopeless for the oil producers I mean its hopeless. The bailouts all that money is not working, they say. It is just throwing good money after bad. Even the 600 billion by China appears to be not working.
The market has the feel to it that it wants to retest the lows. GM is back to 1943 prices. Uncertainilty has given way to the certainty of going off a cliff. Hell, I am starting to believe its hopeless...Nah just kidding. The bailouts are incredible stimulative but it will not show in in the last quarter stats which is what they are focusing on now.
The price declines just create better buying opportunies. But I have to admit I have not done anything for a while and they have me blinking today. Still no add on in GM now at 2.82 will let you know if I do. Canceling my buy on BBY. Well at least one of my positions is up...the gold short.
The beat goes on...Mikey
Monday, November 10, 2008
Expect DJIA to be at or near 10000 by November 22
The delusional Mikey the Market Shadow expects the DJIA to be 10000 by November 22. What is going to cause this 1100 point rally? I don't know just call it a hunch.
Lots of problems but market still closes 1000 points above lows
DJIA 8870 -73.27 VIX 59.98 Gold 746.20 +12
Its ugly out there. I mean Goldman is making a new low , GM is going to zero, Circuit City going bankrupt, woe is me. The news is not just rally bad it's scary isn't it? But that's the news from the last 3 months. The DJIA made its low on Oct 10th at 7894 we closed today at 8870. I think that in the next 3 months hope will return and so will higher prices. The beat goes on.....Mikey
Looking to buy Best Buy (BBY) on weakness at about 23.50 will let you know
Its ugly out there. I mean Goldman is making a new low , GM is going to zero, Circuit City going bankrupt, woe is me. The news is not just rally bad it's scary isn't it? But that's the news from the last 3 months. The DJIA made its low on Oct 10th at 7894 we closed today at 8870. I think that in the next 3 months hope will return and so will higher prices. The beat goes on.....Mikey
Looking to buy Best Buy (BBY) on weakness at about 23.50 will let you know
D Bank says GM (3.38) price target is ZERO..Mikey says its 10
We all know where GM is going now ...aaaa its zero. They say even if it gets the bailout money its going to zero. Well at least we know our downside risk. We also know that the folks that bought it on margin are having to put cash in the account. This is a good reason not to buy on margin because when the bottom comes this is what they do.
I still think that this stock goes to 10. Its Mikey VS D Bank. Personally I think D Bank wants the stock along with every other Investment house out there. Will Mikey dodge another bullet stay tuned to this blog and find out the exciting conclusion to this episode. PS I am trying to stay good and not buy this stock until it closes over 4 but I am weakening.
PS if you were GM and you wanted 25 to 50 billion what kind of earnings would you report?????? That's right me too. By the way if you did this and the stock broke to a new low and you knew you wre going to get the money would you buy your own stock?? Me too. The beat goes on...Mikey
I still think that this stock goes to 10. Its Mikey VS D Bank. Personally I think D Bank wants the stock along with every other Investment house out there. Will Mikey dodge another bullet stay tuned to this blog and find out the exciting conclusion to this episode. PS I am trying to stay good and not buy this stock until it closes over 4 but I am weakening.
PS if you were GM and you wanted 25 to 50 billion what kind of earnings would you report?????? That's right me too. By the way if you did this and the stock broke to a new low and you knew you wre going to get the money would you buy your own stock?? Me too. The beat goes on...Mikey
600 billion from China
7:28 DJIA 9099 +155 VIX 56.22 Gold 753.40 +19.20 Oil 63.87 +2.83
Stocks Open Higher on China Plan, AIG News
Stocks shot out of the gate Monday, helped by developments in the financial sector and China's near-$600 billion economic stimulus plan, announced over the weekend.
Insurer American International Group [AIG 2.55 0.44 (+20.85%) ] posted a bigger-than-expected loss for the third quarter before the bell. AIG's adjusted net loss was $3.42 per share, or $9.24 billion, for the quarter, while analysts had on average expected a loss of 90 cents a share.
But the company also confirmed it has restructured its bailout package, with the government taking a $40 billion capital stake in the company.
This is the news from GM this AM:
Automakers also continued to come under pressure, with General Motors shares tumbling more than 10 percent premarket after Deutsche Bank cut its opinion on the company from hold to sell and set a price target of $0. Deutsche said GM [GM 3.27 -1.09 (-25%) ] may not be able to continue operations past December without government help.
My take is that they of course will get a bailout. I have 2 positions here 5.62 and 4.38. I will not add here will wait until either they get all of the sellers out of the way or they go bellie up. I will start buying after the stock closes above its breakdown of 4
On AIG I have 2 positions on AIG with average cost of 3.10 The new restructure should give them time to get their act together the Government has a stake in this and I will bet on the government. This is a long term deal not a quicky.
Stocks Open Higher on China Plan, AIG News
Stocks shot out of the gate Monday, helped by developments in the financial sector and China's near-$600 billion economic stimulus plan, announced over the weekend.
Insurer American International Group [AIG 2.55 0.44 (+20.85%) ] posted a bigger-than-expected loss for the third quarter before the bell. AIG's adjusted net loss was $3.42 per share, or $9.24 billion, for the quarter, while analysts had on average expected a loss of 90 cents a share.
But the company also confirmed it has restructured its bailout package, with the government taking a $40 billion capital stake in the company.
This is the news from GM this AM:
Automakers also continued to come under pressure, with General Motors shares tumbling more than 10 percent premarket after Deutsche Bank cut its opinion on the company from hold to sell and set a price target of $0. Deutsche said GM [GM 3.27 -1.09 (-25%) ] may not be able to continue operations past December without government help.
My take is that they of course will get a bailout. I have 2 positions here 5.62 and 4.38. I will not add here will wait until either they get all of the sellers out of the way or they go bellie up. I will start buying after the stock closes above its breakdown of 4
On AIG I have 2 positions on AIG with average cost of 3.10 The new restructure should give them time to get their act together the Government has a stake in this and I will bet on the government. This is a long term deal not a quicky.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Have you heard? The Economy is really really bad
9:38 DJIA 8840 +144 VIX 58.57 Gold 732.50 unch Oil 61.25 +.48
I thought I would tell you that in case you have been living in a cave. Bad Jobs, bad auto sales, bad retail sales, bad housing sales, bad jobs numbers, failing banks, failing insurance companies, bad government. You get the picture its bad. Now to top it all off Ford and GM have gut wrenching sales and earnings. Have I missed anything? We need a miracle right. As Al Michaels said do you believe in Miracles....YESSSSS. In the world of investing when you have a situation like this one miracles do happen.
I remain commited to the my long positions. I will buy when the opportunity presents itself. To me GM represents an opportunity to me. The wisdom of uncertainty guides my approach and I would say we have maximun uncertainty here.
Will buy GM on close today bought small piece of DXO(double oil long) today at 4.88.
I thought I would tell you that in case you have been living in a cave. Bad Jobs, bad auto sales, bad retail sales, bad housing sales, bad jobs numbers, failing banks, failing insurance companies, bad government. You get the picture its bad. Now to top it all off Ford and GM have gut wrenching sales and earnings. Have I missed anything? We need a miracle right. As Al Michaels said do you believe in Miracles....YESSSSS. In the world of investing when you have a situation like this one miracles do happen.
I remain commited to the my long positions. I will buy when the opportunity presents itself. To me GM represents an opportunity to me. The wisdom of uncertainty guides my approach and I would say we have maximun uncertainty here.
Will buy GM on close today bought small piece of DXO(double oil long) today at 4.88.
GM ...No bailout ...Give me a break
Barack is the president now not George the oil man Bush. There is talk of letting it go on CNBC by Larry Kudlow. Kudlow says they have a bad business model and they should be allowed to fail. I know Larry will say its socialism. Maybe so, but if you guys would not have screwed up the system buy letting anybody do anyhting they wanted this would not be necessary. To that I say that the government had a bad business model and that caused GM and Ford to have these problems . This is a liquidity problem brought on by a banking system run wild. If there is liquidity in the system, and there will be, their model works just fine.
By the way they didn't just start changing their model last week. They have been working on it for 4 years.
Hey Larry ain't gonna happen you breauocratic moran. I buy the close on GM.
George Bush would let them go but not Barack Obama and the Democratically controlled Congress and Senate. Can you just see Nancy Pelosi saying let them eat cake. Well the beat goes on...Mikey
By the way they didn't just start changing their model last week. They have been working on it for 4 years.
Hey Larry ain't gonna happen you breauocratic moran. I buy the close on GM.
George Bush would let them go but not Barack Obama and the Democratically controlled Congress and Senate. Can you just see Nancy Pelosi saying let them eat cake. Well the beat goes on...Mikey
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Massive Rally close ...Going to 11000 year end
DJAI 8747 -297 VIX 63.76 Gold 733 -9.40 Oil 61.05 -4.90
I DON'T BELIEVE THIS SELLOFF. I BELIEVE WE ARE GOING TO 11000 BY THE END OF THE YEAR. MY CALL ON THE DOLLAR IS EARLY GOLD LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON ITS DEATH BED...
WILL BUY THE SSO ON THE CLOSE.
I DON'T BELIEVE THIS SELLOFF. I BELIEVE WE ARE GOING TO 11000 BY THE END OF THE YEAR. MY CALL ON THE DOLLAR IS EARLY GOLD LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON ITS DEATH BED...
WILL BUY THE SSO ON THE CLOSE.
The news is ugly Yada Yda Yda
OK so the economic news bad right. It has been bad ever since the rally started we are still at 9000 up 1300 points. The rally is about liqudiity not the economy I remain positive about my long positions.
Correction to Oil is bottoming..buying DXO not DGP
I listed the wrong ETF the Oil long ETF is DXO not DGP I will try that in the mid 4 area.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Gold and the Dollar
I am starting to believe that the dollar will pullback and Gold will selloff at the same time. This will keep the Gold Bugs in the long side and get the shorts out. Just a hunch. I remain commited to the short gold trade (DZZ).
Let the bottom pickers out and let the shorters short
DJIA 9364 -262 VIX 49.09 Gold 742.50 -14.80 Oil 65.80 -4.73
Just like they said not follow thru on the rally after the election. This is an easy sell and short after a 2000 point rally that made absolutely no sense. This is not a top we will go higher.
Just like they said not follow thru on the rally after the election. This is an easy sell and short after a 2000 point rally that made absolutely no sense. This is not a top we will go higher.
Oil 65.34 is bottoming
Oil is bottoming and the experts are looking down because of the weak economy. I will put a bid in on the DGP(double long oil index) in the 12.50 area. This will be my first buy
Barack Wins .Hey that's no reason to buy the market....Perfect
6:55 DJIA 9462 -170 VIX 49.85 Gold 752.60 -4.70 Oil 68.48 -2.05
Election Is No Reason to Buy Stocks: Analysts
Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election is not a good enough reason for stocks to rally, as it does not change the fundamental problems of the world economy, analysts told CNBC Wednesday. "This is another, if I may use my term, 'fally', which is a rally based on fallacy … the rally of a new presidential election. Nothing is changed. The US economy is deteriorating day by day. There's no reason to rally right now," Kirby Daley, senior strategist at Newedge Group, told "Worldwide Exchange.
We have just rallied almost 2000 points off of the low for no apparent reason. That works for me. I don't need reasons. We get reasons to buy I will start selling.
Election Is No Reason to Buy Stocks: Analysts
Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election is not a good enough reason for stocks to rally, as it does not change the fundamental problems of the world economy, analysts told CNBC Wednesday. "This is another, if I may use my term, 'fally', which is a rally based on fallacy … the rally of a new presidential election. Nothing is changed. The US economy is deteriorating day by day. There's no reason to rally right now," Kirby Daley, senior strategist at Newedge Group, told "Worldwide Exchange.
We have just rallied almost 2000 points off of the low for no apparent reason. That works for me. I don't need reasons. We get reasons to buy I will start selling.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Dollar weak near term Buy UYM and DIG
Expect near term weakness in dollar should lead to commodities and oil rally. These two should rally dramatically. This is just a short term thing a sharp rally that will be your last chance to short them for the hit that will come next year.
Canceling my buy of DZZ at 33.75 and reenterning at 29
Canceling my buy of DZZ at 33.75 and reenterning at 29
TARP may be expanded
DJIA 9580 +260 VIX 45.75 Gold 743 +16.40 Oil 66.87 +2.96
Remember the 700 billion. First it was just to buy bad mortgages. Then it was to be directed to certain banks. Well now it may be expanding to a broader group of unregulated financial companies, GE and CIT are mentioned. That means they get the money and the Treasury has an equity position. I think end the end no one will be left out. The DJIA is now up 260 to 9580 Still good news but not the kind of news that is a deal breaker. Good for the financials you bet. Before its all over I think everyone even the lowly Autos get a piece of the pie. What I am think is that there will be an economic bailout package similar to the financials announced in the months after the election.
VIX is in full retreat now when it gets into the 20's the rally will be 90% over.
Gold having a good day I am look to add to DZZ in the 33 area. Still holding all previous long positions no adds.
As an aside, notice how Cramers DE tout yesterday is up 3 points today. His act is that in the short term his picks work, in the long term it kills you.
8:45 GOLD 762 +35 Entered buy on DZZ at 33.75
Target on this rally is 10200
Remember the 700 billion. First it was just to buy bad mortgages. Then it was to be directed to certain banks. Well now it may be expanding to a broader group of unregulated financial companies, GE and CIT are mentioned. That means they get the money and the Treasury has an equity position. I think end the end no one will be left out. The DJIA is now up 260 to 9580 Still good news but not the kind of news that is a deal breaker. Good for the financials you bet. Before its all over I think everyone even the lowly Autos get a piece of the pie. What I am think is that there will be an economic bailout package similar to the financials announced in the months after the election.
VIX is in full retreat now when it gets into the 20's the rally will be 90% over.
Gold having a good day I am look to add to DZZ in the 33 area. Still holding all previous long positions no adds.
As an aside, notice how Cramers DE tout yesterday is up 3 points today. His act is that in the short term his picks work, in the long term it kills you.
8:45 GOLD 762 +35 Entered buy on DZZ at 33.75
Target on this rally is 10200
Monday, November 3, 2008
New Feature..The Cramer Watch.. DE 39.03
Cramer is a stock tout on CNBC. I am going to keep track of his touts so we can track his act. I have done this for two years and he has a definite pattern.
Today's tout DE 39.03
Reason the selloff was overdone everything is still going good for the company. He interviewed the CEO on his show.
Lets track this one. I will track 5 stocks a week and see what they do in the short and long term You may want to write these stocks down so you can learn his act.
Today's tout DE 39.03
Reason the selloff was overdone everything is still going good for the company. He interviewed the CEO on his show.
Lets track this one. I will track 5 stocks a week and see what they do in the short and long term You may want to write these stocks down so you can learn his act.
Here comes the Election ..What are they saying?
12:16 DJIA 9287 -35 uptrend VIX 54.76 topping Gold 725 +6.80 topping Oil 63.98 -3.83bottoming
This is what they are putting out on CNBC:
Stocks are likely to get a bounce after Tuesday's presidential election, but worries about the economy and credit crisis may keep the rally short.
CNBC.com
Barack Obama & John McCain
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While the election remains important to the market, expectations of a Democratic victory may already be priced in, market watchers say.
Polls have shown for weeks that Democrat Barack Obama has a fairly substantial lead, so analysts think only an upset win by Republican John McCain could have a significant impact on stocks.
"I'm not necessarily sure we're going to see a significant change in the next week, primarily because I think the market's already betting on a Democratic win and it would only be a Republican win that could change the market in the short term," says Michael Kresh, president of M.D. Kresh Financial Services in Islandia, N.Y.
Kresh thinks Wall Street already has rendered its verdict on the prospect of an Obama victory and the Democrats retaining control over Congress.
"I believe that the market believes that a Democratic Congress and a Democratic president is probably not a good thing," Kresh says. "If the market is nervous about that, it should already be reflected in the market. And a McCain election would be a surprise."
What they are saying is there will be a short bounce and the only way the market will rally is if McCain wins. I will buy the pullback if Obama wins. I hope we can selloff to below 9000. If McCain wins and we rally to 10000 I sell. Those are my parameters for the near term.
This is what they are putting out on CNBC:
Stocks are likely to get a bounce after Tuesday's presidential election, but worries about the economy and credit crisis may keep the rally short.
CNBC.com
Barack Obama & John McCain
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While the election remains important to the market, expectations of a Democratic victory may already be priced in, market watchers say.
Polls have shown for weeks that Democrat Barack Obama has a fairly substantial lead, so analysts think only an upset win by Republican John McCain could have a significant impact on stocks.
"I'm not necessarily sure we're going to see a significant change in the next week, primarily because I think the market's already betting on a Democratic win and it would only be a Republican win that could change the market in the short term," says Michael Kresh, president of M.D. Kresh Financial Services in Islandia, N.Y.
Kresh thinks Wall Street already has rendered its verdict on the prospect of an Obama victory and the Democrats retaining control over Congress.
"I believe that the market believes that a Democratic Congress and a Democratic president is probably not a good thing," Kresh says. "If the market is nervous about that, it should already be reflected in the market. And a McCain election would be a surprise."
What they are saying is there will be a short bounce and the only way the market will rally is if McCain wins. I will buy the pullback if Obama wins. I hope we can selloff to below 9000. If McCain wins and we rally to 10000 I sell. Those are my parameters for the near term.
Damn there is a Gold ad on my Blog. I love it
Gold 729.70 +11.50
Everyone click on this ad for Blanchard to see why Gold is going up. Wow I am sponsering a Gold advertisement. That blows my mind. The beat goes on.
Everyone click on this ad for Blanchard to see why Gold is going up. Wow I am sponsering a Gold advertisement. That blows my mind. The beat goes on.
Would you buy an Auto stock now??? I would..Why because they are going to double. Read this to find out why
9:14 DJIA 9375 +46.59 VIX 54.50
Raise you hands if you would buy a US auto stock now. That was the question given to a panel of experts on CNBC just now. That also was just after Ford (2.19) realeased the worst auto sales since 1980. The reaction was predictable. Why buy these when there are so many other cheap stocks out there to buy. GM is 5.56 and Ford is 2.19. They have to be doubles from here and in a fairly short period of time. I just bought GM friday and will buy F here.
What will happen after the new Pres...insert name...takes over is that there will be a massive bailout for the auto makers and the stocks will double or triple.
If you rememeber my call on the airlines in July when oil was going to 200...well this is the same kind of thing. The airlines all doubled and tripled and I would expect GM and F to do the same. The experts will then recommend them because they will make more sense then. The beat goes on...Mikey
Raise you hands if you would buy a US auto stock now. That was the question given to a panel of experts on CNBC just now. That also was just after Ford (2.19) realeased the worst auto sales since 1980. The reaction was predictable. Why buy these when there are so many other cheap stocks out there to buy. GM is 5.56 and Ford is 2.19. They have to be doubles from here and in a fairly short period of time. I just bought GM friday and will buy F here.
What will happen after the new Pres...insert name...takes over is that there will be a massive bailout for the auto makers and the stocks will double or triple.
If you rememeber my call on the airlines in July when oil was going to 200...well this is the same kind of thing. The airlines all doubled and tripled and I would expect GM and F to do the same. The experts will then recommend them because they will make more sense then. The beat goes on...Mikey
Where are we now ,,,What is the game now
8:39 DJIA 9348 +23.10 VIX 55.77 Gold 726 +8.70 Oil 65.84 -1.87
What they need to do now is to convince the traders that the market discounts the future and will bottom before the economy does. That these prices are so low that you have to buy now. That everyone knows that things are going to be bad and that is baked into the prices now it is discounted and it should be bought. We will rally until the majority of traders and shorts believe this. Then and only then will they blow this thing away. We are not there yet.
Things will be bad, really bad and next year will be a disaster for the economy and the stock market but the insiders need to sell the stock that they just bought at higher prices before we will rollover and blow the lows out. The jobs report is going to be bad ...who cares. The next round of earnings and economic news will be in Feb. that is most likely the next time the market gets it butt kicked. The VIX index indicates alot of puts have been bought most of these puts will have expired by Feb. This is where I think we are now.
The same type of thing happened in 9/1/01 (911). The market went into a tail spin and the Fed stepped in and pour massive liquidity into the markets. That produced a 4 month rally from Sept into Feb of '02. That rally was from 8000 to 10500. Stocks looked cheap at those prices and the rally was very exciting. The problem was that the economy did not bottom until Oct '02. The market bottomed in Oct '02 at 7200 or 800 points lower than the 911 low. It tried to retest that low in Mar '03 when we were going to war. So it was about a year to a year and a half later until you wanted to be in the market. This event looks very similar to me. I would expect a rally attempt until early next year maybe as high as 11500 and then a lower low in about the high 6000's. For now I am trading this rally until I see the traders embrace the stock market is cheap theme. The beat goes on...Mikey
What they need to do now is to convince the traders that the market discounts the future and will bottom before the economy does. That these prices are so low that you have to buy now. That everyone knows that things are going to be bad and that is baked into the prices now it is discounted and it should be bought. We will rally until the majority of traders and shorts believe this. Then and only then will they blow this thing away. We are not there yet.
Things will be bad, really bad and next year will be a disaster for the economy and the stock market but the insiders need to sell the stock that they just bought at higher prices before we will rollover and blow the lows out. The jobs report is going to be bad ...who cares. The next round of earnings and economic news will be in Feb. that is most likely the next time the market gets it butt kicked. The VIX index indicates alot of puts have been bought most of these puts will have expired by Feb. This is where I think we are now.
The same type of thing happened in 9/1/01 (911). The market went into a tail spin and the Fed stepped in and pour massive liquidity into the markets. That produced a 4 month rally from Sept into Feb of '02. That rally was from 8000 to 10500. Stocks looked cheap at those prices and the rally was very exciting. The problem was that the economy did not bottom until Oct '02. The market bottomed in Oct '02 at 7200 or 800 points lower than the 911 low. It tried to retest that low in Mar '03 when we were going to war. So it was about a year to a year and a half later until you wanted to be in the market. This event looks very similar to me. I would expect a rally attempt until early next year maybe as high as 11500 and then a lower low in about the high 6000's. For now I am trading this rally until I see the traders embrace the stock market is cheap theme. The beat goes on...Mikey
Today's economic news "Worse than expected" Geez
7:51 DJIA 9369 +77.87 VIX 56.27 falling Gold 727.90 +9.70 Oil 65.65 -2.17
U.S. factory activity contracted sharply in October, falling to its lowest in 26 years as the financial crisis ravaged the world's largest economy, an industry report showed.
Pretty grim," said Robert Macintosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Corp in Boston. "It means we're in a recession, it's as simple as that...a pretty solid manufacturing recession...The question is how long or deep is it going to be? Where is this group of economists that is charged with declaring a recession? Why haven't they said anything?"
The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity fell to 38.9 in October from 43.5 in September. The level of 50 separates contraction from expansion, and a reading below 40 is exceptionally weak.
On Wall Street, stocks briefly turned lower after the weaker-than-expected data, while the dollar trimmed its gains versus the yen.
Economists had expected a reading of 41.5, according to the median of forecasts in a Reuters poll.
The report was uniformly weak, and employment in the sector was dismal. The ISM's gauge of employment fell to its lowest since March 1991 and suffered its biggest one-month drop in 20 years.
The data foreshadowed a grim outlook, with the index of new orders hitting its lowest since 1980.
Meanwhile, a separate report showed construction spending fell by a smaller-than-expected amount in September as a rebound in nonresidential activity helped offset further weakness in home building.
The Commerce Department says construction spending dropped by 0.3 percent in September, less than the 0.8 percent decline many economists had been expecting. Spending had been up by 0.3 percent in August after a huge 2.4 percent plunge in July.
The weakness in September was led by a 1.3 percent drop in housing construction, which has fallen every month but two over the past 30 months. Spending on government projects fell by 1.3 percent, the biggest setback since January.
Worse than expected what the hell were you expecting?
Against this kind of news background the DJIA has rallied for 5 straight days for 1360 points.
This is the background as the market works its way higher. It will do so until hope comes back Gold collapses and stocks look cheap. They are still not sure of the rally that is good. We are going higher. In the short term we are up against the rally high of Oct 29 we are stalling here to let the bottom pickers of that rally out now. When they sell out we go higher.
U.S. factory activity contracted sharply in October, falling to its lowest in 26 years as the financial crisis ravaged the world's largest economy, an industry report showed.
Pretty grim," said Robert Macintosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Corp in Boston. "It means we're in a recession, it's as simple as that...a pretty solid manufacturing recession...The question is how long or deep is it going to be? Where is this group of economists that is charged with declaring a recession? Why haven't they said anything?"
The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity fell to 38.9 in October from 43.5 in September. The level of 50 separates contraction from expansion, and a reading below 40 is exceptionally weak.
On Wall Street, stocks briefly turned lower after the weaker-than-expected data, while the dollar trimmed its gains versus the yen.
Economists had expected a reading of 41.5, according to the median of forecasts in a Reuters poll.
The report was uniformly weak, and employment in the sector was dismal. The ISM's gauge of employment fell to its lowest since March 1991 and suffered its biggest one-month drop in 20 years.
The data foreshadowed a grim outlook, with the index of new orders hitting its lowest since 1980.
Meanwhile, a separate report showed construction spending fell by a smaller-than-expected amount in September as a rebound in nonresidential activity helped offset further weakness in home building.
The Commerce Department says construction spending dropped by 0.3 percent in September, less than the 0.8 percent decline many economists had been expecting. Spending had been up by 0.3 percent in August after a huge 2.4 percent plunge in July.
The weakness in September was led by a 1.3 percent drop in housing construction, which has fallen every month but two over the past 30 months. Spending on government projects fell by 1.3 percent, the biggest setback since January.
Worse than expected what the hell were you expecting?
Against this kind of news background the DJIA has rallied for 5 straight days for 1360 points.
This is the background as the market works its way higher. It will do so until hope comes back Gold collapses and stocks look cheap. They are still not sure of the rally that is good. We are going higher. In the short term we are up against the rally high of Oct 29 we are stalling here to let the bottom pickers of that rally out now. When they sell out we go higher.
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