8:13 DJAI 9212 +35.28 VIX 61.89 Gold 734.40 -4.10 Oil 95-.96
The VIX is reflecting the drop in fear levels now down to low 60's the credit markets are starting to function and the tone of the markets is starting to turn from fear to the world may not be comming to an end. The traders have not embraced the rally yet but are starting to look. Still early in this rally to worry. I am staying long the market and short Gold. Bought some GM today at 5.92
9:26 DJIA 9229 +48 VIX 60.13 Gold 728 -10.50 Oil 64.39 -1.57
Airline now in vouge DAL 11.20 above its 200 day and back to its March 10 breakdown.
Probably getting close to a near term top. The low was 4 bucks on Jul 16 you know when oil was going to 200. My My how things can change. I like the oils better now that its going to 40 don't you know Taking profit on DAL here. By the way GM is where DAL was in July so don't be surprised of GM is selling for 12 to 15 in 3 months
Hey Derrick looks good at this price for 1 unit
Hearing JP Morgan is stopping foreclosure will work out terms with those in trouble. This is going to expand to a kinder gentler banking system. Cumbaya Cumbuya
10:19 DJIA 9305 +125 VIX 58.90 Falling Gold 725.90 -12.60 Oil 64.23 -1.23
Through the 20 day next resistance is at the 50 day which is at 10300 "the breakdown".
10:39 Gold 720 -18.40 is on the window ledge and I am yelling Jump Jump Jump
11:39 DJIA 9360 +178 I want to document this. Art Cashen the technical market expert on CNBC says that he is not buying yet and will wait until the G 20 report on the strong dollar report on Nov 15 before he will get the all clear signal. You will get the all clear signal when the financial stocks...UYG XLF take off.
By the way when they give the all clear signal Mikey will be moving to the sidelines.
Next week I will do a blog and give you analogy of where I think this market is now
That's it for now ..The beat goes on....Mikey
Friday, October 31, 2008
Not a V or even a U its a bathtub
7:42 DJIA 9181 UNCH VIX 63.52 Gold 738.90 -.40 Oil 65.41 -.55
U.S. stocks turned mixed Friday after one report showed the worst drop in consumer sentiment on record and another showed personal spending fell for the first time in two years.
Traders noted that pension funds were buying stocks to rebalance their portfolios as today is the last day of the October.
Major U.S. Indexes.DJIA9187.386.69+0.07%193,059,000.NCOMP1695.39-3.13-0.18%202,280,300.SPX953.29-0.80-0.08%915,844,500
Indeed, there will many a sigh of relief today as we bid adieu to October, which is typically a one of the worst months of the year for the market, but this year, turned out to be the worst October since 1987, when the stock market crashed.
Still, it won't be all smooth sailing from here.
First, we have to get through the election on Tuesday. Then, the economy.
"There’s a lot of things not in this market," Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, told CNBC. "This market is still working its way out of crisis mode. It hasn’t come to grips with the recession that’s coming up, which is not going to look like a V or a U, it’s going to look like a bathtub and that will carry us longer and further than we would care to be."
By the way Art was looking for a rretest of 7700 last week he is still not convinced.
The Reuters/University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment dropped to 57.6 in October from 70.3 in September, its steepest drop on record. However, a mid-October reading had indicated as much, so the report came as little surprise to the market.
Personal spending fell 0.3 percent, marking the first time in two years that consumers have cut their spending, even as income ticked up 0.1 percent. Spending came in as expected but economists expected a slightly higher bump in income.
The VIX is falling and the markets are calming down. This is the first step in getting the traders back into the long side. The DJIA is hanging just above the 2o day average and just below the last rally high. Place your bets
U.S. stocks turned mixed Friday after one report showed the worst drop in consumer sentiment on record and another showed personal spending fell for the first time in two years.
Traders noted that pension funds were buying stocks to rebalance their portfolios as today is the last day of the October.
Major U.S. Indexes.DJIA9187.386.69+0.07%193,059,000.NCOMP1695.39-3.13-0.18%202,280,300.SPX953.29-0.80-0.08%915,844,500
Indeed, there will many a sigh of relief today as we bid adieu to October, which is typically a one of the worst months of the year for the market, but this year, turned out to be the worst October since 1987, when the stock market crashed.
Still, it won't be all smooth sailing from here.
First, we have to get through the election on Tuesday. Then, the economy.
"There’s a lot of things not in this market," Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, told CNBC. "This market is still working its way out of crisis mode. It hasn’t come to grips with the recession that’s coming up, which is not going to look like a V or a U, it’s going to look like a bathtub and that will carry us longer and further than we would care to be."
By the way Art was looking for a rretest of 7700 last week he is still not convinced.
The Reuters/University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment dropped to 57.6 in October from 70.3 in September, its steepest drop on record. However, a mid-October reading had indicated as much, so the report came as little surprise to the market.
Personal spending fell 0.3 percent, marking the first time in two years that consumers have cut their spending, even as income ticked up 0.1 percent. Spending came in as expected but economists expected a slightly higher bump in income.
The VIX is falling and the markets are calming down. This is the first step in getting the traders back into the long side. The DJIA is hanging just above the 2o day average and just below the last rally high. Place your bets
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Mexican Standoff ..bumping up against resistance
News background today ..more bad news
US Economy, Consumers Retreat, Signs of Recession
The US economy shrank during the summer, while consumer spending dropped by the largest amount in 28 years, the strongest signals yet that the widely predicted recession has already begun.
The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, a significant slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter.
DJIA 9031 +41.74 VIX 68.09 Gold 748.9 -5.10 Oil 65.22 -2.28
The market and most stocks are nearing the rally highs of Oct 20th and bumping against the 20 day average. Strong resistance a chance for those who thought they picked a bottom on that day to sell and get their money back. The traders see the 20 day average on the DJIA at 9266 and will sell there as the average is falling in a downtrend. They are holding it here to let both the shorts and longs place their bets. Bottom line for me is that we have seen the bottom for now.
The commodities market acted like the cut in rates was inflationary and we had a bounce in oil and Gold. At this stage of the game it is definitely not inflationary.
DZZ(Gold Short) turning back up at 38.63 +.73. Gold is a dead duck the question is when will it dive. CNBC touted Gold yesterday so it may be close.
Adding RGLD 27.51 to my short list should see 15 at least
Look at this:
Pickens: I'm On Sidelines ... $100 Oil in 2009
He's been knocked down before, he intends to recover again, but for now, Boone Pickens is out of the market.
The oil industry legend's BP Capital has been slammed by the credit crunch, shrinking by about 60 percent so far this year. That's a drop of some $2 billion since it peaked in late June.
"We're out of the market, and have been for several weeks," Pickens told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "I want to see a little more (from) the market before we move back in again; we're not going to be in any rush."
He said his fund will have been cut down to around $500 million by the end of the week, when the last redemptions have been made.
The fund was badly hurt by the precipitous drop in the price of oil. Pickens predicts that price will recover to about $100 per barrel during 2009.
"This is the worst credit crunch I've ever had," he said, adding, "We've been through them before; you just work your way through it."
He predicts consolidation as the oil industry struggles to cope with the price plunge.
"I guess I'm kind of anxious to see the first offer for a company," he said. "We may be a few months away from it."
They ran a special on T Boone on 60 minutes last week. He was the king of the oil gurus and was on the news many times. The system used him to promote their agenda as they did all of the financial gurus of the past 3 years. Now they are all the sidelines and those who followed them are too. This is the game, it always works the same. Anyone who is a guru on TV or in print when followed and believed by the masses is a Judas Goat either willingly or unwillingly. I think T Boone was speaking from his heart and I have to say that I hate to see this.
This is another example of a margin call and it has hit all of the bubble industries. The system will now gladly buy these assests at these cheap prices and start the game all over again.
11:33 DJIA 9167 +175 VIX 65.60 Gold 736 -15 Oil 65.34 -2.16
The news is not inviting the traders to buy plus remember we always sell off the last hour. That bad ol' last our boogy man is still out ther plus we may still retest. Oh my!
12:14 DJIA 9118 +129 VIX 64.75 Gold 740 -13.40 Oil 65.77 -1.73
Last hour selloff ... CNBC has been touting Gold all day. AEM CEO comming on to tout his company. With Gold 25% off highs and AEM 65% off highs the stock look cheap here. But I would expect Gold to be down 50 to 60% off its highs and not the other way around.
12:51 DJIA 9080 +89 VIX 66.30 Falling Gold 737.80 -16.80 Oil 65.26 -2.26
Nice close Gold falling maybe it goes here. Bottom line market keeps going up until this crisi is resolved. The beat goes on....Mikey
US Economy, Consumers Retreat, Signs of Recession
The US economy shrank during the summer, while consumer spending dropped by the largest amount in 28 years, the strongest signals yet that the widely predicted recession has already begun.
The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, a significant slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter.
DJIA 9031 +41.74 VIX 68.09 Gold 748.9 -5.10 Oil 65.22 -2.28
The market and most stocks are nearing the rally highs of Oct 20th and bumping against the 20 day average. Strong resistance a chance for those who thought they picked a bottom on that day to sell and get their money back. The traders see the 20 day average on the DJIA at 9266 and will sell there as the average is falling in a downtrend. They are holding it here to let both the shorts and longs place their bets. Bottom line for me is that we have seen the bottom for now.
The commodities market acted like the cut in rates was inflationary and we had a bounce in oil and Gold. At this stage of the game it is definitely not inflationary.
DZZ(Gold Short) turning back up at 38.63 +.73. Gold is a dead duck the question is when will it dive. CNBC touted Gold yesterday so it may be close.
Adding RGLD 27.51 to my short list should see 15 at least
Look at this:
Pickens: I'm On Sidelines ... $100 Oil in 2009
He's been knocked down before, he intends to recover again, but for now, Boone Pickens is out of the market.
The oil industry legend's BP Capital has been slammed by the credit crunch, shrinking by about 60 percent so far this year. That's a drop of some $2 billion since it peaked in late June.
"We're out of the market, and have been for several weeks," Pickens told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "I want to see a little more (from) the market before we move back in again; we're not going to be in any rush."
He said his fund will have been cut down to around $500 million by the end of the week, when the last redemptions have been made.
The fund was badly hurt by the precipitous drop in the price of oil. Pickens predicts that price will recover to about $100 per barrel during 2009.
"This is the worst credit crunch I've ever had," he said, adding, "We've been through them before; you just work your way through it."
He predicts consolidation as the oil industry struggles to cope with the price plunge.
"I guess I'm kind of anxious to see the first offer for a company," he said. "We may be a few months away from it."
They ran a special on T Boone on 60 minutes last week. He was the king of the oil gurus and was on the news many times. The system used him to promote their agenda as they did all of the financial gurus of the past 3 years. Now they are all the sidelines and those who followed them are too. This is the game, it always works the same. Anyone who is a guru on TV or in print when followed and believed by the masses is a Judas Goat either willingly or unwillingly. I think T Boone was speaking from his heart and I have to say that I hate to see this.
This is another example of a margin call and it has hit all of the bubble industries. The system will now gladly buy these assests at these cheap prices and start the game all over again.
11:33 DJIA 9167 +175 VIX 65.60 Gold 736 -15 Oil 65.34 -2.16
The news is not inviting the traders to buy plus remember we always sell off the last hour. That bad ol' last our boogy man is still out ther plus we may still retest. Oh my!
12:14 DJIA 9118 +129 VIX 64.75 Gold 740 -13.40 Oil 65.77 -1.73
Last hour selloff ... CNBC has been touting Gold all day. AEM CEO comming on to tout his company. With Gold 25% off highs and AEM 65% off highs the stock look cheap here. But I would expect Gold to be down 50 to 60% off its highs and not the other way around.
12:51 DJIA 9080 +89 VIX 66.30 Falling Gold 737.80 -16.80 Oil 65.26 -2.26
Nice close Gold falling maybe it goes here. Bottom line market keeps going up until this crisi is resolved. The beat goes on....Mikey
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Newspapers USA today and LA times say rally won't last
Get the LA Times and the USA today and read why this rally won't last.
I would expect that there will be some pullback after the FED anounces the rate cut.
That will get the shorts back in this thing. I am not very good at the short term market but I strongly believe that we have turned the corner on this selloff and are in a intermediate advance. These things usually last 12 to 16 weeks. The fact that all the newspapers and touts on TV are saying that it will not hold is typical at this stage of the advance. The news is still bad and the public will not buy it as long as the experts remain negative.
In the article about the rate cut this AM they said they expect a 1/2 point cut. If they cut 1/4 then I would assume some pullback in the short term to "reflect this dissapointment". The pullbacks are just buying opportunities if we get them. They are pitching Gold today and that still makes sense to the public. I am hoping Gold will rally enough for me to add on to my DZZ(short Gold) position.
The credit markets continue to improve but that story is still not a good one and what I am looking for to sell my longs is when that story is resolved favorably.
The touts are saying don't get excited about this rally and the shorts are just laughing at it. These are the best conditions I can imagine.
11:20 DJIA 9062 UNCH Fed cuts rates 1/2% to 1% and discount rates 1/2 ..selling off now as expected..remember it won't matter..right
I would expect that there will be some pullback after the FED anounces the rate cut.
That will get the shorts back in this thing. I am not very good at the short term market but I strongly believe that we have turned the corner on this selloff and are in a intermediate advance. These things usually last 12 to 16 weeks. The fact that all the newspapers and touts on TV are saying that it will not hold is typical at this stage of the advance. The news is still bad and the public will not buy it as long as the experts remain negative.
In the article about the rate cut this AM they said they expect a 1/2 point cut. If they cut 1/4 then I would assume some pullback in the short term to "reflect this dissapointment". The pullbacks are just buying opportunities if we get them. They are pitching Gold today and that still makes sense to the public. I am hoping Gold will rally enough for me to add on to my DZZ(short Gold) position.
The credit markets continue to improve but that story is still not a good one and what I am looking for to sell my longs is when that story is resolved favorably.
The touts are saying don't get excited about this rally and the shorts are just laughing at it. These are the best conditions I can imagine.
11:20 DJIA 9062 UNCH Fed cuts rates 1/2% to 1% and discount rates 1/2 ..selling off now as expected..remember it won't matter..right
Mikey Likes it..The missle has launched.
The good thing about this rally is that it does not make sense. Remember the rally after the bailout bill passed. It made sense and the traders expected the the market to rally. Then we had the rally after the announcement that the central banks were going to back everything. The traders thought we would rally on that one too. This rally is 1300 points off the low and came for no apparent reason. They said it was bargain hunting. Now that is a rally I can get behind. Now we keep going until the rally makes sense.
Look for the commodity stocks to rally sharply now. UYM 18.80 DIG 33 are the ETFS I own. Along with IP and ACI. I expect Gold to have a short bounce but at some point in this process the ALL CLEAR signal will be given for the market and at that point I think Gold does the el foldo and makes it move to 450.
8:52 DJIA 9070 VIX 69.01 Oil 67.06 +4.33 Gold 765.90 +25.40
Look at this:
Fed Rate Cut May Not Have A Major Impact on Stocks
Wall Street is waiting to collect on a rate-cut IOU today from the Fed, but the central bank's move is unlikely to cause a major shift in the markets.
Richard Drew / AP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The market is expecting a half-point cut in the Fed funds rate, and anything less will be seen as a big disappointment.
Why a Rate Cut DOES Matter
Former Fed Officials Weigh In
"From a sentiment standpoint it's anticipated, and if we don't get a rate cut I think we're going to have problems," says David Twibell, president of wealth management for Colorado Capital Bank in Denver. "It will give the impression that the Fed, despite all their actions, may not be willing to take the extra step most people expect them to take and want them to take."
As part of an aggressive strategy to push banks into more lending, the central bank has slashed its main lending rate to 1.5 percent, so it doesn't have much room left before it runs out of rate-cut ammunition.
I love this the market rallies 1000 points 1300 points off the lows and a rate cut do not matter. What are you smokin?
To put this into context it did matter when the Fed was cutting the rates when the market was selling off from its highs. Now it doesn't matter. I get it it doesn't matter when we are bottoming and is does matter when we are topping.
CNBC just ran a segment on Gold entitled "Solid Demand"
It was a tout for gold. This Gold firm says Gold demand is going through the roof because investors want to own gold because of turmoil in the markets. ... You know the old flight to safety. They said they are hiring Real estae brokers. My God haven't these poor SOB's been killed in real estate already now they are going to kill their clients in Gold. I LOVE THE DZZ looking to add on if it gets to 33.50
When the all clear signal is given on the financial system...and it most certainly will..then Gold will drop like the stock market and real estate did. The public has gotten wacked in Real Estate and in the Stock market, and the commodities markets and now they wil be killed in Gold. The beat goes on...
9:16 CNBC Fed Funds rate does not matter discussion. ...Perfect. Just before the rate cut it doesn't matter what the Fed does. Oh sure it doesn't.
The plays in the DIG and the UYM are just short term trades. Long term I like the XLF and UYG and DZZ
10:15 DJIA 9118 +54.40 VIX 68.20 Gold 758.70 +17.20 Oil 68.23 + 5.50
Gasparion on CNBC says there is a plan being proposed for the Government to fully back MBIA (MBI) 8.47 and AMBAC (ABK) 2.87 if that is ture these are cheap already own 1 position on each.
10:45
Look for the commodity stocks to rally sharply now. UYM 18.80 DIG 33 are the ETFS I own. Along with IP and ACI. I expect Gold to have a short bounce but at some point in this process the ALL CLEAR signal will be given for the market and at that point I think Gold does the el foldo and makes it move to 450.
8:52 DJIA 9070 VIX 69.01 Oil 67.06 +4.33 Gold 765.90 +25.40
Look at this:
Fed Rate Cut May Not Have A Major Impact on Stocks
Wall Street is waiting to collect on a rate-cut IOU today from the Fed, but the central bank's move is unlikely to cause a major shift in the markets.
Richard Drew / AP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The market is expecting a half-point cut in the Fed funds rate, and anything less will be seen as a big disappointment.
Why a Rate Cut DOES Matter
Former Fed Officials Weigh In
"From a sentiment standpoint it's anticipated, and if we don't get a rate cut I think we're going to have problems," says David Twibell, president of wealth management for Colorado Capital Bank in Denver. "It will give the impression that the Fed, despite all their actions, may not be willing to take the extra step most people expect them to take and want them to take."
As part of an aggressive strategy to push banks into more lending, the central bank has slashed its main lending rate to 1.5 percent, so it doesn't have much room left before it runs out of rate-cut ammunition.
I love this the market rallies 1000 points 1300 points off the lows and a rate cut do not matter. What are you smokin?
To put this into context it did matter when the Fed was cutting the rates when the market was selling off from its highs. Now it doesn't matter. I get it it doesn't matter when we are bottoming and is does matter when we are topping.
CNBC just ran a segment on Gold entitled "Solid Demand"
It was a tout for gold. This Gold firm says Gold demand is going through the roof because investors want to own gold because of turmoil in the markets. ... You know the old flight to safety. They said they are hiring Real estae brokers. My God haven't these poor SOB's been killed in real estate already now they are going to kill their clients in Gold. I LOVE THE DZZ looking to add on if it gets to 33.50
When the all clear signal is given on the financial system...and it most certainly will..then Gold will drop like the stock market and real estate did. The public has gotten wacked in Real Estate and in the Stock market, and the commodities markets and now they wil be killed in Gold. The beat goes on...
9:16 CNBC Fed Funds rate does not matter discussion. ...Perfect. Just before the rate cut it doesn't matter what the Fed does. Oh sure it doesn't.
The plays in the DIG and the UYM are just short term trades. Long term I like the XLF and UYG and DZZ
10:15 DJIA 9118 +54.40 VIX 68.20 Gold 758.70 +17.20 Oil 68.23 + 5.50
Gasparion on CNBC says there is a plan being proposed for the Government to fully back MBIA (MBI) 8.47 and AMBAC (ABK) 2.87 if that is ture these are cheap already own 1 position on each.
10:45
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Trial Balloons
6:52 DJIA 8461 +285
The insiders have the stock now but they need to get prices higher and have the traders sell to them. That is why all the rallies have failed so far. This AM we have another rally and I think it is getting to the point where this is going to happen. Remember, they are still looking for a blow out of the lows on big volume. That has not happened and a rally now would catch them flatfooted. It may not be this rally but one of them is going to go.
The bottom is a process. That process includes many failed rallies follow by reasons why something that is suppose to help will not. In the beginning the traders have the hope that those things that are being done to help the situation will work and they chase the early rallies. Because each rally fails and then reasons are given why the situation is hopeless. the traders eventually sell the rallies and the market makers can move prices higher and have stock sold to them as the prices go up.
How long does this take well it varies. It boils down to your will against theirs. If you know something is going to work then go for it and wait for it to happen. The more importance you place on time the poorer your results will be.
In this situation that we are in now, all I can say is that within 1 year things will look a whole lot better and these prices will be much higher. My ability to call the day to day and short term is not good. If you can trade the short term email me please.
One thing that can help on the short term is an understanding of the options cycle. The next cycle ends on Novemeber 21. There have been a ton of puts bought in this cycle and probably in the December and January cycles. Expect that the market will tend to rally into the third friday of each of these months. Why? Well if it doesn't then the put buyers would make money and we would not want that would we?
7:25 DJIA 8384 +207 Here comes the bad news...
US Consumer Confidence Plunges to a Record Low
US consumer confidence plunged to a record low in October as a worsening financial crisis left Americans anxious about their jobs and pessimistic about future prospects, a report said Tuesday.
The Conference Board said its index measuring consumer sentiment tumbled to 38.0 in October from an upwardly revised 61.4 in September. That was the lowest reading since the index began in 1967. The previous low was 43.2 in December 1974.
The result was well below economists' expectations for a reading of 52.0 and comes after a modest improvement in consumers' mood the prior month. Even the most pessimistic forecast of the 74 economists surveyed by Reuters was 45.0
Notice how it was below expectations. That is laughable..who writes this stuff.
There is no way we can rally now right?...well maybe stay tuned its getting deep but don't worry I have my wadeing boots on.
12:03 DJIA 8461 +446 They are still worried about last hour selloff. They say a FED cut to 1% would not help. What I would like to see is a for the market to stay up into the close open strong tomarrow run up into the Fed meeting and then selloff after the rate cut is announced.
I think the shorts feel no reason to cover and I believe we are running out of sellers. If the shorts want to cover(buy) and there are no sellers then we have a meltup. That is possible.
12:53 DJIA 8895 + 715 That's more like it ...The beat goes on..Mikey
The insiders have the stock now but they need to get prices higher and have the traders sell to them. That is why all the rallies have failed so far. This AM we have another rally and I think it is getting to the point where this is going to happen. Remember, they are still looking for a blow out of the lows on big volume. That has not happened and a rally now would catch them flatfooted. It may not be this rally but one of them is going to go.
The bottom is a process. That process includes many failed rallies follow by reasons why something that is suppose to help will not. In the beginning the traders have the hope that those things that are being done to help the situation will work and they chase the early rallies. Because each rally fails and then reasons are given why the situation is hopeless. the traders eventually sell the rallies and the market makers can move prices higher and have stock sold to them as the prices go up.
How long does this take well it varies. It boils down to your will against theirs. If you know something is going to work then go for it and wait for it to happen. The more importance you place on time the poorer your results will be.
In this situation that we are in now, all I can say is that within 1 year things will look a whole lot better and these prices will be much higher. My ability to call the day to day and short term is not good. If you can trade the short term email me please.
One thing that can help on the short term is an understanding of the options cycle. The next cycle ends on Novemeber 21. There have been a ton of puts bought in this cycle and probably in the December and January cycles. Expect that the market will tend to rally into the third friday of each of these months. Why? Well if it doesn't then the put buyers would make money and we would not want that would we?
7:25 DJIA 8384 +207 Here comes the bad news...
US Consumer Confidence Plunges to a Record Low
US consumer confidence plunged to a record low in October as a worsening financial crisis left Americans anxious about their jobs and pessimistic about future prospects, a report said Tuesday.
The Conference Board said its index measuring consumer sentiment tumbled to 38.0 in October from an upwardly revised 61.4 in September. That was the lowest reading since the index began in 1967. The previous low was 43.2 in December 1974.
The result was well below economists' expectations for a reading of 52.0 and comes after a modest improvement in consumers' mood the prior month. Even the most pessimistic forecast of the 74 economists surveyed by Reuters was 45.0
Notice how it was below expectations. That is laughable..who writes this stuff.
There is no way we can rally now right?...well maybe stay tuned its getting deep but don't worry I have my wadeing boots on.
12:03 DJIA 8461 +446 They are still worried about last hour selloff. They say a FED cut to 1% would not help. What I would like to see is a for the market to stay up into the close open strong tomarrow run up into the Fed meeting and then selloff after the rate cut is announced.
I think the shorts feel no reason to cover and I believe we are running out of sellers. If the shorts want to cover(buy) and there are no sellers then we have a meltup. That is possible.
12:53 DJIA 8895 + 715 That's more like it ...The beat goes on..Mikey
The Rocket is being fueled..they say it won't fly
The market is like a rocket that is on the launching pad that is being loaded with high powered rocket fuel. The fuel is lower interest rates, lower commoditiy prices, and massive injections of capitial by the central banks. Look at this:
Fifteen U.S. banks have signed up for the government's offer of a cash injection, in addition to the nine that joined the program initially. The injections are a bid to revive the sector, which has suffered since lending has dried up and many loans have gone bad.
The Treasury Department plans to provide funds for 20 to 22 lenders in the current round of a $250 billion bank recapitalization program.
Nine of the largest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase [JPM 34.00 --- UNCH (0) ] and Citigroup [C 11.73 --- UNCH (0) ], received the first $125 billion of capital infusions two weeks ago.
A list of the additional 15 banks that have announced they will use the government funds follows:
PNC Financial Services [PNC 58.63 --- UNCH (0) ] $7.7 billion
Capital One Financial [COF 34.40 --- UNCH (0) ] $3.55 billion
Regions Financial [RF 9.95 --- UNCH (0) ] $3.5 billion
SunTrust Banks [STI 35.34 --- UNCH (0) ] $3.5 billion
KeyCorp [KEY 9.92 --- UNCH (0) ] $2.5 billion
Comerica [CMA 25.80 --- UNCH (0) ]$2.25 billion
State Street [STT 35.69 --- UNCH (0) ] $2.0 billion
Northern Trust [NTRS 49.68 --- UNCH (0) ] $1.5 billion
Huntington Bancshares [HBAN 9.17 --- UNCH (0) ] $1.4 billion
First Horizon National [FHN 9.58 --- UNCH (0) ] $866 million
City National [CYN 46.88 --- UNCH (0) ] $395 million
Valley National Bancorp [VLY 15.44 --- UNCH (0) ] $330 million
UCBH [UCBH 4.59 --- UNCH (0) ] $298 million
Washington Federal [WFSL 15.34 --- UNCH (0) ] $200 million
First Niagara Financial [FNFG 13.87 --- UNCH (0) ] $186 million
But look what the experts say..you know the guys on TV ...
Most banks that signed on to the government's recapitalization program surged on Monday, but market pros are still advising caution when it comes to putting the stocks in your portfolio.
Having more cash on hand makes the banks more solvent, but underlying problems in the industry are still raising hackles in the investment world.
What they are saying is that is is not going to work. Well those are the same guys that for the last 2 years said that higher interest rates would not slow the US consumer and slow the raging World economy. Guess what they are wrong again!
Fifteen U.S. banks have signed up for the government's offer of a cash injection, in addition to the nine that joined the program initially. The injections are a bid to revive the sector, which has suffered since lending has dried up and many loans have gone bad.
The Treasury Department plans to provide funds for 20 to 22 lenders in the current round of a $250 billion bank recapitalization program.
Nine of the largest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase [JPM 34.00 --- UNCH (0) ] and Citigroup [C 11.73 --- UNCH (0) ], received the first $125 billion of capital infusions two weeks ago.
A list of the additional 15 banks that have announced they will use the government funds follows:
PNC Financial Services [PNC 58.63 --- UNCH (0) ] $7.7 billion
Capital One Financial [COF 34.40 --- UNCH (0) ] $3.55 billion
Regions Financial [RF 9.95 --- UNCH (0) ] $3.5 billion
SunTrust Banks [STI 35.34 --- UNCH (0) ] $3.5 billion
KeyCorp [KEY 9.92 --- UNCH (0) ] $2.5 billion
Comerica [CMA 25.80 --- UNCH (0) ]$2.25 billion
State Street [STT 35.69 --- UNCH (0) ] $2.0 billion
Northern Trust [NTRS 49.68 --- UNCH (0) ] $1.5 billion
Huntington Bancshares [HBAN 9.17 --- UNCH (0) ] $1.4 billion
First Horizon National [FHN 9.58 --- UNCH (0) ] $866 million
City National [CYN 46.88 --- UNCH (0) ] $395 million
Valley National Bancorp [VLY 15.44 --- UNCH (0) ] $330 million
UCBH [UCBH 4.59 --- UNCH (0) ] $298 million
Washington Federal [WFSL 15.34 --- UNCH (0) ] $200 million
First Niagara Financial [FNFG 13.87 --- UNCH (0) ] $186 million
But look what the experts say..you know the guys on TV ...
Most banks that signed on to the government's recapitalization program surged on Monday, but market pros are still advising caution when it comes to putting the stocks in your portfolio.
Having more cash on hand makes the banks more solvent, but underlying problems in the industry are still raising hackles in the investment world.
What they are saying is that is is not going to work. Well those are the same guys that for the last 2 years said that higher interest rates would not slow the US consumer and slow the raging World economy. Guess what they are wrong again!
Monday, October 27, 2008
Stocks I don't like
These stocks are priced with the global economic growth story and their prices have not reflected the deflationary bubble that has popped.
NSC 54.20 Coal and commodities hauler
UNP 57.65 Coal and commodities hauler
CSX 41.96 Coal and commodities hauler
Nke 47.93 Who wants to buy high priced sneakers now?
MCD 53.27 Micky D's a global growth story..Hello?
I am short NSC NKE and MCD expect them to retest 2003 prices like everyone else.
NSC 54.20 Coal and commodities hauler
UNP 57.65 Coal and commodities hauler
CSX 41.96 Coal and commodities hauler
Nke 47.93 Who wants to buy high priced sneakers now?
MCD 53.27 Micky D's a global growth story..Hello?
I am short NSC NKE and MCD expect them to retest 2003 prices like everyone else.
Wallowing around in the sea of unknown..Yada Yada Yada
The news background this AM:
DJIA 8299 -79
Markets Fear Central Banks Won't Prevent Recession
Markets around the world remained volatile as investors worried that a flurry of central bank moves this week would not be enough to stave off a global recession.
US stocks bounced back and forth between positive and negative territory as Japanese stocks tumbled to 26-year lows and European markets fell heavily in chaotic trade.
Little that officials said could convince panicky investors that governments can stem the fast-spreading crisis that is menacing financial markets, economic growth and company earnings
We are wallowing around in the sea of unknown. Until the capital market situation is eased and the money comes out of governments into the banking system we are not going to see anything different. Recession remains on everyone's lips and is the top concern," said Howard Wheeldon, strategist at BGC.
Who in their right mind would buy this market under these circumstances. I mean it is sooooo uncertain and scary right? Just in time for Halloween.
Well at 14000 last year these same scary guys were telling us that the Global economy was the new paradime and oil was going to $200.
Look at this...
Beutel: Crude Could Hit $20 A Barrel
A fast and furious as the crude oil market selloff has been, it's far from over, says one expert.
"The pendulum does swing much faster than we give it credit for," says Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover.
Beutel says $37 a barrel is likely, even $20 a barrel isn't out of the question.
"If we look at every bear market over last 30, we always cut the high by four," says beutel, which is how he gets the $37 number.
Well I agree with him but that is for later not now. Why are we seeing this guy now after oil has dropped from 150 to 62. Dude why tell us that now?
Oil stocks are poised for a nice trading rally in here.
DIG ...double long Oil stock ETF 26.48
XLE... SPDR Oil index 43.15
Have at least a 30% pop in the from here.
What do we know for sure this week:
1)We are in a recession
2)Oil prices are going to fall at least another 20 bucks.
If you make your investment decisions based on these two certainties over the next 3 months you will lose money. What will make these tow ideas wrong...The Law of Uncertainty.
Put Options expire on November 21 let's see where these two are trading then. On November 21 I will take you back to this day
I remain commited to my long side trades
DJIA 8299 -79
Markets Fear Central Banks Won't Prevent Recession
Markets around the world remained volatile as investors worried that a flurry of central bank moves this week would not be enough to stave off a global recession.
US stocks bounced back and forth between positive and negative territory as Japanese stocks tumbled to 26-year lows and European markets fell heavily in chaotic trade.
Little that officials said could convince panicky investors that governments can stem the fast-spreading crisis that is menacing financial markets, economic growth and company earnings
We are wallowing around in the sea of unknown. Until the capital market situation is eased and the money comes out of governments into the banking system we are not going to see anything different. Recession remains on everyone's lips and is the top concern," said Howard Wheeldon, strategist at BGC.
Who in their right mind would buy this market under these circumstances. I mean it is sooooo uncertain and scary right? Just in time for Halloween.
Well at 14000 last year these same scary guys were telling us that the Global economy was the new paradime and oil was going to $200.
Look at this...
Beutel: Crude Could Hit $20 A Barrel
A fast and furious as the crude oil market selloff has been, it's far from over, says one expert.
"The pendulum does swing much faster than we give it credit for," says Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover.
Beutel says $37 a barrel is likely, even $20 a barrel isn't out of the question.
"If we look at every bear market over last 30, we always cut the high by four," says beutel, which is how he gets the $37 number.
Well I agree with him but that is for later not now. Why are we seeing this guy now after oil has dropped from 150 to 62. Dude why tell us that now?
Oil stocks are poised for a nice trading rally in here.
DIG ...double long Oil stock ETF 26.48
XLE... SPDR Oil index 43.15
Have at least a 30% pop in the from here.
What do we know for sure this week:
1)We are in a recession
2)Oil prices are going to fall at least another 20 bucks.
If you make your investment decisions based on these two certainties over the next 3 months you will lose money. What will make these tow ideas wrong...The Law of Uncertainty.
Put Options expire on November 21 let's see where these two are trading then. On November 21 I will take you back to this day
I remain commited to my long side trades
Friday, October 24, 2008
Bad Open Good buying opportunity
Will add on to SSO UYG positions in first hour
Bought SSO 25.04 UYG 7.20
Open
After being in panic mode the past few weeks, investors are now wallowing in despair. Stock markets were in freefall around the world Friday as investors moved to liquidate risky positions. Mounting evidence of a downturn, born of the worst financial crisis in 80 years, also prompted extreme currency volatility.
What's behind the selloff? Investors around the world are ignoring the good news and focusing on the bad. And there's plenty of that to go around. Amid all the gloomy economic data and disappointing earnings, economists and market pros are increasingly convinced that the US and the rest of the world are headed for a painful recession.
Another reason stocks can't hold rallies is that there is substantial selling pressure from hedge funds facing redemptions.
Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of the investment pools are expected to drown this year as they face intense pressure to unwind before the end of their fiscal year on Oct. 31.
OPEC cuts production but oil keeps on selling off...forced liqidation
Oil slid more than 5 percent a barrel on Friday as gloom about a global economic downturn that is sapping fuel demand took the steam out of an OPEC agreement to cut output.
Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at an emergency meeting in Vienna to take 1.5 million barrels a day of crude, about 5 percent of its supply, off the world market.
U.S. light, sweet crude [US@CL.1 64.11 -3.73 (-5.5%)] for December delivery traded down .
Earlier it touched $62.65, its lowest since May 2007. It has fallen more than $40 a barrel in a month.
Saudia Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the group had agreed the output reduction with effect from Nov.1.
That's the background for the open today. More forced liquidation. Its a process but like I said yesterday I think we are getting close.
7:38 DJIA 8295 -397 VIX 79.04 Gold 707.30 -7.10 Oil 64.96 -2.88
After lower open and bounce now trying sell off. Still holding above yesterdays low.
8:02 DJIA 8394 -299 back to the highs for the day
8:21 DJIA 8454 -229 New high for the day
8:38 DJIA 8502 -188 New High
9:39 DJIA 8355 -338 VIX 77.25 Gold 7.23 +9.20 Oil 64.89 -2.45
GM news and news about autos is morose will try to buy GM at 5 now 5.21
12:01 DJIA 8584 -106 VIX 78.63 Gold 731.90 +17.20 Oil 64.33 -3.51
I think oil is about finished on the downside now every one is looking down
Making a new high on Market now at noon I have no clue which way they take it into the close.
12:52 DJIA 8550 -140 VIX 76.77 Gold 728.50 +13.80 Oil 64.73 -3.11
Well trying to go up into close all in all a good day Looks like the selling is drying up.
I made it through this week I'll see what thye have for me next week. The beat goes on ..,.Mikey
Bought SSO 25.04 UYG 7.20
Open
After being in panic mode the past few weeks, investors are now wallowing in despair. Stock markets were in freefall around the world Friday as investors moved to liquidate risky positions. Mounting evidence of a downturn, born of the worst financial crisis in 80 years, also prompted extreme currency volatility.
What's behind the selloff? Investors around the world are ignoring the good news and focusing on the bad. And there's plenty of that to go around. Amid all the gloomy economic data and disappointing earnings, economists and market pros are increasingly convinced that the US and the rest of the world are headed for a painful recession.
Another reason stocks can't hold rallies is that there is substantial selling pressure from hedge funds facing redemptions.
Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of the investment pools are expected to drown this year as they face intense pressure to unwind before the end of their fiscal year on Oct. 31.
OPEC cuts production but oil keeps on selling off...forced liqidation
Oil slid more than 5 percent a barrel on Friday as gloom about a global economic downturn that is sapping fuel demand took the steam out of an OPEC agreement to cut output.
Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at an emergency meeting in Vienna to take 1.5 million barrels a day of crude, about 5 percent of its supply, off the world market.
U.S. light, sweet crude [US@CL.1 64.11 -3.73 (-5.5%)] for December delivery traded down .
Earlier it touched $62.65, its lowest since May 2007. It has fallen more than $40 a barrel in a month.
Saudia Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the group had agreed the output reduction with effect from Nov.1.
That's the background for the open today. More forced liquidation. Its a process but like I said yesterday I think we are getting close.
7:38 DJIA 8295 -397 VIX 79.04 Gold 707.30 -7.10 Oil 64.96 -2.88
After lower open and bounce now trying sell off. Still holding above yesterdays low.
8:02 DJIA 8394 -299 back to the highs for the day
8:21 DJIA 8454 -229 New high for the day
8:38 DJIA 8502 -188 New High
9:39 DJIA 8355 -338 VIX 77.25 Gold 7.23 +9.20 Oil 64.89 -2.45
GM news and news about autos is morose will try to buy GM at 5 now 5.21
12:01 DJIA 8584 -106 VIX 78.63 Gold 731.90 +17.20 Oil 64.33 -3.51
I think oil is about finished on the downside now every one is looking down
Making a new high on Market now at noon I have no clue which way they take it into the close.
12:52 DJIA 8550 -140 VIX 76.77 Gold 728.50 +13.80 Oil 64.73 -3.11
Well trying to go up into close all in all a good day Looks like the selling is drying up.
I made it through this week I'll see what thye have for me next week. The beat goes on ..,.Mikey
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Tug of War
7:15 DJIA 8582 +63.72 VIX 70.07 Gold 711 -24.20 Oil 67.76 +1.01
The Bad News
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by a larger than expected 15,000 last week, government data on Thursday showed, reinforcing evidence about the weak state of the labor market. You are going to hear alot about this for months. The story will be the economy can't grow with a weak job market.
If you think the economy looks bad now, imagine this:
An unemployment rate above 10 percent for almost a year.
A 82-percent increase in the number of unemployed in a three-year period.
A 7.8 percent contraction in the gross domestic product in one quarter alone.
An economy that doesn’t grow for two consecutive years.
Those are some of the things that happened in the long and nasty recessions of 1973-1975 and 1980-1982—and could happen this time. Though few are predicting it'll get that bad, most economists say the current downturn will be far harsher than the blip of the 1990-1991 or even 2000-2001 recessions.
The Good News
Interest rates are falling
Oil and commodity prices are falling
The credit Freeze is thawing
Trillions of dollars are being mainlined into the banks.
Hedge funds are delveraging
The system needs instant relief. The emergence of Hedge funds with their leverage has magnified the price swings in stocks and commodities to the extent that prices are not real. If you are looking at a price for any stock now it is not a true reflection of anything other than it is the result of foced liquidation by the leveraged hedge funds being forced out. What used to take 2 years is now condensed into 3 months. This is creating a below market valuation on stocks.
Investment demand or selling exaggerates price moves in both directions. Prices in the markets today is the result of alot of money chasing or leaving on that day.
The past 3 weeks we have seen wave after waves selling hit the market. These selling waves are about forced liquidations. The other side of these waves is the FED pumping liquidity into the system. They are creating the liquidity necessary to reflate the economy.
When the forced liquidations end all that is left is the liquidity and no sellers.
That is where we are going to be in a relatively short time. One day you will wake up and prices will be up 50% and prices will be back to fair market value.
In my opinion I see these waves slowing down now. I think we are getting late in the lquidation game.
The tug of war is the forced selling accompanied by the bad news. This is the obvious. The good news is that the unseen hand of buying. The obvious is that things are bad and are getting worse. The good news is that something is being done about that and the prices are discounting something far worse than I can imagine given the amount of liquidity I see (unseen hand) coming at this thing now.
The Bad News
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by a larger than expected 15,000 last week, government data on Thursday showed, reinforcing evidence about the weak state of the labor market. You are going to hear alot about this for months. The story will be the economy can't grow with a weak job market.
If you think the economy looks bad now, imagine this:
An unemployment rate above 10 percent for almost a year.
A 82-percent increase in the number of unemployed in a three-year period.
A 7.8 percent contraction in the gross domestic product in one quarter alone.
An economy that doesn’t grow for two consecutive years.
Those are some of the things that happened in the long and nasty recessions of 1973-1975 and 1980-1982—and could happen this time. Though few are predicting it'll get that bad, most economists say the current downturn will be far harsher than the blip of the 1990-1991 or even 2000-2001 recessions.
The Good News
Interest rates are falling
Oil and commodity prices are falling
The credit Freeze is thawing
Trillions of dollars are being mainlined into the banks.
Hedge funds are delveraging
The system needs instant relief. The emergence of Hedge funds with their leverage has magnified the price swings in stocks and commodities to the extent that prices are not real. If you are looking at a price for any stock now it is not a true reflection of anything other than it is the result of foced liquidation by the leveraged hedge funds being forced out. What used to take 2 years is now condensed into 3 months. This is creating a below market valuation on stocks.
Investment demand or selling exaggerates price moves in both directions. Prices in the markets today is the result of alot of money chasing or leaving on that day.
The past 3 weeks we have seen wave after waves selling hit the market. These selling waves are about forced liquidations. The other side of these waves is the FED pumping liquidity into the system. They are creating the liquidity necessary to reflate the economy.
When the forced liquidations end all that is left is the liquidity and no sellers.
That is where we are going to be in a relatively short time. One day you will wake up and prices will be up 50% and prices will be back to fair market value.
In my opinion I see these waves slowing down now. I think we are getting late in the lquidation game.
The tug of war is the forced selling accompanied by the bad news. This is the obvious. The good news is that the unseen hand of buying. The obvious is that things are bad and are getting worse. The good news is that something is being done about that and the prices are discounting something far worse than I can imagine given the amount of liquidity I see (unseen hand) coming at this thing now.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Real Estate is a buy now!!!!
The amount of money that is comming at this is enormous. Combine this with as yet named tax breaks and the workouts that the banks will offer makes Real Estate a flaming buy now. The afforability index is flashing a buy. When the 30 year mortgage hits 4.5% the market will open up. You will hear that the price bounce is only temporary. To confirm this keep an eye on the XHB the homebuilder ETF. When this index resumes its uptrend that is your key the the RE market has turned the corner.
This ETF will also tell you that the economy is turning around.
This ETF will also tell you that the economy is turning around.
Five reasons I like Citibank (C) 13.50
1) Goldman Sacs downgraded them today...these guys are never right
2) The treasury put 25 billion in their vault this week
3) Mortgage rates are going to drop to 4 to 4.5% for the 30 year.
4) Banks only need to reserve $1 for every $10 on deposit Multiple 25 billion times 10. That is what they will loan out in new loans earning interest on all of them.
5) The US government is a part owner... they will win on this one.
I like all the banks (XLF) the same applies to Goldman and Morgan Stanley. see my Blog..The World is saved of Oct 14th from last week about the bailout money being deposited 6 banks.
2) The treasury put 25 billion in their vault this week
3) Mortgage rates are going to drop to 4 to 4.5% for the 30 year.
4) Banks only need to reserve $1 for every $10 on deposit Multiple 25 billion times 10. That is what they will loan out in new loans earning interest on all of them.
5) The US government is a part owner... they will win on this one.
I like all the banks (XLF) the same applies to Goldman and Morgan Stanley. see my Blog..The World is saved of Oct 14th from last week about the bailout money being deposited 6 banks.
What the system is saying to the public...Putting the long term in perspective
During all of 2007 and into July of 2008 the public was told to do what? They were told to be long term investors and to trust the system. The long term always worked and to ignore the selloffs because you cannot time the market. How did that work? Well you know how it worked the public got killed.
What is the public hearing now? It is being told to be safe with their money don't take any risks buy CD's buy government bonds, put a portion of your money in gold. The message is don't trust the system it is broken.
I saw a divorce attorney on CNBC yesterday who says he filing suit against a broker because he gave them money and told them to be safe. He says he lost 200K and now has his money in bonds because he wants to be safe. He has lost confidence in the system.
My response is that your money is not safe in bonds if the system fails. The message is be safe and those who were long term investors are now out. I think that they will regret the decision to get out now as much as they do the decision to be a long term investor last year.
Warren Buffett is investing in the financials because he knows that the system is going to save this area first. It has to or we are dead. The thing I have learned in all my years is invest in areas of the economy that are essential to the system when they are in trouble and then trust the system to figure it out.
That is why I have complete confidence in investing in the XLF(15.32) at this level. I trust the system to figure it out and it will. Those who invest FOR THE LONG TERM at these prices will be rewarded in time. That's how you invest.
If you sell here you are a victim of the system if you buy you are using the system to your advantage. Its your choice!
What is the public hearing now? It is being told to be safe with their money don't take any risks buy CD's buy government bonds, put a portion of your money in gold. The message is don't trust the system it is broken.
I saw a divorce attorney on CNBC yesterday who says he filing suit against a broker because he gave them money and told them to be safe. He says he lost 200K and now has his money in bonds because he wants to be safe. He has lost confidence in the system.
My response is that your money is not safe in bonds if the system fails. The message is be safe and those who were long term investors are now out. I think that they will regret the decision to get out now as much as they do the decision to be a long term investor last year.
Warren Buffett is investing in the financials because he knows that the system is going to save this area first. It has to or we are dead. The thing I have learned in all my years is invest in areas of the economy that are essential to the system when they are in trouble and then trust the system to figure it out.
That is why I have complete confidence in investing in the XLF(15.32) at this level. I trust the system to figure it out and it will. Those who invest FOR THE LONG TERM at these prices will be rewarded in time. That's how you invest.
If you sell here you are a victim of the system if you buy you are using the system to your advantage. Its your choice!
Gloomy Earnings reported...What a surprise
Futures Fall Amid Gloomy Earnings Start
from a bevy of big-name companies Wednesday moved stock futures toward a lower open.
Futures, which already were well below fair market value, slipped further as earnings reports continued to come out and indicated a drop of more than 1 percent at the market open, though they were well off their lows.
Recent lows could be tested on the major indexes, Ben Lichtenstein, president from tradersaudio.com, told CNBC. The sheer amount of government intervention is leading some investors to fret about the bleakness of the economic picture, he said
This comes after an article yesterday that gives us 4 reasons why that was not a bottom. Only 4 I could come up with about 24.
6:34 DJIA 8819 -203 VIX 53 Gold 757 -11 69.04 -3.14
Looking to buy this pullback ..adding to DIG 30.50 UYG 9.78
DAL resistance at 11.50 Gold falling on its butt DZZ new high 38.28
10:14 DJIA 8704 -329 VIX 60.63 Gold 744 -23.90 Oil 67.78 -4.40
Experts saying don't invest now wait for 3 to 4 months because it will take time for this to work. Today it looks like the thing to say. But 3 to 4 months from now I think prices are alot higher. How is this going to happen..I don't have a clue no that's uncertainty.
Like FRE .85 Freddie Mac will start here at this price add if it sells off. Would not be surprised to see .30
10:55 8678 -356 VIX 60.63 Gold 722 -46 YEP 722 Oil 66.70-5.41
What I have been hearning for the past 2 weeks is that this is going to take a long time. THIS ECONOMY IS GOING TO V OUT OF HERE THAT'S RIGHT THE SLOW DOWN WILL BE OVER IN A BLINK!!!!! More on that in future blogs
Like the XLK in this area 15.75 Buying here
Todays selloff is masking the thaw in the credit markets. Libor is now 3.5 comming down in a hurry. Things are getting better and liquidity is increasing. The selling is hedge fund meeting margin calls. When that ends we will have EXCESS LIQUIDITY AND NO SELLERS.
DJIA 8465 -568 VIX 60.63 Gold 725.70 -72.70 Oil 66.75 -5.43
Selling waves to meet margin calls. The FED is on the buy side. Enough sail will elaborate tomarroe Peace out. The beat goes on Mikey
from a bevy of big-name companies Wednesday moved stock futures toward a lower open.
Futures, which already were well below fair market value, slipped further as earnings reports continued to come out and indicated a drop of more than 1 percent at the market open, though they were well off their lows.
Recent lows could be tested on the major indexes, Ben Lichtenstein, president from tradersaudio.com, told CNBC. The sheer amount of government intervention is leading some investors to fret about the bleakness of the economic picture, he said
This comes after an article yesterday that gives us 4 reasons why that was not a bottom. Only 4 I could come up with about 24.
6:34 DJIA 8819 -203 VIX 53 Gold 757 -11 69.04 -3.14
Looking to buy this pullback ..adding to DIG 30.50 UYG 9.78
DAL resistance at 11.50 Gold falling on its butt DZZ new high 38.28
10:14 DJIA 8704 -329 VIX 60.63 Gold 744 -23.90 Oil 67.78 -4.40
Experts saying don't invest now wait for 3 to 4 months because it will take time for this to work. Today it looks like the thing to say. But 3 to 4 months from now I think prices are alot higher. How is this going to happen..I don't have a clue no that's uncertainty.
Like FRE .85 Freddie Mac will start here at this price add if it sells off. Would not be surprised to see .30
10:55 8678 -356 VIX 60.63 Gold 722 -46 YEP 722 Oil 66.70-5.41
What I have been hearning for the past 2 weeks is that this is going to take a long time. THIS ECONOMY IS GOING TO V OUT OF HERE THAT'S RIGHT THE SLOW DOWN WILL BE OVER IN A BLINK!!!!! More on that in future blogs
Like the XLK in this area 15.75 Buying here
Todays selloff is masking the thaw in the credit markets. Libor is now 3.5 comming down in a hurry. Things are getting better and liquidity is increasing. The selling is hedge fund meeting margin calls. When that ends we will have EXCESS LIQUIDITY AND NO SELLERS.
DJIA 8465 -568 VIX 60.63 Gold 725.70 -72.70 Oil 66.75 -5.43
Selling waves to meet margin calls. The FED is on the buy side. Enough sail will elaborate tomarroe Peace out. The beat goes on Mikey
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Today is story 2 day..the bad economy
From CNBC.com
6:24 Stock indexes indicated a lower opening as tepid earnings outlooks and worries over bank lending spread worry on Wall Street.
But worries over the health of the economy seemed to offset enthusiasm after news of a possible second stimulus package, and futures were still pointing lower.
6:42 DJIA 9169 -96 VIX 55.08 Gold 772.30 - 17.40 Oil 72.07 -2.18 Gold
Interbank Borrowing Costs Ease Broadly
The interbank cost of borrowing dollars, euros and sterling fell across all maturities on Tuesday, the British Bankers' Association's daily fixing showed.
This is telling us that the credit freeze is thawing.
The story is ping ponging back and forth between the thaw and the bad economy.
He's down he's up he's down no he's up. High drama ...a standard ploy...VIX still high we will go higher.
7:08 Like the techs here buying QLD 35.62 double QQQQ
Keep in mind the message to the public is be safe with your money. I am hearingthis market is too crazy to be in. These all fearful things and guess what the market is moving higher.
7:54 DJIA 9199 -70 VIX 53.66 Gold 777.20 -12.80 Oil 75.63 -1.76
Citibank (C)14.24 -.85 downgraded by Goldman that's funny I was just thinking of buying this one will let it settle and look to buy lower
8:42 DJIA 9196 -70 VIX 53.35 Gold 772.90 -17.10 Oil 70.80 -3.59
Talk of a Bretton Woods type of meeting surfaces. The original meeting created the international monetary fund. This is a further step into singular international control of banking. I don't even want to get into this now. Lets just say it further centralizes the world banking system.
9:59 DJIA 9032 -233 VIX 56.10 Gold 769.50 -20.50 Oil 70.73 -3.66
Pulling back to 10 day average at 8967
11:29 DJIA 9225 -39.90 VIX 51.93 Gold 772.50 -17.50 Oil 71.45 -2.94
Still like all my positions holding Hearing airlines reccoed they like DAL 10.06 it is breaking up through 200 day now starting to get some company.
Like the action in Alcoa (AA)12.56 Also action in oil stocks ...the DIG 36.19
Apple's (AAPL) 93.72 earnings hit after the close I am interested in this one but will not front run the earnings. If they are less than expected I will buy after a 2 or 3 day selloff.
From CNBC.com
The search of a market bottom likely will continue through the rest of the year and into 2009, as signs begin to emerge that a turning point is near but not yet upon Wall Street. I won't post the article here you can read it but I love seeing this article.
Close DJIA 9033 -232 VIX 53.11 Gold 767 -27 OIL 72.18
6:24 Stock indexes indicated a lower opening as tepid earnings outlooks and worries over bank lending spread worry on Wall Street.
But worries over the health of the economy seemed to offset enthusiasm after news of a possible second stimulus package, and futures were still pointing lower.
6:42 DJIA 9169 -96 VIX 55.08 Gold 772.30 - 17.40 Oil 72.07 -2.18 Gold
Interbank Borrowing Costs Ease Broadly
The interbank cost of borrowing dollars, euros and sterling fell across all maturities on Tuesday, the British Bankers' Association's daily fixing showed.
This is telling us that the credit freeze is thawing.
The story is ping ponging back and forth between the thaw and the bad economy.
He's down he's up he's down no he's up. High drama ...a standard ploy...VIX still high we will go higher.
7:08 Like the techs here buying QLD 35.62 double QQQQ
Keep in mind the message to the public is be safe with your money. I am hearingthis market is too crazy to be in. These all fearful things and guess what the market is moving higher.
7:54 DJIA 9199 -70 VIX 53.66 Gold 777.20 -12.80 Oil 75.63 -1.76
Citibank (C)14.24 -.85 downgraded by Goldman that's funny I was just thinking of buying this one will let it settle and look to buy lower
8:42 DJIA 9196 -70 VIX 53.35 Gold 772.90 -17.10 Oil 70.80 -3.59
Talk of a Bretton Woods type of meeting surfaces. The original meeting created the international monetary fund. This is a further step into singular international control of banking. I don't even want to get into this now. Lets just say it further centralizes the world banking system.
9:59 DJIA 9032 -233 VIX 56.10 Gold 769.50 -20.50 Oil 70.73 -3.66
Pulling back to 10 day average at 8967
11:29 DJIA 9225 -39.90 VIX 51.93 Gold 772.50 -17.50 Oil 71.45 -2.94
Still like all my positions holding Hearing airlines reccoed they like DAL 10.06 it is breaking up through 200 day now starting to get some company.
Like the action in Alcoa (AA)12.56 Also action in oil stocks ...the DIG 36.19
Apple's (AAPL) 93.72 earnings hit after the close I am interested in this one but will not front run the earnings. If they are less than expected I will buy after a 2 or 3 day selloff.
From CNBC.com
The search of a market bottom likely will continue through the rest of the year and into 2009, as signs begin to emerge that a turning point is near but not yet upon Wall Street. I won't post the article here you can read it but I love seeing this article.
Close DJIA 9033 -232 VIX 53.11 Gold 767 -27 OIL 72.18
Monday, October 20, 2008
Traders still cautious
DJIA 9046 +146 VIX 58.25 Gold 795.50 +7.80 Oil 75.76 +3.91
Art Cashen trader expert trader on CNBC is still cautious and the credit markets are thawing but still no sense that this thing can go higher. Cashen sees resistance at S&P 975 and 980 and major resistance at 985. He is not convinced yet. Remember last week he thought we would retest 7700 well we are at 9046 and up 196 today. It is good until they figure it out lets hope the situation remains cloudy.
Notice oil rallying after thursday's on CNBC website call that it was going to 40.
DIG 34.18 10 day 34.40 20 day 48.29 20 day is target
UYM 24.20 10 day 24.32 20 day 34.40 20 day is target
UYG 10.43 10 day 14.12 20 day
SSO 32.32 and 40.48
These are only areas where I is see a pullback possible
12:43 DJIA 9148 +294 VIX 56.08 GOLD 794.50 +6.80 Oil 74.36 +2.51
VIX pulling back but still way too high to worry about. The rally continues.
Oil stocks rally as OPEC meets friday to cut production. Lets hope they do so we can sell the DIG and buy the DUG...the oil stock short.
Close DJIA 9265 +412 VIX 53.29 Gold 794.80 +7.10 Oil 74.61 + 2.76
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not close above 10,625 this month, it will be in a multi-year bear market and likely to be closer to the 5,000 level once the recession is over, a strategist told CNBC Monday.
From CNBC.com
"We've established a trading range (on the Dow Jones Industrial Average), although longer term we are in transition. We need to close above 10,625 this month otherwise we're confirming a multi-year bear market," said Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. I am guessing that we close above that number by the end of Oct. and the world will be saved.
They are still looking for the pullback. The beat goes on ...Mikey
Art Cashen trader expert trader on CNBC is still cautious and the credit markets are thawing but still no sense that this thing can go higher. Cashen sees resistance at S&P 975 and 980 and major resistance at 985. He is not convinced yet. Remember last week he thought we would retest 7700 well we are at 9046 and up 196 today. It is good until they figure it out lets hope the situation remains cloudy.
Notice oil rallying after thursday's on CNBC website call that it was going to 40.
DIG 34.18 10 day 34.40 20 day 48.29 20 day is target
UYM 24.20 10 day 24.32 20 day 34.40 20 day is target
UYG 10.43 10 day 14.12 20 day
SSO 32.32 and 40.48
These are only areas where I is see a pullback possible
12:43 DJIA 9148 +294 VIX 56.08 GOLD 794.50 +6.80 Oil 74.36 +2.51
VIX pulling back but still way too high to worry about. The rally continues.
Oil stocks rally as OPEC meets friday to cut production. Lets hope they do so we can sell the DIG and buy the DUG...the oil stock short.
Close DJIA 9265 +412 VIX 53.29 Gold 794.80 +7.10 Oil 74.61 + 2.76
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not close above 10,625 this month, it will be in a multi-year bear market and likely to be closer to the 5,000 level once the recession is over, a strategist told CNBC Monday.
From CNBC.com
"We've established a trading range (on the Dow Jones Industrial Average), although longer term we are in transition. We need to close above 10,625 this month otherwise we're confirming a multi-year bear market," said Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. I am guessing that we close above that number by the end of Oct. and the world will be saved.
They are still looking for the pullback. The beat goes on ...Mikey
Two Technical Indicators.
A technical indicator is a tool that a trader uses to help him determine the future direction of a market. Some indicators are used to follow the established trend and some are used to spot a reversal in trend.
The idea most traders use is that the trend is your friend. Do not assume that the current price trend will change and that is usually the case. The longer the trend the more difficult it will be to change.
The technical tool I use to project trend is the moving average. It ia a simple average of a prior number of periods. I use the following time periods. The time periods I use are the 10,20,50,90 and 200. I will use the average of these time periods for 60 minutes, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 months time periods.
The 60 minute helps me with inteaday time periods. The daily helps me with 2 to 3 month time periods. The weekly and monthly average help me with the long term trend.
Remember the long the trend the more likely is is that it will remain intact.
The other tool I use is the VIX. I uses this to help me spot a potential reversal in trend over a certain time period. In a bull market it will trade between 10 and 20. At 20 there is too much fear and expect a rally to reverse a short term downtrend. At 10 there is too much optimism and expect a reversal down in price to correct the excess of optimisim that exists at that time. In a bear market the Vix will trade between 20 and 40. When it is trading above 40 pessimism is too great and the market will tend to reverse bad to the upside for a tradeable rally in a bear market and when it trades at 20 it will tend to top and reestablish the downtrend.
Where are we now ..all my moving averages are falling but the VIX is saying that the public and the traders are way too pesimistic. Therefore, I am looking for a tradeable upside rally in a bear market.
My definition of a Bull market. When all the long term moving averages are tilting up.
A bear market is when all the long term moving averages are tilted down
The 200 day average now 11867 and falling rolled over on the hit of Jan 23 of 2008.
The 200 week average 11726 just turned down this month.
The 200 month average is rising at 8472 and just bounced off of it this last week.
Prices even though they are in a bull or bear market will tend to come back to their long term moving averages.
The fact that the 200 month is rising and is still in a solid uptrend and the fact the the VIX is off the charts indicating that the public is freaking out tells me we have an intermediate bottom that is tradeable and I want to be a buyer now.
What I think just happened is that we are entering a major bear market but that we are was oversold and are do for a very tradeable upside rally.
In the future I will post these averages when I make my trades.
Where we are now in the short term to intermediate term
We are trying to bottom in here now we have the traders looking down for a possible retest and the news is bad. The VIX is still very elevated and I am comfortable being long. I don't think we get a retest here.
The idea most traders use is that the trend is your friend. Do not assume that the current price trend will change and that is usually the case. The longer the trend the more difficult it will be to change.
The technical tool I use to project trend is the moving average. It ia a simple average of a prior number of periods. I use the following time periods. The time periods I use are the 10,20,50,90 and 200. I will use the average of these time periods for 60 minutes, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 months time periods.
The 60 minute helps me with inteaday time periods. The daily helps me with 2 to 3 month time periods. The weekly and monthly average help me with the long term trend.
Remember the long the trend the more likely is is that it will remain intact.
The other tool I use is the VIX. I uses this to help me spot a potential reversal in trend over a certain time period. In a bull market it will trade between 10 and 20. At 20 there is too much fear and expect a rally to reverse a short term downtrend. At 10 there is too much optimism and expect a reversal down in price to correct the excess of optimisim that exists at that time. In a bear market the Vix will trade between 20 and 40. When it is trading above 40 pessimism is too great and the market will tend to reverse bad to the upside for a tradeable rally in a bear market and when it trades at 20 it will tend to top and reestablish the downtrend.
Where are we now ..all my moving averages are falling but the VIX is saying that the public and the traders are way too pesimistic. Therefore, I am looking for a tradeable upside rally in a bear market.
My definition of a Bull market. When all the long term moving averages are tilting up.
A bear market is when all the long term moving averages are tilted down
The 200 day average now 11867 and falling rolled over on the hit of Jan 23 of 2008.
The 200 week average 11726 just turned down this month.
The 200 month average is rising at 8472 and just bounced off of it this last week.
Prices even though they are in a bull or bear market will tend to come back to their long term moving averages.
The fact that the 200 month is rising and is still in a solid uptrend and the fact the the VIX is off the charts indicating that the public is freaking out tells me we have an intermediate bottom that is tradeable and I want to be a buyer now.
What I think just happened is that we are entering a major bear market but that we are was oversold and are do for a very tradeable upside rally.
In the future I will post these averages when I make my trades.
Where we are now in the short term to intermediate term
We are trying to bottom in here now we have the traders looking down for a possible retest and the news is bad. The VIX is still very elevated and I am comfortable being long. I don't think we get a retest here.
There are two stories
Stocks are said to be rallying because of a decrease in the libor rate. What is the libor rate? It is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates at which banks offer to lend unsecured funds to other banks in the London wholesale money market (or interbank market). LIBOR will be slightly higher than the London Interbank Bid Rate (LIBID), the rate at which banks are prepared to accept deposits. It is roughly comparable to the U.S. Federal funds rate. In other words it is the European equivailant to the Fed funds rate. Actions being take in Europe have caused this rate to drop and it is telling the traders that the credit freeze in Europe is starting to thaw.
The First Story : The Credit Crisis
This leads me to the first story. The credit crisis. We are in this mess because the meltdown of the financial system has stopped lending between banks and therefore lending to corporations and to the consumers.
Relationships that existed between banks, insurance companies, and investment banks where leverage was accepted because of the apparent backing of insurance companies has lead to a mind boggling array of twisted financial relationships.
It reached a point where none of these financial institutions could trust each other and all dealing stopped. That is the credit problem. They did not know who to trust and stopped dealing with each other.
This brings us to last week where the governments of the world essentially took over the role of the insurance companies and started to back a signifigant portion of the financial transactions to allow the banks to trade with each other.
This is from last week:
1. The US treasury announced this week that it would directly invest up to $250 billion in numerous financial companies by purchasing preferred stock in the open market. The unprecedented move was the latest measure undertaken by the government in an attempt to soothe the ailing financial markets. The Fed will initially invest in Citigroup (NYSE: C), JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) and State Street (NYSE: STT).
Notice that the Treasury and the Fed will use the above institutions to unfreeze the system. Notice also that the treasury is taking an equity position in these comopanies. This is serious stuff. They are saying thats it we are taking a stand here.
This AM from CNBC:
Offering stocks a boost was a drop in the cost of overnight lending rates between banks. The closely watched London Interbank Offer Rate, or Libor, slipped across the board, with the overnight rate dropping to 1.51 percent, while the 3-month rate declined to 4.06 percent.
Investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks to the House Budget Committee at 10 a.m. ET. He is expected to say that we may need a second government package to stabilize the economy, according to prepared remarks.
At 11:30, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will speak, offering details of the application process for the capital-purchase program.
The market rallied on news that Libor slipped. This indicates a twaing of the credit freeze in Europe.
So in the near term the market is watching the credit frezze and any good news will produce a rally.
The second story: the Recession
From last week: Consumer confidence
U.S. consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed Friday, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sent shocks waves through the economy.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by 6.3 percent last month, a much bigger decline than the 1.6 percent decrease that had been expected. It pushed total production to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000 units. That's the slowest pace since January 1991, a period when the country was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
Well you get it, the news is telling you this may be the great depression.
When the lousy numbers come out on the economy the market tanks.
Last week was a tug of war between the two creating massive volitility.
Those are the two stories what I will do about them with my trading will be the subject of future blogs.
However, the basics are that when I buy the XLF or the UYG I am betting that the Government wins the battle and the financial system will be saved. What you will see me do is when there is bad news in this area I will be a buyer and when there is very good news I will be a seller. I have predetermined area that I am looking to buy and sell and will try to use the news to my advantage. My premise is that the system will be saved.
The same thing applies to the second story I will be buying when the economic news is bad and selling when there is a ray of hope for the economy. Again I predetermined areas that I am looking at. But I essentially will be looking to bet on the economy recovering. However there will be times when I will take the other side. When I do I will note in this blog.
Overall I am bullish now short term and think that both stories will tend to get better over the next few months. ....Ihe beat goes on
The First Story : The Credit Crisis
This leads me to the first story. The credit crisis. We are in this mess because the meltdown of the financial system has stopped lending between banks and therefore lending to corporations and to the consumers.
Relationships that existed between banks, insurance companies, and investment banks where leverage was accepted because of the apparent backing of insurance companies has lead to a mind boggling array of twisted financial relationships.
It reached a point where none of these financial institutions could trust each other and all dealing stopped. That is the credit problem. They did not know who to trust and stopped dealing with each other.
This brings us to last week where the governments of the world essentially took over the role of the insurance companies and started to back a signifigant portion of the financial transactions to allow the banks to trade with each other.
This is from last week:
1. The US treasury announced this week that it would directly invest up to $250 billion in numerous financial companies by purchasing preferred stock in the open market. The unprecedented move was the latest measure undertaken by the government in an attempt to soothe the ailing financial markets. The Fed will initially invest in Citigroup (NYSE: C), JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) and State Street (NYSE: STT).
Notice that the Treasury and the Fed will use the above institutions to unfreeze the system. Notice also that the treasury is taking an equity position in these comopanies. This is serious stuff. They are saying thats it we are taking a stand here.
This AM from CNBC:
Offering stocks a boost was a drop in the cost of overnight lending rates between banks. The closely watched London Interbank Offer Rate, or Libor, slipped across the board, with the overnight rate dropping to 1.51 percent, while the 3-month rate declined to 4.06 percent.
Investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks to the House Budget Committee at 10 a.m. ET. He is expected to say that we may need a second government package to stabilize the economy, according to prepared remarks.
At 11:30, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will speak, offering details of the application process for the capital-purchase program.
The market rallied on news that Libor slipped. This indicates a twaing of the credit freeze in Europe.
So in the near term the market is watching the credit frezze and any good news will produce a rally.
The second story: the Recession
From last week: Consumer confidence
U.S. consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed Friday, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sent shocks waves through the economy.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by 6.3 percent last month, a much bigger decline than the 1.6 percent decrease that had been expected. It pushed total production to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000 units. That's the slowest pace since January 1991, a period when the country was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
Well you get it, the news is telling you this may be the great depression.
When the lousy numbers come out on the economy the market tanks.
Last week was a tug of war between the two creating massive volitility.
Those are the two stories what I will do about them with my trading will be the subject of future blogs.
However, the basics are that when I buy the XLF or the UYG I am betting that the Government wins the battle and the financial system will be saved. What you will see me do is when there is bad news in this area I will be a buyer and when there is very good news I will be a seller. I have predetermined area that I am looking to buy and sell and will try to use the news to my advantage. My premise is that the system will be saved.
The same thing applies to the second story I will be buying when the economic news is bad and selling when there is a ray of hope for the economy. Again I predetermined areas that I am looking at. But I essentially will be looking to bet on the economy recovering. However there will be times when I will take the other side. When I do I will note in this blog.
Overall I am bullish now short term and think that both stories will tend to get better over the next few months. ....Ihe beat goes on
Saturday, October 18, 2008
That was the week that was(TW2)...The week in review ending 10/17
Last week
The market closed last week at 8451 after trading friday as low as 7882. We went into the weekend with the hope that the G7 would bailout the world. Gold an indicator of panic was at 855 and the Vix(fear index) closed at 67.61 after trading at mind boggling 81.
This week
This is a recap of the weeks major news items on Wall Street:
1. The US treasury announced this week that it would directly invest up to $250 billion in numerous financial companies by purchasing preferred stock in the open market. The unprecedented move was the latest measure undertaken by the government in an attempt to soothe the ailing financial markets. The Fed will initially invest in Citigroup (NYSE: C), JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) and State Street (NYSE: STT).
2. Stocks were extraordinarily volatile this week, even when compared to recent standards. The VIX, or commonly called the “fear indicator”, spiked to above 80 for the first time in about 20 years. Traders consider a VIX rating above 30 as severe market pessimism. Despite the extremely high level of fear, stocks traded higher this week. The Dow notched a 7% gain, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 6%.
3. Thursday night, the New York Times published an op-ed article by non-other-than Warren Buffett, entitled "Buy American. I Am." In the article, Buffett pounded the table, saying he has been buying US stocks for his personal portfolio. The legendary investor said that if stock prices continue to fall, Buffett said his non-Berkshire net worth would soon be 100% invested in US equities.
4. Hedge funds and top execs alike felt intense pain this week as they were forced to liquidate positions in order to cover redemptions and margin calls. Chesapeake's (NYSE: CHK) CEO, Aubrey McClendon, who has been buying shares of CHK since 2005, amassing more than 33 million shares, kicked off this phenomenon late last week when the company announced he was forced to sell the majority of his stake in order to cover margin calls. Check out StreetInsider.com's article Ring, Ring It's the Margin Guy... CEO's Don't Answer for a complete list of insiders who involuntarily sold stock this week. On the hedge fund front, Steve Cohen's SAC Capital announced that it had moved substantially into cash amid the current market chaos. On Tuesday, Cohen said he had about $7 billion in money-market and other short-term securities. John Paulson's Paulson & Co. also came out saying the majority of his holdings were in cash equivalents. Elsewhere across the hedge fund landscape, Highland Capital announced that it would close its flagship fund after losses on high-yield, high-risk loans and other types of debt forced the fund to liquidate. Commodities were absolutely hammered this week as many of these funds were highly involved in this sector.
6. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) finally reached a deal with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Monday, Mitsubishi closed its $9 billion equity investment in Morgan Stanley, giving Mitsubishi a 21% stake in the bank. According to the terms of the deal, MUFG has acquired $7.8 billion of perpetual non-cumulative convertible preferred stock with a 10% dividend and a conversion price of $25.25 per share, and $1.2 billion of perpetual non-cumulative non-convertible preferred stock with a 10% dividend.
7. The price of crude oil plunged more than $10 this week, falling below the $70 level on Thursday. Since the beginning of October, when oil was around $100, crude is down about 30%.
8. Gold fell more that $85 an ounce.
9. U.S. consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed Friday, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sent shocks waves through the economy.
10. Government data show construction of new homes plunged by a bigger-than-expected amount in September as builders slashed production to the slowest place since early 1991.The Commerce Department reported Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by 6.3 percent last month, a much bigger decline than the 1.6 percent decrease that had been expected. It pushed total production to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000 units. That's the slowest pace since January 1991, a period when the country was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
11. On the inflation front, the government's Consumer Price Index was unchanged in September, following a 0.1 percent decline the previous month, which is better than the consensus forecast of 0.1 percent.
With more economists saying the economy is in recession, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at its Oct. 29 meeting. The Fed's key federal funds rate is already down to 1.50 percent, following a half-point cut last week.
12. September’s 1.2 percent decline in retail sales and downward revisions in the two previous months virtually assure the first quarterly decline in consumer spending in 17 years, something economists have been worrying about for some time when it appears the government’s fiscal stimulus package was having limited effect
13. Economic activity weakened in September across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts,'' the Fed said in its Beige Book report on the state of the economy through Oct. 6
14. The G7 countries essentially backed all deposits in every bank and take equity stakes in many of them.
And finally believe it or not the market finished up 406 points for the week at 8857.
The market closed last week at 8451 after trading friday as low as 7882. We went into the weekend with the hope that the G7 would bailout the world. Gold an indicator of panic was at 855 and the Vix(fear index) closed at 67.61 after trading at mind boggling 81.
This week
This is a recap of the weeks major news items on Wall Street:
1. The US treasury announced this week that it would directly invest up to $250 billion in numerous financial companies by purchasing preferred stock in the open market. The unprecedented move was the latest measure undertaken by the government in an attempt to soothe the ailing financial markets. The Fed will initially invest in Citigroup (NYSE: C), JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) and State Street (NYSE: STT).
2. Stocks were extraordinarily volatile this week, even when compared to recent standards. The VIX, or commonly called the “fear indicator”, spiked to above 80 for the first time in about 20 years. Traders consider a VIX rating above 30 as severe market pessimism. Despite the extremely high level of fear, stocks traded higher this week. The Dow notched a 7% gain, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 6%.
3. Thursday night, the New York Times published an op-ed article by non-other-than Warren Buffett, entitled "Buy American. I Am." In the article, Buffett pounded the table, saying he has been buying US stocks for his personal portfolio. The legendary investor said that if stock prices continue to fall, Buffett said his non-Berkshire net worth would soon be 100% invested in US equities.
4. Hedge funds and top execs alike felt intense pain this week as they were forced to liquidate positions in order to cover redemptions and margin calls. Chesapeake's (NYSE: CHK) CEO, Aubrey McClendon, who has been buying shares of CHK since 2005, amassing more than 33 million shares, kicked off this phenomenon late last week when the company announced he was forced to sell the majority of his stake in order to cover margin calls. Check out StreetInsider.com's article Ring, Ring It's the Margin Guy... CEO's Don't Answer for a complete list of insiders who involuntarily sold stock this week. On the hedge fund front, Steve Cohen's SAC Capital announced that it had moved substantially into cash amid the current market chaos. On Tuesday, Cohen said he had about $7 billion in money-market and other short-term securities. John Paulson's Paulson & Co. also came out saying the majority of his holdings were in cash equivalents. Elsewhere across the hedge fund landscape, Highland Capital announced that it would close its flagship fund after losses on high-yield, high-risk loans and other types of debt forced the fund to liquidate. Commodities were absolutely hammered this week as many of these funds were highly involved in this sector.
6. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) finally reached a deal with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Monday, Mitsubishi closed its $9 billion equity investment in Morgan Stanley, giving Mitsubishi a 21% stake in the bank. According to the terms of the deal, MUFG has acquired $7.8 billion of perpetual non-cumulative convertible preferred stock with a 10% dividend and a conversion price of $25.25 per share, and $1.2 billion of perpetual non-cumulative non-convertible preferred stock with a 10% dividend.
7. The price of crude oil plunged more than $10 this week, falling below the $70 level on Thursday. Since the beginning of October, when oil was around $100, crude is down about 30%.
8. Gold fell more that $85 an ounce.
9. U.S. consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed Friday, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sent shocks waves through the economy.
10. Government data show construction of new homes plunged by a bigger-than-expected amount in September as builders slashed production to the slowest place since early 1991.The Commerce Department reported Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by 6.3 percent last month, a much bigger decline than the 1.6 percent decrease that had been expected. It pushed total production to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000 units. That's the slowest pace since January 1991, a period when the country was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
11. On the inflation front, the government's Consumer Price Index was unchanged in September, following a 0.1 percent decline the previous month, which is better than the consensus forecast of 0.1 percent.
With more economists saying the economy is in recession, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at its Oct. 29 meeting. The Fed's key federal funds rate is already down to 1.50 percent, following a half-point cut last week.
12. September’s 1.2 percent decline in retail sales and downward revisions in the two previous months virtually assure the first quarterly decline in consumer spending in 17 years, something economists have been worrying about for some time when it appears the government’s fiscal stimulus package was having limited effect
13. Economic activity weakened in September across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts,'' the Fed said in its Beige Book report on the state of the economy through Oct. 6
14. The G7 countries essentially backed all deposits in every bank and take equity stakes in many of them.
And finally believe it or not the market finished up 406 points for the week at 8857.
Friday, October 17, 2008
There is only one hedge fund left ...It's crazy Henry
Here comes Paulson with the 600 billion. I'm betting on you Hank
Futures ..Pre Market fall after Housing report...Yawn
6:23 From CNBC.com
U.S. consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed Friday, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sent shocks waves through the economy.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence plummeted to 57.5 in October from 70.3 in September.
"Consumer confidence in early October registered its largest monthly decline in the history of the surveys," the report said. The index is now at its lowest since June this year.
The report said there have only been four surveys that posted monthly declines of 10 index points or more.
"All of the prior double-digit declines were based on severe economic dislocations with the losses accelerated by fear and panic," the report said.
The index came out well below economists' expectations for a reading of 65.5, according to the median of their forecasts in a Reuters poll.
Their 64 forecasts ranged from 55.0 to 70.0. The University of Michigan confidence index dates back to 1952. Its record low was 51.7, which it hit in May 1980.
Government data show construction of new homes plunged by a bigger-than-expected amount in September as builders slashed production to the slowest place since early 1991.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by 6.3 percent last month, a much bigger decline than the 1.6 percent decrease that had been expected. It pushed total production to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000 units. That's the slowest pace since January 1991, a period when the country was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
Yada Yada Yada
There is some happy news for you today
WHAT A SURPRISE. I AM SHOCKED I THOUGHT NEW HOUSES WERE POPPING UP ALL OVER AND EVERYONE WAS AS HAPPY AS HELL.
Well I'm an optimist so about 1/2 hour after the open I will fire 1 on the XHB.
The XHB is the home builders ETF composed of home building stocks. I remember that in 2006 the experts were saying that homebuilding was going to the moon and would never stop. That didn't work. Well then the Fed had been raising interest rates for over a year and was trying to pop the housing bubble. Now they are slashing interest rates and buying up every mortgage in sight. Along those lines the thought occurs to me that if they are going to put Humpty Dumpty back together again then ABK 2.50 (Ambak) and MBI 8.58(MBIA) are going to rise from the ashes.
Fire 1 on XHB 13.83 down from 46
Fire 1 on ABK 2.50 down from 95
Fire 1 on MBI 8.58 down from 75
6:36 DJIA 8737 -242 VIX 73.08 Gold 787 -17 Oil 70.58 +.63
Look at this one from CNBC.com
The price of a barrel of crude could lose another $20 and the broader commodity market could slump by a third as the recent downtrend is set to intensify, Phil Roberts, technical analyst from Barclays Capital, told CNBC.
"The commodity market is still very much pricing in a further slow down and the signs we're seeing at the moment suggest that the process is intensifying rather than diminishing," Roberts said while taking a technical look at the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index.
The GSCI, which tracks a broad basket of commodities including oil, wheat and lean hogs, could lose another 30 percent to 40 percent, according to Roberts.
To that I say it has already dropped 45% you moron.
What this means is that commodities are nearing a low but to prove to you that inflation is dead they are going to meltdown Gold.
I think it is time to go long on the commodities and oil I will stay short Gold
UYM ETF for basic materials is 21.43
DIG ETF for oil stocks is 28.33
I already own 2 positions on both no new buys here but am watching the target if they go lower.
Since the economy is going to be so bad I think I'll buy IP Intl Paper and AA Alcoa
Fire 1 IP 17.85 down from 42 when things were good don't you know
Fire 2 AA 12.08 down from 48 ditto
Gold at 789.60 -14.90 Know that the Gold stocks are saying that Gold is going to at least its 2006 low soon. The GDX is the Gold miners ETF shares now 21.98 down from 54this March a 41% decline. Whereas gold is 878 down from 1000 this March a 12% decline. Gold will now catch up I am guessing at least to the high 500's. When they hit Gold the Gold stocks will be already down. You will then see an article saying that Gold is going down to 400.
Then the sellers will come in thats when I buy the GDX.
Gee the airlines are going up UAUA now 11.75 was 5 bucks just 19 days ago. my my my how things change
9:45 DJIA 8995 + 10.91 VIX 70.51 Gold 781.40 -23.10 Oil 71.55 +1.70
The XHB housing stock ETF is UNCH hmmmm
DJIA positive now and VIX still off the charts on the fear side is mind blowing. We are going higher.
9:54 DJIA 9090 +111 right up against the 10 day ave if we can break above this then look out it will be a straight shot to 10000
The cover story here is the bad economy.
10:04 DJIA 9163 +183 Remember this is options expiration day things could get crazy here with all those puts bought the last two weeks. Come on HANK goose them today
10:23 DJIA 9182 + 202 Atta boy Hank baby
11:25 DJIA 9089 +111 pulling back to 10 day now
11:33 DJIA 9120 +141 According to the expert trader Art Cashen of UBS he is not sure we have bottomed yet he is waitng until next week. That my friends is good news when he figures that we have bottomed I take profits. Let's hope when he figures it out he says buy the pullback
12:44 DJIA 8972 -6 Gold 787.80 -16.70 Oil 72.08 +2.23
What I am hearing..The rally may have just been option related. In other words, it was just technical and there is nothing to support it in the fundamentals, and therfore it won't hold. I am hearing the fundamentals are bad and the recession may be a depression so why buy stocks. They say the way to go is to buy cheap bonds.
Mikey says ......I love stocks in here and I will continue to buy.
Close DJIA 8852 -127 VIX Gold 785.30 -19.20 Oil 71.75 +1.90
If we pullback early next week and I get good prices I add on
Lets see where they take us next week .The beat goes on ...Mikey
U.S. consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed Friday, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sent shocks waves through the economy.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence plummeted to 57.5 in October from 70.3 in September.
"Consumer confidence in early October registered its largest monthly decline in the history of the surveys," the report said. The index is now at its lowest since June this year.
The report said there have only been four surveys that posted monthly declines of 10 index points or more.
"All of the prior double-digit declines were based on severe economic dislocations with the losses accelerated by fear and panic," the report said.
The index came out well below economists' expectations for a reading of 65.5, according to the median of their forecasts in a Reuters poll.
Their 64 forecasts ranged from 55.0 to 70.0. The University of Michigan confidence index dates back to 1952. Its record low was 51.7, which it hit in May 1980.
Government data show construction of new homes plunged by a bigger-than-expected amount in September as builders slashed production to the slowest place since early 1991.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by 6.3 percent last month, a much bigger decline than the 1.6 percent decrease that had been expected. It pushed total production to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000 units. That's the slowest pace since January 1991, a period when the country was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
Yada Yada Yada
There is some happy news for you today
WHAT A SURPRISE. I AM SHOCKED I THOUGHT NEW HOUSES WERE POPPING UP ALL OVER AND EVERYONE WAS AS HAPPY AS HELL.
Well I'm an optimist so about 1/2 hour after the open I will fire 1 on the XHB.
The XHB is the home builders ETF composed of home building stocks. I remember that in 2006 the experts were saying that homebuilding was going to the moon and would never stop. That didn't work. Well then the Fed had been raising interest rates for over a year and was trying to pop the housing bubble. Now they are slashing interest rates and buying up every mortgage in sight. Along those lines the thought occurs to me that if they are going to put Humpty Dumpty back together again then ABK 2.50 (Ambak) and MBI 8.58(MBIA) are going to rise from the ashes.
Fire 1 on XHB 13.83 down from 46
Fire 1 on ABK 2.50 down from 95
Fire 1 on MBI 8.58 down from 75
6:36 DJIA 8737 -242 VIX 73.08 Gold 787 -17 Oil 70.58 +.63
Look at this one from CNBC.com
The price of a barrel of crude could lose another $20 and the broader commodity market could slump by a third as the recent downtrend is set to intensify, Phil Roberts, technical analyst from Barclays Capital, told CNBC.
"The commodity market is still very much pricing in a further slow down and the signs we're seeing at the moment suggest that the process is intensifying rather than diminishing," Roberts said while taking a technical look at the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index.
The GSCI, which tracks a broad basket of commodities including oil, wheat and lean hogs, could lose another 30 percent to 40 percent, according to Roberts.
To that I say it has already dropped 45% you moron.
What this means is that commodities are nearing a low but to prove to you that inflation is dead they are going to meltdown Gold.
I think it is time to go long on the commodities and oil I will stay short Gold
UYM ETF for basic materials is 21.43
DIG ETF for oil stocks is 28.33
I already own 2 positions on both no new buys here but am watching the target if they go lower.
Since the economy is going to be so bad I think I'll buy IP Intl Paper and AA Alcoa
Fire 1 IP 17.85 down from 42 when things were good don't you know
Fire 2 AA 12.08 down from 48 ditto
Gold at 789.60 -14.90 Know that the Gold stocks are saying that Gold is going to at least its 2006 low soon. The GDX is the Gold miners ETF shares now 21.98 down from 54this March a 41% decline. Whereas gold is 878 down from 1000 this March a 12% decline. Gold will now catch up I am guessing at least to the high 500's. When they hit Gold the Gold stocks will be already down. You will then see an article saying that Gold is going down to 400.
Then the sellers will come in thats when I buy the GDX.
Gee the airlines are going up UAUA now 11.75 was 5 bucks just 19 days ago. my my my how things change
9:45 DJIA 8995 + 10.91 VIX 70.51 Gold 781.40 -23.10 Oil 71.55 +1.70
The XHB housing stock ETF is UNCH hmmmm
DJIA positive now and VIX still off the charts on the fear side is mind blowing. We are going higher.
9:54 DJIA 9090 +111 right up against the 10 day ave if we can break above this then look out it will be a straight shot to 10000
The cover story here is the bad economy.
10:04 DJIA 9163 +183 Remember this is options expiration day things could get crazy here with all those puts bought the last two weeks. Come on HANK goose them today
10:23 DJIA 9182 + 202 Atta boy Hank baby
11:25 DJIA 9089 +111 pulling back to 10 day now
11:33 DJIA 9120 +141 According to the expert trader Art Cashen of UBS he is not sure we have bottomed yet he is waitng until next week. That my friends is good news when he figures that we have bottomed I take profits. Let's hope when he figures it out he says buy the pullback
12:44 DJIA 8972 -6 Gold 787.80 -16.70 Oil 72.08 +2.23
What I am hearing..The rally may have just been option related. In other words, it was just technical and there is nothing to support it in the fundamentals, and therfore it won't hold. I am hearing the fundamentals are bad and the recession may be a depression so why buy stocks. They say the way to go is to buy cheap bonds.
Mikey says ......I love stocks in here and I will continue to buy.
Close DJIA 8852 -127 VIX Gold 785.30 -19.20 Oil 71.75 +1.90
If we pullback early next week and I get good prices I add on
Lets see where they take us next week .The beat goes on ...Mikey
Thursday, October 16, 2008
They are all waiting for the retest
11:10 DJAI 8574 -6.93 VIX 77.20 Gold 803 -35.70 Oil 70.59 -3.95
The pundits all think we retest 7700 the low from last friday. Today as of yet that has not happen and who knows it may. I have learned that when the traders are all looking in one direction it usually goes the other way. That would be my guess. The options expire tomarrow. That can be interesting in that alot of surprises have happened on the day before option expiration. I know that there have been a ton of puts bought over the last 2 weeks that includes the next 3 months of OCT NOV and DEC.
I think that the Nov and Dec puts will be worthless what would be cool is the OCT were also but they may have run on the rally on Monday Tuesday.
12:43 DJIA 8867 +289 VIX 78.10
Nice reversal so far looking good. VIX is still high so they are still scared ...that's good for the good guys.
Close DJIA 8979 +401 VIX 67.61 Gold 801.50 -34 Oil 69.85 -4.69 They are still waiting for the retest and the VIX says they are still scared.
The beat goes on ...Mikey
The pundits all think we retest 7700 the low from last friday. Today as of yet that has not happen and who knows it may. I have learned that when the traders are all looking in one direction it usually goes the other way. That would be my guess. The options expire tomarrow. That can be interesting in that alot of surprises have happened on the day before option expiration. I know that there have been a ton of puts bought over the last 2 weeks that includes the next 3 months of OCT NOV and DEC.
I think that the Nov and Dec puts will be worthless what would be cool is the OCT were also but they may have run on the rally on Monday Tuesday.
12:43 DJIA 8867 +289 VIX 78.10
Nice reversal so far looking good. VIX is still high so they are still scared ...that's good for the good guys.
Close DJIA 8979 +401 VIX 67.61 Gold 801.50 -34 Oil 69.85 -4.69 They are still waiting for the retest and the VIX says they are still scared.
The beat goes on ...Mikey
No Inflation..That was quick and lower rates..That's a good thing
On the inflation front, the government's Consumer Price Index was unchanged in September, following a 0.1 percent decline the previous month, which is better than the consensus forecast of 0.1 percent.
With more economists saying the economy is in recession, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at its Oct. 29 meeting. The Fed's key federal funds rate is already down to 1.50 percent, following a half-point cut last week.
Just 3 short months ago inflation was out of control..remember. Gas was 4.60 a gallon and inflation was rampant. Well welcome to October where the new buzz words are deflation and recession. It shows you how things can change in 3 months. I'll bet that in 3 months..and I am betting...that the crisis will be a distant memory and everything will seem much better.
That is the way of the world. Inflation what inflation. How did that inflation play..(buy the oil stocks and commodities because of the Global growth and never ending demand for oil and commodities would drive prices higher and they would never come down again) work for the experts. Now the experts want you to be safe with your money. You know own Gold and buy bonds. I think in 3 months that one doesn't work either.
6:04 Looks like we open higher this AM
I think today the 600 billion starts comming into the markets..Lets see
6:38 DJIA 8606 +24 VIX 69.23 GOLD 821.60 -17.40 Oil 73.34 -1.20 RBOB Futures
Gold starting to crack here that's good news gang.
Oil stocks have been just clocked now the earning s are going to come in and I suspect they will be very good. Woops!!
7:17 DJIA 8464 -117 VIX 73.46 GOLD 803.60-35.40 Gasoline the RBOB futures are now 1.6847 -.10 Oil now 72.37 -2.12
The API weekly Oil inventory report comes today at about 7:30.
We will see Gas under 3 bucks very soon that's a good thing.
Stay positive gang the calvary is comming
A word about Delta (DAL)7.70 I think this company is a flat out winner after the merger and lower fuel cost. The seat capacity will be reduced and the company is designed to survive with oil at $100 since fuel costs represent such a big portion of costs the trip to $40 oil will make their bottom line go bonkers. I am buying and holding this one for the long term.
8:38 Oil 69.33 -5.21 Notice that the DIG is only down 1 now this is what happens the commodity follows the stocks down the Oil stocks have already discounted the oil move in advance and once oil cracks big people sell their oil stocks because they have a reason to. That is when we buy its getting close.
8:42 DJIA 8374 -200 Market feels good to me here
Fire 2 on DIG 25.10
9:13 The story on the credit markets is clearly improving now. Commercial paper rates are now falling.
With more economists saying the economy is in recession, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at its Oct. 29 meeting. The Fed's key federal funds rate is already down to 1.50 percent, following a half-point cut last week.
Just 3 short months ago inflation was out of control..remember. Gas was 4.60 a gallon and inflation was rampant. Well welcome to October where the new buzz words are deflation and recession. It shows you how things can change in 3 months. I'll bet that in 3 months..and I am betting...that the crisis will be a distant memory and everything will seem much better.
That is the way of the world. Inflation what inflation. How did that inflation play..(buy the oil stocks and commodities because of the Global growth and never ending demand for oil and commodities would drive prices higher and they would never come down again) work for the experts. Now the experts want you to be safe with your money. You know own Gold and buy bonds. I think in 3 months that one doesn't work either.
6:04 Looks like we open higher this AM
I think today the 600 billion starts comming into the markets..Lets see
6:38 DJIA 8606 +24 VIX 69.23 GOLD 821.60 -17.40 Oil 73.34 -1.20 RBOB Futures
Gold starting to crack here that's good news gang.
Oil stocks have been just clocked now the earning s are going to come in and I suspect they will be very good. Woops!!
7:17 DJIA 8464 -117 VIX 73.46 GOLD 803.60-35.40 Gasoline the RBOB futures are now 1.6847 -.10 Oil now 72.37 -2.12
The API weekly Oil inventory report comes today at about 7:30.
We will see Gas under 3 bucks very soon that's a good thing.
Stay positive gang the calvary is comming
A word about Delta (DAL)7.70 I think this company is a flat out winner after the merger and lower fuel cost. The seat capacity will be reduced and the company is designed to survive with oil at $100 since fuel costs represent such a big portion of costs the trip to $40 oil will make their bottom line go bonkers. I am buying and holding this one for the long term.
8:38 Oil 69.33 -5.21 Notice that the DIG is only down 1 now this is what happens the commodity follows the stocks down the Oil stocks have already discounted the oil move in advance and once oil cracks big people sell their oil stocks because they have a reason to. That is when we buy its getting close.
8:42 DJIA 8374 -200 Market feels good to me here
Fire 2 on DIG 25.10
9:13 The story on the credit markets is clearly improving now. Commercial paper rates are now falling.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Pulling back on Bad news
The news from CNBC.com this AM ...Very Gloomy
Now that the US consumer has finally hit the wall, there’s growing speculation the Federal Reserve will push its interest rate pedal to the floor.
September’s 1.2 percent decline in retail sales and downward revisions in the two previous months virtually assure the first quarterly decline in consumer spending in 17 years, something economists have been worrying about for some time when it appears the government’s fiscal stimulus package was having limited effect.
I've said since the summer that a ‘dark period’ of economic data lie ahead,” ”Miller & Tabak’s chief bond market analyst Tony Crescenzi told clients in a note.
“The sad reality is that it will take quite a long period for the consumer sector to recharge and that will in turn maintain pressure on financials,” says Hastings. “The ripple effects are already being felt in technology sector and will soon affect industrials."
From the Fed Beige book:
Economic activity weakened across the United States in September as businesses rethought capital investments, consumers curtailed spending and the general outlook darkened, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
"Economic activity weakened in September across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts,'' the Fed said in its Beige Book report on the state of the economy through Oct. 6
To This I say DAH!!!!
6:44 DJIA 9094 -216 VIX 59.51 GOLD 838.0 -.60 OIL 76.08 -2.62
Like these prices buying back 1/4 SSO 33.15 1/4 UYG 11.60 1/4 UYM 23.63
Airlines sneaking up adding to my DAL 7.71
7:29 DJIA 9018 -288 VIX 59.51 GOLD 849 +10 -.60 OIL 75.52 -3.02
The economic news here is very gloomy, started my buy backs from yesterdays sales
will give it room and not add to quickly
Looking to buy the DIG 31.56...oil long near prior lows of 22
9:55 DJIA 8943 -367 Bernanke speaking to Economic club a calming speech.
11:27 DJIA 8817 -499 VIX 64.63 Gold 850+10.5 Oil 74.81 -3.81
What will make the market rally when we are going into a recession and all of this gloomy talk abounds. I don't know but we embrace the law of uncertainty here and trust it I will add on near the close. Remember we do not know when we are going to win but just that we are going to win. That is enough.
11:38 Adding to SSO 31.14 UYG 10.98
I am hearing that the smart money is in cash not worth the risk of being in they are saying move to the sidelines. I am hearing if there is a rally sell it. THIS IS A RETEST AND I FEEL GOOD THAT THIS IS THE LOW.
Will buy the close
The Close DJIA 8581 -731 VIX 68.42 GOLD 848.70 +9.2 OIL 74.81 -4.45
CNBC is working this selloff spreading lots of doom and gloom. Bought 1/4 DDM on close 32.68
Now that the US consumer has finally hit the wall, there’s growing speculation the Federal Reserve will push its interest rate pedal to the floor.
September’s 1.2 percent decline in retail sales and downward revisions in the two previous months virtually assure the first quarterly decline in consumer spending in 17 years, something economists have been worrying about for some time when it appears the government’s fiscal stimulus package was having limited effect.
I've said since the summer that a ‘dark period’ of economic data lie ahead,” ”Miller & Tabak’s chief bond market analyst Tony Crescenzi told clients in a note.
“The sad reality is that it will take quite a long period for the consumer sector to recharge and that will in turn maintain pressure on financials,” says Hastings. “The ripple effects are already being felt in technology sector and will soon affect industrials."
From the Fed Beige book:
Economic activity weakened across the United States in September as businesses rethought capital investments, consumers curtailed spending and the general outlook darkened, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
"Economic activity weakened in September across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts,'' the Fed said in its Beige Book report on the state of the economy through Oct. 6
To This I say DAH!!!!
6:44 DJIA 9094 -216 VIX 59.51 GOLD 838.0 -.60 OIL 76.08 -2.62
Like these prices buying back 1/4 SSO 33.15 1/4 UYG 11.60 1/4 UYM 23.63
Airlines sneaking up adding to my DAL 7.71
7:29 DJIA 9018 -288 VIX 59.51 GOLD 849 +10 -.60 OIL 75.52 -3.02
The economic news here is very gloomy, started my buy backs from yesterdays sales
will give it room and not add to quickly
Looking to buy the DIG 31.56...oil long near prior lows of 22
9:55 DJIA 8943 -367 Bernanke speaking to Economic club a calming speech.
11:27 DJIA 8817 -499 VIX 64.63 Gold 850+10.5 Oil 74.81 -3.81
What will make the market rally when we are going into a recession and all of this gloomy talk abounds. I don't know but we embrace the law of uncertainty here and trust it I will add on near the close. Remember we do not know when we are going to win but just that we are going to win. That is enough.
11:38 Adding to SSO 31.14 UYG 10.98
I am hearing that the smart money is in cash not worth the risk of being in they are saying move to the sidelines. I am hearing if there is a rally sell it. THIS IS A RETEST AND I FEEL GOOD THAT THIS IS THE LOW.
Will buy the close
The Close DJIA 8581 -731 VIX 68.42 GOLD 848.70 +9.2 OIL 74.81 -4.45
CNBC is working this selloff spreading lots of doom and gloom. Bought 1/4 DDM on close 32.68
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
The world is saved
Now profitable on SSO UYG XLF MS positions selling 3/4 of these to reduce exposure near the open.
From CNBC.com:
The US government Tuesday outlined three new initiatives to aid financial institutions amid a historic credit crunch that has frozen lending around the world, which fundamentally change the nation's historic hands-off relationship between government and the private sector.
The moves include a recapitalization of banks, federal guarantees on new bank debt for three years and FDIC insurance for non-interest bearing accounts, mirroring measures taken by other members of the Group of Seven nations.
In a morning news conference Tuesday, President Bush outlined what he called "unprecedented steps" as part of a "coordinated plan of action."
"Each of these new programs contains safeguards to protect the taxpayers," said Bush. "The government's role will be limited and temporary."
Though the bulk of the efforts are directed at financial institutions, Bush made sure to mention that the moves would also help retirement accounts, college savings and small business.
Market watchers applauded the measures, even though critics say the size of the recapitalization plan may be a bit small given the size of the industry and its astronomical amount of outstanding debt.
Revised Rescue Plan at a Glance
U.S. Treasury says to buy up to $250 billion in senior preferred, nonvoting shares in financial institutions.
Treasury says maximum purchase amount will be $25 billion per institution.
Treasury sets deadline of Nov 14 for banks to participate in equity purchase program.
Treasury says preferred shares to pay 5 percent a year for first 5 years, 9 percent after 5 years.
Treasury says firms in program must adopt Treasury's standards executive pay, corporate governance.
Treasury says for firms in program, compensation for top execs won't be tax deductible above $500,000.
Bush said the funding will come from the $700 billion set aside for an auction plan under the emergency legislation of two weeks ago. Participating institutions will also have to abide by the law's restrictions on CEO compensation, including a ban on golden parachutes.
The recap plan is open to participants only until Nov. 14. It has a a maximum of $25 billion for any one institution.
The government will get preferred stock for its equity stake, but without voting rights, which it can redeem after three years.
Under the plan, the US government would take $25 billion in preferred stock in Bank of America [BAC 25.75 2.96 (+12.99%)], Wells Fargo [WFC 33.59 3.19 (+10.49%)], Citigroup [C 18.01 2.26 (+14.35%)], JPMorgan Chase [JPM 40.91 -1.08 (-2.57%)], Goldman Sachs [GS 125.20 14.20 (+12.79%)], Morgan Stanley [MS 22.68 4.58 (+25.3%)] and Bank of New York [BK 32.83 2.15 (+7.01%)].
The above mentioned banks are your long term winners.
6:53 Sold UYG 12.85 MS 22.75 XLF 17.65 SSO 38.90 will eval after the dust settles.
Think we go higher but reducing exposure in here
7:21 DJIA 9534 +145 VIX 63.99 GOLD 837.50 -5 OIL 82.03 +.84
I want to make it clear I think we go higher but I got over exposed on this hit and had to make 6 buys on the positions I sold this AM just reducing these to give me more flexibility. The major trend is down and the market got extremely oversold I made a mistake in trying to play a rally I thought was going to happen into the election. I want to be short to get with the major trend and will be looking to do so at some point in the future. I am looking at the DUG (OIL Stock double short ETF)now at 45.75 want it at 41 to start the positioning. You know 1/4 position etc. This one had a high of 86 friday and will see that again. Also want to buy DXD 74 (double short DJIA ETF) but want it at 63 for 1/4 its high friday was 111 and will see that again. But that is in the future. I am expecting the market to hold up for the next 2months. But will eval after I hear more. Lets see if they like this rally or they say it won't last. I am listening will let you know what I hear.
One thing I think is going to happen is that the volitility of the market is going to slow way down.
12:23 DJIA 9235 - 149 VIX 57.21 Gold 841.60- .90 Oil 79.19 -2.02
I like this action will put in a buy on the SSO at 32.5 1/4 buy starting all over again
12;41 XLF ..financials clearly standing out as a high relative strength group XLF 17.08 + .83 UYG 12.35 + 1.35
From CNBC.com:
The US government Tuesday outlined three new initiatives to aid financial institutions amid a historic credit crunch that has frozen lending around the world, which fundamentally change the nation's historic hands-off relationship between government and the private sector.
The moves include a recapitalization of banks, federal guarantees on new bank debt for three years and FDIC insurance for non-interest bearing accounts, mirroring measures taken by other members of the Group of Seven nations.
In a morning news conference Tuesday, President Bush outlined what he called "unprecedented steps" as part of a "coordinated plan of action."
"Each of these new programs contains safeguards to protect the taxpayers," said Bush. "The government's role will be limited and temporary."
Though the bulk of the efforts are directed at financial institutions, Bush made sure to mention that the moves would also help retirement accounts, college savings and small business.
Market watchers applauded the measures, even though critics say the size of the recapitalization plan may be a bit small given the size of the industry and its astronomical amount of outstanding debt.
Revised Rescue Plan at a Glance
U.S. Treasury says to buy up to $250 billion in senior preferred, nonvoting shares in financial institutions.
Treasury says maximum purchase amount will be $25 billion per institution.
Treasury sets deadline of Nov 14 for banks to participate in equity purchase program.
Treasury says preferred shares to pay 5 percent a year for first 5 years, 9 percent after 5 years.
Treasury says firms in program must adopt Treasury's standards executive pay, corporate governance.
Treasury says for firms in program, compensation for top execs won't be tax deductible above $500,000.
Bush said the funding will come from the $700 billion set aside for an auction plan under the emergency legislation of two weeks ago. Participating institutions will also have to abide by the law's restrictions on CEO compensation, including a ban on golden parachutes.
The recap plan is open to participants only until Nov. 14. It has a a maximum of $25 billion for any one institution.
The government will get preferred stock for its equity stake, but without voting rights, which it can redeem after three years.
Under the plan, the US government would take $25 billion in preferred stock in Bank of America [BAC 25.75 2.96 (+12.99%)], Wells Fargo [WFC 33.59 3.19 (+10.49%)], Citigroup [C 18.01 2.26 (+14.35%)], JPMorgan Chase [JPM 40.91 -1.08 (-2.57%)], Goldman Sachs [GS 125.20 14.20 (+12.79%)], Morgan Stanley [MS 22.68 4.58 (+25.3%)] and Bank of New York [BK 32.83 2.15 (+7.01%)].
The above mentioned banks are your long term winners.
6:53 Sold UYG 12.85 MS 22.75 XLF 17.65 SSO 38.90 will eval after the dust settles.
Think we go higher but reducing exposure in here
7:21 DJIA 9534 +145 VIX 63.99 GOLD 837.50 -5 OIL 82.03 +.84
I want to make it clear I think we go higher but I got over exposed on this hit and had to make 6 buys on the positions I sold this AM just reducing these to give me more flexibility. The major trend is down and the market got extremely oversold I made a mistake in trying to play a rally I thought was going to happen into the election. I want to be short to get with the major trend and will be looking to do so at some point in the future. I am looking at the DUG (OIL Stock double short ETF)now at 45.75 want it at 41 to start the positioning. You know 1/4 position etc. This one had a high of 86 friday and will see that again. Also want to buy DXD 74 (double short DJIA ETF) but want it at 63 for 1/4 its high friday was 111 and will see that again. But that is in the future. I am expecting the market to hold up for the next 2months. But will eval after I hear more. Lets see if they like this rally or they say it won't last. I am listening will let you know what I hear.
One thing I think is going to happen is that the volitility of the market is going to slow way down.
12:23 DJIA 9235 - 149 VIX 57.21 Gold 841.60- .90 Oil 79.19 -2.02
I like this action will put in a buy on the SSO at 32.5 1/4 buy starting all over again
12;41 XLF ..financials clearly standing out as a high relative strength group XLF 17.08 + .83 UYG 12.35 + 1.35
Monday, October 13, 2008
What just happened and what is to come
9:53 DJIA 9041 + 590 VIX 60.44 GOLD 837 -22 OIL 81.13 +3.44
The Market just discounted the entire recession in 2 weeks. The prices that we saw last week were good ones. They were incredibly cheap by any standards. That is the good news ..the bad news is that we will see those prices again in the future. The economic news will keep getting bad for the next year and the stock prices will follow. The thing to do here is to sell this rally. This is tricky but this rally will be the best one we see in a long time.
I bought the breakdown in this thing starting at about 10300 and continued to buy all the way down. I will look to sell all my positions if we see 10300.
It was my opinion that the crash would not happen before the election. I was wrong but will make a profit from this mistake if we rally to 10300. I think the public is going to be told that everything is OK now. They will sell off Gold and selloff the bond market tomarrow to let the traders know its ok now.
According to the story the key to the stock market is taking its key from bonds. There is panic buying in the bond market. They want to see the bonds selloff. The problem is that today the Bond markets are closed for Columbus day so uncertainty is still there. I am guessing that the bond market sells off tomarrow and the all clear whistle is blown. That is my cue to step to the sidelines.
12:15 DJIA 9103 + 651.60 Chuga Chuga
DIG 34 looks like a buy adding here UYM 26.29 a buy turning the corner
Close DJIA 9398 +947 VIX 54.99 GOLD 834 -25 Oil 82.23 + 4.60 That will teach them to mess with us. Like I said welcome to option expiration week where all things are possible.Have a good Day...Mikey The beat goes on.
The Market just discounted the entire recession in 2 weeks. The prices that we saw last week were good ones. They were incredibly cheap by any standards. That is the good news ..the bad news is that we will see those prices again in the future. The economic news will keep getting bad for the next year and the stock prices will follow. The thing to do here is to sell this rally. This is tricky but this rally will be the best one we see in a long time.
I bought the breakdown in this thing starting at about 10300 and continued to buy all the way down. I will look to sell all my positions if we see 10300.
It was my opinion that the crash would not happen before the election. I was wrong but will make a profit from this mistake if we rally to 10300. I think the public is going to be told that everything is OK now. They will sell off Gold and selloff the bond market tomarrow to let the traders know its ok now.
According to the story the key to the stock market is taking its key from bonds. There is panic buying in the bond market. They want to see the bonds selloff. The problem is that today the Bond markets are closed for Columbus day so uncertainty is still there. I am guessing that the bond market sells off tomarrow and the all clear whistle is blown. That is my cue to step to the sidelines.
12:15 DJIA 9103 + 651.60 Chuga Chuga
DIG 34 looks like a buy adding here UYM 26.29 a buy turning the corner
Close DJIA 9398 +947 VIX 54.99 GOLD 834 -25 Oil 82.23 + 4.60 That will teach them to mess with us. Like I said welcome to option expiration week where all things are possible.Have a good Day...Mikey The beat goes on.
Welcome to options expiration week
From CNBC.com
Money market rates eased on Monday after Europe's central banks said they would lend commercial banks as much U.S. dollar funding as they need.
In the latest joint bid to thaw frozen money markets the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank also scrapped their existing dollar auction systems and replaced them with a new fixed rate system.
"Counterparties in these operations will be able to borrow any amount they wish against the appropriate collateral in each jurisdiction," the Fed said in a st
"Central banks will continue to work together and are prepared to take whatever measures are necessary to provide sufficient liquidity in short-term funding markets." The Bank of Japan said it would also consider similar measures and the Fed said it would increase its currency swap lines with the ECB, SNB and BOE by an unspecified amount to fund the operations.
The moves were welcomed by traders and had an instant impact as three-month Libor dollar rates fell.
"I think they will be hugely helpful, to be honest and the market has a better feel today," said one London-based money market trader. "Given the fact that they are going to allot whatever you need it should bring levels down particularly at the short end."
The move follows top-level meetings over the weekend in Washington and Paris, where policymakers vowed to bring an end to the credit rout which is threatening to tip the global economy into recession.
After several high-profile bank collapses, fear of further failures is paralysing the normal bank-to-bank lending vital for keeping cash in circulation.
Doubts also remain about whether the raft of measures already announced—including historic coordinated interest rate cuts—will help.
My Take
Governments around the world are taking steps to restore investor confidence. When that confidence is restored I sell.
8:30 DJIA 8946 +500 We opened up 300 points and have been trading sideways to up now +500. Acting sluggish and still doubts about this rally. My take is we keep going up until they feel good about these moves. Lets hope the doubts persist for a while. What I am hearing is that they are not sure yet...that's good. Options expire this week lets see if the put buyers from the last 2 weeks are winners..I don't think so. We are going higher here. Should we reach 10200 this week I will reaccess my positions. If I move I will note it here. We are now 1100 points off the low now and there is still uncertainty I am not buying that shows respect too so I hold my positions that I bought last week and wait for better prices.
Gold 834 -25 is starting to realize that the world is not comming to an end at least for now. DZZ my Gold short now 32.35 + 1.20
Oil 80 +3 Bouncing I am looking to short this rally on oil by buying the DUG and the DTO will let you know.
I am looking to reshort NSC MCD and NKE the 3 shorts I covered last week
Money market rates eased on Monday after Europe's central banks said they would lend commercial banks as much U.S. dollar funding as they need.
In the latest joint bid to thaw frozen money markets the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank also scrapped their existing dollar auction systems and replaced them with a new fixed rate system.
"Counterparties in these operations will be able to borrow any amount they wish against the appropriate collateral in each jurisdiction," the Fed said in a st
"Central banks will continue to work together and are prepared to take whatever measures are necessary to provide sufficient liquidity in short-term funding markets." The Bank of Japan said it would also consider similar measures and the Fed said it would increase its currency swap lines with the ECB, SNB and BOE by an unspecified amount to fund the operations.
The moves were welcomed by traders and had an instant impact as three-month Libor dollar rates fell.
"I think they will be hugely helpful, to be honest and the market has a better feel today," said one London-based money market trader. "Given the fact that they are going to allot whatever you need it should bring levels down particularly at the short end."
The move follows top-level meetings over the weekend in Washington and Paris, where policymakers vowed to bring an end to the credit rout which is threatening to tip the global economy into recession.
After several high-profile bank collapses, fear of further failures is paralysing the normal bank-to-bank lending vital for keeping cash in circulation.
Doubts also remain about whether the raft of measures already announced—including historic coordinated interest rate cuts—will help.
My Take
Governments around the world are taking steps to restore investor confidence. When that confidence is restored I sell.
8:30 DJIA 8946 +500 We opened up 300 points and have been trading sideways to up now +500. Acting sluggish and still doubts about this rally. My take is we keep going up until they feel good about these moves. Lets hope the doubts persist for a while. What I am hearing is that they are not sure yet...that's good. Options expire this week lets see if the put buyers from the last 2 weeks are winners..I don't think so. We are going higher here. Should we reach 10200 this week I will reaccess my positions. If I move I will note it here. We are now 1100 points off the low now and there is still uncertainty I am not buying that shows respect too so I hold my positions that I bought last week and wait for better prices.
Gold 834 -25 is starting to realize that the world is not comming to an end at least for now. DZZ my Gold short now 32.35 + 1.20
Oil 80 +3 Bouncing I am looking to short this rally on oil by buying the DUG and the DTO will let you know.
I am looking to reshort NSC MCD and NKE the 3 shorts I covered last week
Friday, October 10, 2008
The Flight to Safety...Watch Gold
The two areas that investors are putting their money in this flight to safety is Gold and Treasury bonds. Where is the money comming from in this flight to safety. It is comming from equity. The same equity investors that were in a flight to growth just 12 months ago. You know the commodities and the world economic growth story. They now know that was a bad idea. What is funny about this game is that the flight to safety is just as bad a move today as the flight to growth was last year. The beat goes on.
The price action in Gold will tell you if the system is getting its act together.
The price action in Gold will tell you if the system is getting its act together.
The movie continues ...Very scary Isn't it
Nah ,Its just a movie remember? Lets have some fun with it OK
This is what I am reading from CNBC this AM:
Searching For a Market Bottom? Keep Looking
Topics:Stock MarketBy Jeff Cox, CNBC.com | 10 Oct 2008 | 09:06 AM ET Text Size For those hoping that the seven-day blowout on Wall Street may have created a market bottom, there are two words to contemplate: Not yet.
Over the past week the stock market has posted its biggest drop ever, tumbling more than 20 percent and triggering angst and despair among both investors and traders on the floor.
But most analysts watching the situation think market activity, by sheer volume if nothing else, is inadequate to declare that the worst has passed, though there are definite signs that it is coming.
"You really just want people to say, 'I can't take it anymore,' and I think we're getting to that position," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. "Selling begets selling, that's what happens, until it kind of washes out, until the last seller comes in and says, 'That's it.' Then there's kind of an eerie quiet."
But while hedge funds and industrial investors have been bailed out of positions, individual retail investors have still not reached the severe panic point.
"We're seeing volatility right now that's really starting to freak out the investor for sure," Ben Lichtenstein, president of Traders Audio, said on CNBC. "Once the investor, the normal, everyday-type investor starts to see his original investment start to decrease, that's where the fear-type selling could kick in."
Krosby said that despite Thursday's washout, in which stocks across the board lost about 7 percent of their value, volume was too thin. Total market volume was about 1.8 billion shares, and she would expect a number closer to 2.5 billion to 3 billion to see a true capitulation.
"You'd like to see more selling," Krosby said. "That's something that you look for, really, really having selling and you didn't have that yesterday and you didn't have that in many of the really strong down days."
"I think no one knows where the bottom is" and the market hasn't yet seen the kind of trading that indicates capitulation, BlackRock Vice Chairman Bob Doll told CNBC. "Often you see double, triple normal volume and we've just not seen that kind of capitulation yet."
What the Pros Say: Dow Below 7,500
2008 | 07:10 AM ET Text Size World stocks slumped to their lowest levels in five years on Friday. easures from the U.S., UK and other countries to fight the worst financial crisis in 80 years -- even this week's coordinated interest rate cuts -- have failed to calm credit, money and stock markets and quell investor fears.
European markets were down over 6 percent, following Asia and Wall Street's massive selloff. So when markets are tumbling, what do our experts suggest?
Dow May Break Through 7,500
The Dow's next support level is 7,500 points, says Ron Ianieri, chief markets strategist at the Options University, after the index plunged below 9,000 points Thursday. He tells CNBC it won't take too much for the Dow to get there.
Wall Street Preparing For Another Selloff
Stocks were poised for another day of big drops, with futures indicating a drop of more than 4 percent across the board as the crisis of confidence worsens.
Investors remained unconvinced by various measures taken around the world to prop up ailing financial companies.
"The market right now is deeply, desperately trying to find value, and until it finds that area we're not going to stabilize or contract or try to find that horizontal-type trading," Ben Lichtenstein, president of Traders Audio, told CNBC. "We're in a vertical market right now."
Dow component General Electric's [GE 19.01 --- UNCH (0) ] earnings report only managed to add to the misery, even though the results weren't on the surface cause for concern.
What Mikey's saying:
I am posting these commments so that you will have a frame of reference the next time we go into a top or bottom. In the past year I was short oil stocks I was buying an ETF that went up went oil stocks declined. Of course you all know what oil did. I started buying this ETF at $42 and over the course of the next 9 months it declined to 26 but at that time I could see that the economy was weakening and at some point it would cause oil demand to fall and therefore oil stocks to decline. The heard mentality was and always is to jump on the now and follow the hot story. It finally reached a peak in July when Isreal was going to attack Iran. Oil was at 148 it was said that the fundamentals of a slow down "didn't matter anymore". The last trade on oil this AM is $82. Things change and the obvious is usually wrong.
Today the Market is set to open at 8240 with the whole world runnung toward the exits. Very intense just as was the oil market in July when oil was at 148. I have said that my approches values untertainty well here it is maximun uncertainty. I think 3 months from now it will have been much better to have been a buyer that a
seller. Stay tuned
6:49AM DJIA 8326 -200 VIX hits 70 The market was down 675 at one pont. Not panic eh BS. The financials are starting to rally. Remember the FED said they can diredtly take an equity position in the banks I think they are startin to do that now. The financials will be the firt to bottom they will take their stand here. That story is the most cooked. That is where I want most of my money in this group. The XLF now 13.94 is up I will add on here now
Buyin XLF 13.93
Buying MS 9.95
Covering my NSC shorts covering my MCD short covering my NKE short
Gold Bugs put you fasten your seat belts your next.
7:13 DJIA -27 VIX Went positive for a short time Trying to bottom
7:23 DJIA 8505 - 70 Bush is going to speak I'll bet he says its going to take time.
7:50 DJIA 8337 -202 He spoke the amrket sold off . Don't worry hang in there gang. I see oil now at $80 and heading south thats a good thing. It looks like the tail end of the market ...oil related stocks getting nailed and the front end..financials showing relative strength.
Good News Dept: Commercial paper rates fall ..indicates that Fed medicine is starting to work. Gasoline futures 1.87 -15.8 Add about a dollar to this and you have retail prices. Gold back under 900. I can see the confidence starting to come in things and it looks like the system is showing signs of working.
9:04 DJIA 8201 -373 Big drag on the DJIA is oil stocks that is the tail end of the market. The last group to go in the market rotation. We are almost here gang.
Gold weaking now at 892 if we can see it below 840 that is a sign that this crisis is over. I like the action now
10:16 DJIA 8157 -417 Clearer picture emerging to me here. The oil stocks are the drag on this thing market internals are clearly improving here.
Buying UYG ..ETF double long financials @ 8.00
Looks like I will get a chance to buy AIG real cheap now below 2 but waiting
The selloff is ending just the tailenders are selling off we are almost there.
As oil stocks tank they will sneak the financials higher from here. Keep an eye out for that. I really like the market short term now
10:31 Gold down $30 Gold bugs the big dog is comming after you
I am loving the price of the UYG adding again @ 7.93
10:45 DJIA 8083 - 493 Gold -37.50 at 850 this market is getting ready to bottom DING DONG the witch is dead
10:57 I am seeing a Gold commercial on CNBC Gold now 838 down $ 47 we are gonna make it gang Oil 78.70 down $8.19
Buying more UYG 7.85 starting to load up We are going to make them pay for messing with us right. No flight to safety here we are comming after you guys
11:17 DJAI 8218 -369 Financials XLF UNCH on the day XOI oil stocks index 782 -72 see what is happening the financials are holding the market is DJIA becasue the oils are weak Stay with me here,...Don't worry eveything is going to be OK
NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Gold dropped more than 6 percent on Friday, surrendering early hefty gains to trade below $850 an ounce as a dollar rally, crude oil drop and a stock market sell-off triggered heavy profit-taking in the precious metal. The gold contract for December delivery was down $36.50 or 4.1 percent at $850 in after-hours screen trade on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:04 p.m. EDT (1804 GMT). It had hit a low of $829. Spot gold sank to $844.70 an ounce for a loss of 7.3 percent from Thursday's nominal close of $911.50
The U.S. dollar surged to a 15-month high against a major currencies on Friday as plunging stocks and persistent tight credit markets prompted investors to scramble for cash preferably in the world's reserve currency.
The dollar is making 15 month highs I'll bet you didn't know that one did you Gold Bugs. Let's see you are buying gold because you think the dollar is going to go down and it is making a 15 month high... What is wrong with this picture??
12:34 DJIA +100 NOW A 700 POINT TURN AROUND. They say they are expecting something to come out of the G7. I would bet nothing comes out of that meeting and we sell off. But don't worry its OK all part of the game
I want to repeat that don't expect anything to come out of the G7 meeting and expect a sellof because of it but buy that selloff
This is what I am reading from CNBC this AM:
Searching For a Market Bottom? Keep Looking
Topics:Stock MarketBy Jeff Cox, CNBC.com | 10 Oct 2008 | 09:06 AM ET Text Size For those hoping that the seven-day blowout on Wall Street may have created a market bottom, there are two words to contemplate: Not yet.
Over the past week the stock market has posted its biggest drop ever, tumbling more than 20 percent and triggering angst and despair among both investors and traders on the floor.
But most analysts watching the situation think market activity, by sheer volume if nothing else, is inadequate to declare that the worst has passed, though there are definite signs that it is coming.
"You really just want people to say, 'I can't take it anymore,' and I think we're getting to that position," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. "Selling begets selling, that's what happens, until it kind of washes out, until the last seller comes in and says, 'That's it.' Then there's kind of an eerie quiet."
But while hedge funds and industrial investors have been bailed out of positions, individual retail investors have still not reached the severe panic point.
"We're seeing volatility right now that's really starting to freak out the investor for sure," Ben Lichtenstein, president of Traders Audio, said on CNBC. "Once the investor, the normal, everyday-type investor starts to see his original investment start to decrease, that's where the fear-type selling could kick in."
Krosby said that despite Thursday's washout, in which stocks across the board lost about 7 percent of their value, volume was too thin. Total market volume was about 1.8 billion shares, and she would expect a number closer to 2.5 billion to 3 billion to see a true capitulation.
"You'd like to see more selling," Krosby said. "That's something that you look for, really, really having selling and you didn't have that yesterday and you didn't have that in many of the really strong down days."
"I think no one knows where the bottom is" and the market hasn't yet seen the kind of trading that indicates capitulation, BlackRock Vice Chairman Bob Doll told CNBC. "Often you see double, triple normal volume and we've just not seen that kind of capitulation yet."
What the Pros Say: Dow Below 7,500
2008 | 07:10 AM ET Text Size World stocks slumped to their lowest levels in five years on Friday. easures from the U.S., UK and other countries to fight the worst financial crisis in 80 years -- even this week's coordinated interest rate cuts -- have failed to calm credit, money and stock markets and quell investor fears.
European markets were down over 6 percent, following Asia and Wall Street's massive selloff. So when markets are tumbling, what do our experts suggest?
Dow May Break Through 7,500
The Dow's next support level is 7,500 points, says Ron Ianieri, chief markets strategist at the Options University, after the index plunged below 9,000 points Thursday. He tells CNBC it won't take too much for the Dow to get there.
Wall Street Preparing For Another Selloff
Stocks were poised for another day of big drops, with futures indicating a drop of more than 4 percent across the board as the crisis of confidence worsens.
Investors remained unconvinced by various measures taken around the world to prop up ailing financial companies.
"The market right now is deeply, desperately trying to find value, and until it finds that area we're not going to stabilize or contract or try to find that horizontal-type trading," Ben Lichtenstein, president of Traders Audio, told CNBC. "We're in a vertical market right now."
Dow component General Electric's [GE 19.01 --- UNCH (0) ] earnings report only managed to add to the misery, even though the results weren't on the surface cause for concern.
What Mikey's saying:
I am posting these commments so that you will have a frame of reference the next time we go into a top or bottom. In the past year I was short oil stocks I was buying an ETF that went up went oil stocks declined. Of course you all know what oil did. I started buying this ETF at $42 and over the course of the next 9 months it declined to 26 but at that time I could see that the economy was weakening and at some point it would cause oil demand to fall and therefore oil stocks to decline. The heard mentality was and always is to jump on the now and follow the hot story. It finally reached a peak in July when Isreal was going to attack Iran. Oil was at 148 it was said that the fundamentals of a slow down "didn't matter anymore". The last trade on oil this AM is $82. Things change and the obvious is usually wrong.
Today the Market is set to open at 8240 with the whole world runnung toward the exits. Very intense just as was the oil market in July when oil was at 148. I have said that my approches values untertainty well here it is maximun uncertainty. I think 3 months from now it will have been much better to have been a buyer that a
seller. Stay tuned
6:49AM DJIA 8326 -200 VIX hits 70 The market was down 675 at one pont. Not panic eh BS. The financials are starting to rally. Remember the FED said they can diredtly take an equity position in the banks I think they are startin to do that now. The financials will be the firt to bottom they will take their stand here. That story is the most cooked. That is where I want most of my money in this group. The XLF now 13.94 is up I will add on here now
Buyin XLF 13.93
Buying MS 9.95
Covering my NSC shorts covering my MCD short covering my NKE short
Gold Bugs put you fasten your seat belts your next.
7:13 DJIA -27 VIX Went positive for a short time Trying to bottom
7:23 DJIA 8505 - 70 Bush is going to speak I'll bet he says its going to take time.
7:50 DJIA 8337 -202 He spoke the amrket sold off . Don't worry hang in there gang. I see oil now at $80 and heading south thats a good thing. It looks like the tail end of the market ...oil related stocks getting nailed and the front end..financials showing relative strength.
Good News Dept: Commercial paper rates fall ..indicates that Fed medicine is starting to work. Gasoline futures 1.87 -15.8 Add about a dollar to this and you have retail prices. Gold back under 900. I can see the confidence starting to come in things and it looks like the system is showing signs of working.
9:04 DJIA 8201 -373 Big drag on the DJIA is oil stocks that is the tail end of the market. The last group to go in the market rotation. We are almost here gang.
Gold weaking now at 892 if we can see it below 840 that is a sign that this crisis is over. I like the action now
10:16 DJIA 8157 -417 Clearer picture emerging to me here. The oil stocks are the drag on this thing market internals are clearly improving here.
Buying UYG ..ETF double long financials @ 8.00
Looks like I will get a chance to buy AIG real cheap now below 2 but waiting
The selloff is ending just the tailenders are selling off we are almost there.
As oil stocks tank they will sneak the financials higher from here. Keep an eye out for that. I really like the market short term now
10:31 Gold down $30 Gold bugs the big dog is comming after you
I am loving the price of the UYG adding again @ 7.93
10:45 DJIA 8083 - 493 Gold -37.50 at 850 this market is getting ready to bottom DING DONG the witch is dead
10:57 I am seeing a Gold commercial on CNBC Gold now 838 down $ 47 we are gonna make it gang Oil 78.70 down $8.19
Buying more UYG 7.85 starting to load up We are going to make them pay for messing with us right. No flight to safety here we are comming after you guys
11:17 DJAI 8218 -369 Financials XLF UNCH on the day XOI oil stocks index 782 -72 see what is happening the financials are holding the market is DJIA becasue the oils are weak Stay with me here,...Don't worry eveything is going to be OK
NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Gold dropped more than 6 percent on Friday, surrendering early hefty gains to trade below $850 an ounce as a dollar rally, crude oil drop and a stock market sell-off triggered heavy profit-taking in the precious metal. The gold contract for December delivery was down $36.50 or 4.1 percent at $850 in after-hours screen trade on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:04 p.m. EDT (1804 GMT). It had hit a low of $829. Spot gold sank to $844.70 an ounce for a loss of 7.3 percent from Thursday's nominal close of $911.50
The U.S. dollar surged to a 15-month high against a major currencies on Friday as plunging stocks and persistent tight credit markets prompted investors to scramble for cash preferably in the world's reserve currency.
The dollar is making 15 month highs I'll bet you didn't know that one did you Gold Bugs. Let's see you are buying gold because you think the dollar is going to go down and it is making a 15 month high... What is wrong with this picture??
12:34 DJIA +100 NOW A 700 POINT TURN AROUND. They say they are expecting something to come out of the G7. I would bet nothing comes out of that meeting and we sell off. But don't worry its OK all part of the game
I want to repeat that don't expect anything to come out of the G7 meeting and expect a sellof because of it but buy that selloff
Thursday, October 9, 2008
They are pulling out all the stops now.
12:18 8881 down 379 VIX 60.14
Margin calls kicking in now forced selling now.
Adding 200 SSO @ 32.15
Adding to GM 5.49
Closing down 500 buying the close see ya tomarrow
Margin calls kicking in now forced selling now.
Adding 200 SSO @ 32.15
Adding to GM 5.49
Closing down 500 buying the close see ya tomarrow
Bush..Paulson..."it's going to take a long time"
7:22 AM DJIA 9329 VIX 53.99
Why are they saying this? It is not very encouraging is it? You would think that they would be more positive more forceful but it seems that the message is that this malise is going to last a long time. You know deal with it we are screwed. Woe is me yada, yada, yada. All that is missing is to have a picture of the Titanic hanging on the wall behind the podium, or how about a picture of the Hindenburg going up in flames and have the press conference held at the blue moon cafe. Very strange don't you think?
Well Mikey says a 3000 point rally is right around the corner. That ought to perk you up. This process of rally failure is going to lead to a big rally ..Deal with that Bush and Paulson.
By the way the no short rule is lifted for the financials today ...Nice because the financial index is making a new low. OK shorts now you can short at new lows. It looks to me that this thing is starting to stablize now. I expect rally attempts followed by failures for about a week. I am guessing that the rally is setting up for later next week. If we can keep failing and Bush and Paulson can keep pouring cold water on this thing for another week then the stage is set for the launch. Better days are dead ahead.
On the XLF I will add to my first buy of 18.60 when Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citibanks approach their last lows pre bailout. I may be able to get that in the 12 area. Insurance and banking stocks
7:48 AM DJAI 9186 VIX 55.49
CNBC says "GM shares plumeting bring the year 1929 into focus" Now there is some good news to think about." They are there when you need them aren't they. The kind folks at CNBC just presenting the unbiased news. I am keeping this running account so you can look back at them after the rally and understand how this thing is done.
We are starting to see word like plunge pop up now all the words you hear at the bottom
8:08 AM DJIA 9117 VIX 56.60 The message is that the "Paulson Plan is not working.
CNBC Mallisa Francis: "What is the mood on the floor (NYSE) now Dillon?
Dillon Radigan: "The reality is not the the American people but the investment community the largest investor and the smallest investors suffered a massive breach of confidence. What you are seeing right now is the result of the breach of confidence and when you get good news you are not seeing a willingness to assume risk until people feel that have had enough time to see how the financial system will be restuctued and how bad the problem actually is. The message is it is going to take time. That's the central message that it is bad and in the near term it is not going to improve. The improvement is months away. I hear the Fed is out of bullets. I say BS They have a bazooka not a peashooter aimed at the shorts and the sellers. When the time is right, and its close, they will fire.
Don't listen to them stick with Mikey
Why are they saying this? It is not very encouraging is it? You would think that they would be more positive more forceful but it seems that the message is that this malise is going to last a long time. You know deal with it we are screwed. Woe is me yada, yada, yada. All that is missing is to have a picture of the Titanic hanging on the wall behind the podium, or how about a picture of the Hindenburg going up in flames and have the press conference held at the blue moon cafe. Very strange don't you think?
Well Mikey says a 3000 point rally is right around the corner. That ought to perk you up. This process of rally failure is going to lead to a big rally ..Deal with that Bush and Paulson.
By the way the no short rule is lifted for the financials today ...Nice because the financial index is making a new low. OK shorts now you can short at new lows. It looks to me that this thing is starting to stablize now. I expect rally attempts followed by failures for about a week. I am guessing that the rally is setting up for later next week. If we can keep failing and Bush and Paulson can keep pouring cold water on this thing for another week then the stage is set for the launch. Better days are dead ahead.
On the XLF I will add to my first buy of 18.60 when Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citibanks approach their last lows pre bailout. I may be able to get that in the 12 area. Insurance and banking stocks
7:48 AM DJAI 9186 VIX 55.49
CNBC says "GM shares plumeting bring the year 1929 into focus" Now there is some good news to think about." They are there when you need them aren't they. The kind folks at CNBC just presenting the unbiased news. I am keeping this running account so you can look back at them after the rally and understand how this thing is done.
We are starting to see word like plunge pop up now all the words you hear at the bottom
8:08 AM DJIA 9117 VIX 56.60 The message is that the "Paulson Plan is not working.
CNBC Mallisa Francis: "What is the mood on the floor (NYSE) now Dillon?
Dillon Radigan: "The reality is not the the American people but the investment community the largest investor and the smallest investors suffered a massive breach of confidence. What you are seeing right now is the result of the breach of confidence and when you get good news you are not seeing a willingness to assume risk until people feel that have had enough time to see how the financial system will be restuctued and how bad the problem actually is. The message is it is going to take time. That's the central message that it is bad and in the near term it is not going to improve. The improvement is months away. I hear the Fed is out of bullets. I say BS They have a bazooka not a peashooter aimed at the shorts and the sellers. When the time is right, and its close, they will fire.
Don't listen to them stick with Mikey
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Market rally dead ahead Market goes above 12000
You heard it here first remember I tell it like it is. I am thinking we could see 12500 in the next 2 to 3 months that is a 3000 point rally.
11:33 DJIA 9559 +111 Sneaky rally will this one go ...who knows but one of them will
12:55 Another failure market down 144 into the close that will teach you bulls not to chase a rally...
11:33 DJIA 9559 +111 Sneaky rally will this one go ...who knows but one of them will
12:55 Another failure market down 144 into the close that will teach you bulls not to chase a rally...
Gold 900 is going to crash!!!!!!!!!
I know I have said this before in my blog but I will say it again Sell your Gold get out of the way its going to crash.
Interest rates don't matter...Oh Really!!!!!
The talk is that lower interest rates are not going to help. That's interesting because on the way down everytime the rates were cut the market rallied and it did matter. Remember when we were going into the top and they were raising interest rates and they said higher rates didn't matter because of the Global economic growth story.
Well here we are and we have a global economic meltdown and the interest rates have been cut for a year and it doesn't matter. Me thinks it does we'll see.
Alcoa (AA) announced bad earnings today ...who cares the stock is cheap as hell Buying 1/4 at 15
Well here we are and we have a global economic meltdown and the interest rates have been cut for a year and it doesn't matter. Me thinks it does we'll see.
Alcoa (AA) announced bad earnings today ...who cares the stock is cheap as hell Buying 1/4 at 15
Central banks around the world Wednesday cut interest rates in a coordinated move amid mounting losses on global stock markets, as the credit crunch continued to seize up lending
The Federal Reserve lowered its federal funds rate a half a point to 1.50 percent. It also lowered its discount rate by half a point. The Fed, whose decision was unanimous, last cut rates a quarter point in April.
The markets are a scary place now after the cut was announced in premarket the DJIA futures were down as much as 300 points giving you the impression that nothiing can be done to stop the decline. The Fed seems to be running out of bullets. Gold was up $35 early. We then rally to up 150 at 10:00 AM and now at 10:30 are negative. The traders still remember yesterday when we rallied up early in the AM and then sold off to close down 500. That I believe was a set up rally yesterday that will produce a straight up move possibly today. But my intent is be disciplined and add on when the opportunity presents itself. These prices are being created by panic selling and will be good prices at some point down the road.
The no short sale rule will belifted for the financials. I dont think that ther will be much shorting going on at these levels but when the financials start to rally they the shorts will come in and they will pay for that creating a multiplier affect on the upside when they are forced to cover. I remain more bullish than ever. I like these prices here. As I have said I am placing a bet that the system will not fail these bet always work...at least until now.
Added to SSO at 36.80 3rd buy
Added to UYM 26.76 second buy
8:32 DJIA 9351 -92.23 VIX hit 58 again this AM The market has more moves than Michael Jordon. The traders at this point cannot trust a move in any direction but I if we rally they will sell into it. That's good for the longs we need selling into the rally to lift this thing off. This is a process of getting the traders on the wrong side of the trade. Every bottom has numerous false rallies before it runs. They need give traders the impression that the rally will fail before it goes. That in my opinion is what is happening now.
Oil starting to pick up steam on the downside now $86. This is going to 40 brfore it is all over. The airline stocks are selling off and they are starting to come into a buy zone I like Delta (DAL) 5.61 the best Will start buying here 1/4
The Federal Reserve lowered its federal funds rate a half a point to 1.50 percent. It also lowered its discount rate by half a point. The Fed, whose decision was unanimous, last cut rates a quarter point in April.
The markets are a scary place now after the cut was announced in premarket the DJIA futures were down as much as 300 points giving you the impression that nothiing can be done to stop the decline. The Fed seems to be running out of bullets. Gold was up $35 early. We then rally to up 150 at 10:00 AM and now at 10:30 are negative. The traders still remember yesterday when we rallied up early in the AM and then sold off to close down 500. That I believe was a set up rally yesterday that will produce a straight up move possibly today. But my intent is be disciplined and add on when the opportunity presents itself. These prices are being created by panic selling and will be good prices at some point down the road.
The no short sale rule will belifted for the financials. I dont think that ther will be much shorting going on at these levels but when the financials start to rally they the shorts will come in and they will pay for that creating a multiplier affect on the upside when they are forced to cover. I remain more bullish than ever. I like these prices here. As I have said I am placing a bet that the system will not fail these bet always work...at least until now.
Added to SSO at 36.80 3rd buy
Added to UYM 26.76 second buy
8:32 DJIA 9351 -92.23 VIX hit 58 again this AM The market has more moves than Michael Jordon. The traders at this point cannot trust a move in any direction but I if we rally they will sell into it. That's good for the longs we need selling into the rally to lift this thing off. This is a process of getting the traders on the wrong side of the trade. Every bottom has numerous false rallies before it runs. They need give traders the impression that the rally will fail before it goes. That in my opinion is what is happening now.
Oil starting to pick up steam on the downside now $86. This is going to 40 brfore it is all over. The airline stocks are selling off and they are starting to come into a buy zone I like Delta (DAL) 5.61 the best Will start buying here 1/4
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Global Credit Crisis makes front page
Take a look at the front page of the San Diego Union today. A picture of the world and below that a picture of traders glued to a falling stock market and Headlines saying Expanding credit crisis has gone truly global. The sub headline reads More markets slip:investors fear a worldwide recession. Makes you want to play it safe doesn't it. Just like the experts say be safe with your money be very careful now. Jim Cramer says get out if you need the money in the next 5 years.
These "experts" and financial folks have been telling you for the last 3 years don't worry invest for the long term and now after you lose 30% you are suppose to be safe. What is wrong with this picture. I have been short or out of this thing until the last few weeks. I am beginning the process of buying cheap assets. I don't know when I will make money that is unknowable but I do expect to make money.
The time to invest is now not everything but start the process now. The market looked like it reversed yesterday and is selling off today. The situation looks hopeless now it is out of control even the FED is helpless.This picture can look hopeless for weeks to come but these are good prices and the news at some point will offer hope.
The 700 billion bailout was passed and it will make a big difference. The market and the experts are trying to tell you otherwise now. What is very interesting is that the Treasury is going to auction off alot of debt in the next few weeks and guess what "investors are going to gobble the bonds up because....they want to be safe. Funny how that works when you want to sell bond trash a few banks Globally and drive panic depositors into your Bond sale under the guise of safety. That my friends is what is happening.
The bottom line is I don't want to be safe and I would not buy those bonds with your money. Why because at some point in the future when the sun comes out, and it will come out, the interest rates will rise and every investor that bought those bonds with a 3% yield will say "what was I thinking". Why did I sell my stock and buy those bonds. Well you will know if you SAVE TODAY'S FRONT PAGE OF THE UNION TRIBUNE.
What I am telling you here is that Lehman Bros was a designed event it did not have to happen they could have saved this company like they did Bear Stearns. I am also saying that Washington Mutial seizure was a staged event by the Fed and JP Morgan..a major shareholder of the Federal Reserve Bank. These and other siezures were created to dive money into the bond market. To drive interest rates lower so the Treasury, certain large banks could buy bank deposits for pennies on the dollar and sell debt cheaply to kick start the next recovery. They stole these banks and in the process staged a financial panic.
It appears to the outsider that this situations is out of control as the article suggest on the front page. It is not out of control it is fully under control. It is proceeding according to the plan and it will be very successful.
If you look at the larger picture it all makes sense. Save this blog and read it later because I know now that it will not make sense to you
As I have said before don't bet against this "bailout" not working that would be a big mistake. I tell it like it is!
The beat goes on......MIkey
Added to MS buy at 18.25 1/4 position today what a gift.
These "experts" and financial folks have been telling you for the last 3 years don't worry invest for the long term and now after you lose 30% you are suppose to be safe. What is wrong with this picture. I have been short or out of this thing until the last few weeks. I am beginning the process of buying cheap assets. I don't know when I will make money that is unknowable but I do expect to make money.
The time to invest is now not everything but start the process now. The market looked like it reversed yesterday and is selling off today. The situation looks hopeless now it is out of control even the FED is helpless.This picture can look hopeless for weeks to come but these are good prices and the news at some point will offer hope.
The 700 billion bailout was passed and it will make a big difference. The market and the experts are trying to tell you otherwise now. What is very interesting is that the Treasury is going to auction off alot of debt in the next few weeks and guess what "investors are going to gobble the bonds up because....they want to be safe. Funny how that works when you want to sell bond trash a few banks Globally and drive panic depositors into your Bond sale under the guise of safety. That my friends is what is happening.
The bottom line is I don't want to be safe and I would not buy those bonds with your money. Why because at some point in the future when the sun comes out, and it will come out, the interest rates will rise and every investor that bought those bonds with a 3% yield will say "what was I thinking". Why did I sell my stock and buy those bonds. Well you will know if you SAVE TODAY'S FRONT PAGE OF THE UNION TRIBUNE.
What I am telling you here is that Lehman Bros was a designed event it did not have to happen they could have saved this company like they did Bear Stearns. I am also saying that Washington Mutial seizure was a staged event by the Fed and JP Morgan..a major shareholder of the Federal Reserve Bank. These and other siezures were created to dive money into the bond market. To drive interest rates lower so the Treasury, certain large banks could buy bank deposits for pennies on the dollar and sell debt cheaply to kick start the next recovery. They stole these banks and in the process staged a financial panic.
It appears to the outsider that this situations is out of control as the article suggest on the front page. It is not out of control it is fully under control. It is proceeding according to the plan and it will be very successful.
If you look at the larger picture it all makes sense. Save this blog and read it later because I know now that it will not make sense to you
As I have said before don't bet against this "bailout" not working that would be a big mistake. I tell it like it is!
The beat goes on......MIkey
Added to MS buy at 18.25 1/4 position today what a gift.
Short sales
The short sale is where the trader sells stock he does not own and that stock hopefully declines and then he buys it at a lower price. In other words, he sells high and buys lower. I mentioned to you that every market has a story and when that story has accomplished its purpose the investors are left hold the bag. Today I am putting on several short sales on stocks that were yesterdays story but have not yet had the decline they should have.
NSC Norfolk Southern 56.93 Short Sale(ss) 1/4 position
MCD Mcdonalds 56.70 (ss)1/4 position
NKE Nike 59.82 (ss) 1/4 position
I expect each to return to their 2003 price levels. They still have good earnings but in the end should join their fallen brothers.
I am not changing my position on the market these stocks are still up and should join the party.
NSC Norfolk Southern 56.93 Short Sale(ss) 1/4 position
MCD Mcdonalds 56.70 (ss)1/4 position
NKE Nike 59.82 (ss) 1/4 position
I expect each to return to their 2003 price levels. They still have good earnings but in the end should join their fallen brothers.
I am not changing my position on the market these stocks are still up and should join the party.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Get ready for the Shock and AWE of the 700 billion bailout and the FED intervention
The Fed can expand the amount of liquidity into the market almost infinitely. The Fed will auciton off 450 billion into the market in a come and get it rate. In other words, the Fed is a bottomless pit of capital.
The bailout allows the treasury to use a portion of the 700 billion to make direct equity injections into companies. That's right a portion of 700 billion can go into equities. I think I'll bet on those guys. I wouldn't want to call a 700 billion bet even with a straight flush. Think about that little bit of information before you sell your stocks.
I'm putting my money on with the 700 billion.
The bailout allows the treasury to use a portion of the 700 billion to make direct equity injections into companies. That's right a portion of 700 billion can go into equities. I think I'll bet on those guys. I wouldn't want to call a 700 billion bet even with a straight flush. Think about that little bit of information before you sell your stocks.
I'm putting my money on with the 700 billion.
What you will hear now..Investing for uncertain times
Remember we love uncertainty but those good analysts and experts don't so expect them now to tell you to sell the rally and go into the tuck position.
Am I going to do that NAH, what the hell, but see how many times you hear the word uncertainty now and report back to me. By the way as this crisis unfolds watch it as you would a movie and expect a happy ending OK? Don't get all stressed out relax and enjoy, its just a movie. Why because Mikey told you. Have a great day ..The beat goes on.
Am I going to do that NAH, what the hell, but see how many times you hear the word uncertainty now and report back to me. By the way as this crisis unfolds watch it as you would a movie and expect a happy ending OK? Don't get all stressed out relax and enjoy, its just a movie. Why because Mikey told you. Have a great day ..The beat goes on.
Selling into this weak opening is a mistake
Global stock markets plummeted Monday as concerns about the widening fallout from the credit crisis fueled fears about a world-wide recession. This AM the world econpmic meltdown takes center stage. The US market are opening dowm 200 points
We are headed for a sharply lower open. The fear of contagion is spreading on a daily basis, and that's why we are lower," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York.
He added that investors doubted that there would be immediate benefits from the $700 billion U.S. financial sector rescue plan passed by Congress Friday as questions about how it will be.
The operatve word here is that he doubted that there would be any immediate benefits to the rescue plan.Well I am betting that there will be.
Gold this AM is up $40 this AM to 873 still 125 off of its high in March. This move in Gold is a dead cat bouce. It is my belief that Gold goes to $450 when the dust settles.
The U.S. dollar jumped to a 13-month high against the euro Monday, while the yen rallied across the board as fears over bank problems in Europe deepened and investors cut risk exposure.
The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.5 percent to 81.305. It earlier rose to 81.436, a 13-month high. The dollar is making a 13 month high sports fans not widely reported in the press. Let see Gold relative to the dollar should be falling. The buyers here are in for a surprise.
The VIX index ..see yesterday's blog on the VIX is at 51.71 if this was a speeometer the needle would be burried. Time to buy not sell time to sell Gold and not buy.
With the dollar making a 13 month high I am adding to my position on the DZZ at 29.81this AM will add more if this continues.
7:47 DJIA 9813 -506 VIX now at 56 up down volume to up volume 30 to 1 approaching crash levels.
The financials XLF showing strength verses the economic growth stocks that group has already been nailed. The commodity group is heading for the basement in a hurry,. Gold stocks getting hit today also Gold will be the next commodity to get nailed.
I love the financials here particularly MS at this price of 21 but it is too close to my last buy to add on here same with the XLF at 17.79 again too close to add on from my last buy.
Investing is an exercise in disipline not an attempt to pick tops or bottoms the more disiplined you are in these times the better your results. I trust this approach. What I am seeing today is panic and not displine you can use this to your advantage if you remain calm.
Federal Natl Mtg after a selloff to .38 and a rally to 2.75 is pulling back to near $1. Now at $1.08 will start my 1/4 buy at .90 if it gets there.
10:08 AM DJIA now down 521 I think they will call this Black Monday am waiting before I add on VIX at 53.51 record high hit today.
10:49 AM These technical conditions existed in 1984, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1998 and 200. In each case within one year you had a signifigant rally. The hedge funds are being forced to the sidelines. If you buy today you will be happy, when I don't know remember that is uncertain. We trust the law of uncertainty. What you don't do is load up to heavy at any one price or buy options or use margin. This kind of situation has always produced a major tradeable rally unless its game over and as I said last week I'll bet against that everytime.
I don't think we reverse today their game plan has been to do that after the market closes. We will probably sell off into the close. Think timewise the low is close. Will buy SSO on close again now crusing by at 39 bought at 47 and 43 this would be my third buy.
These technical conditions existed in 1984, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002. In each case within one year you had a signifigant rally. The hedge funds are being forced to the sidelines. If you buy today you will be happy when I don't know remember that is uncertain. We trust the law of uncertainty. What you don't do is load up to heavy at any one price or buy options or use margin. This kind of situation has always produced a major tradeable rally unless its game over and as I said last week I'll bet against that everytime.
11:58 DJIA 9619 -709 Is the world comming to an end Nah, I like the financials and would short Gold now. CNBC has breaking news DJIA down more than 700 ...That's news?
Oh well just part of the game. Will buy the close see ya then.
12:49 DJIA 9928 Rallying now -396 The shorts are saying OH no Mr. Bill. Geez maybe some of that 700 billion ...remember that.. is finding its way into the markets.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil dropped more than 6 percent to below $88 a barrel on Monday as a global market rout churned concerns that faltering fuel demand could slow further.
A reminder that things change in a hurry remember July 11th whenIsreal was going to attack Iran. Oil was 148 and there wasn't enough oil in the world ...read this:
U.S. stocks tumbled 6 percent to the lowest level in nearly five years as part of an international sell-off on fears the global economy was heading into recession.
U.S. crude settled down $6.07 at $87.81 a barrel after hitting an eight-month low of $87.56. London Brent crude fell $6.57 to settle at $83.68 a barrel.
Analysts are watching oil demand from China -- which helped fuel a 6-year rally in commodities -- for signs the crisis is hitting consumption.
The world's No. 2 consumer will not import gasoline for the second straight month and instead export the fuel due to heavy domestic stockpiles and a dip in demand.
Wow that was quick!!! Expect it to go to 45 - 50 a barrell and 2 buck gas.
Close...We close down a measley 365 points after being down 750 well OK is was down but hey we are still alive and most of my positions are hanging in there. It's great to be alive. By the way athe experts and analysts are very conservative now.
ALLLLLRIGHTY THEN> Lets buy here and wait until they get back in OK
Mikey.....The beat goes on...
We are headed for a sharply lower open. The fear of contagion is spreading on a daily basis, and that's why we are lower," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York.
He added that investors doubted that there would be immediate benefits from the $700 billion U.S. financial sector rescue plan passed by Congress Friday as questions about how it will be.
The operatve word here is that he doubted that there would be any immediate benefits to the rescue plan.Well I am betting that there will be.
Gold this AM is up $40 this AM to 873 still 125 off of its high in March. This move in Gold is a dead cat bouce. It is my belief that Gold goes to $450 when the dust settles.
The U.S. dollar jumped to a 13-month high against the euro Monday, while the yen rallied across the board as fears over bank problems in Europe deepened and investors cut risk exposure.
The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.5 percent to 81.305. It earlier rose to 81.436, a 13-month high. The dollar is making a 13 month high sports fans not widely reported in the press. Let see Gold relative to the dollar should be falling. The buyers here are in for a surprise.
The VIX index ..see yesterday's blog on the VIX is at 51.71 if this was a speeometer the needle would be burried. Time to buy not sell time to sell Gold and not buy.
With the dollar making a 13 month high I am adding to my position on the DZZ at 29.81this AM will add more if this continues.
7:47 DJIA 9813 -506 VIX now at 56 up down volume to up volume 30 to 1 approaching crash levels.
The financials XLF showing strength verses the economic growth stocks that group has already been nailed. The commodity group is heading for the basement in a hurry,. Gold stocks getting hit today also Gold will be the next commodity to get nailed.
I love the financials here particularly MS at this price of 21 but it is too close to my last buy to add on here same with the XLF at 17.79 again too close to add on from my last buy.
Investing is an exercise in disipline not an attempt to pick tops or bottoms the more disiplined you are in these times the better your results. I trust this approach. What I am seeing today is panic and not displine you can use this to your advantage if you remain calm.
Federal Natl Mtg after a selloff to .38 and a rally to 2.75 is pulling back to near $1. Now at $1.08 will start my 1/4 buy at .90 if it gets there.
10:08 AM DJIA now down 521 I think they will call this Black Monday am waiting before I add on VIX at 53.51 record high hit today.
10:49 AM These technical conditions existed in 1984, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1998 and 200. In each case within one year you had a signifigant rally. The hedge funds are being forced to the sidelines. If you buy today you will be happy, when I don't know remember that is uncertain. We trust the law of uncertainty. What you don't do is load up to heavy at any one price or buy options or use margin. This kind of situation has always produced a major tradeable rally unless its game over and as I said last week I'll bet against that everytime.
I don't think we reverse today their game plan has been to do that after the market closes. We will probably sell off into the close. Think timewise the low is close. Will buy SSO on close again now crusing by at 39 bought at 47 and 43 this would be my third buy.
These technical conditions existed in 1984, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002. In each case within one year you had a signifigant rally. The hedge funds are being forced to the sidelines. If you buy today you will be happy when I don't know remember that is uncertain. We trust the law of uncertainty. What you don't do is load up to heavy at any one price or buy options or use margin. This kind of situation has always produced a major tradeable rally unless its game over and as I said last week I'll bet against that everytime.
11:58 DJIA 9619 -709 Is the world comming to an end Nah, I like the financials and would short Gold now. CNBC has breaking news DJIA down more than 700 ...That's news?
Oh well just part of the game. Will buy the close see ya then.
12:49 DJIA 9928 Rallying now -396 The shorts are saying OH no Mr. Bill. Geez maybe some of that 700 billion ...remember that.. is finding its way into the markets.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil dropped more than 6 percent to below $88 a barrel on Monday as a global market rout churned concerns that faltering fuel demand could slow further.
A reminder that things change in a hurry remember July 11th whenIsreal was going to attack Iran. Oil was 148 and there wasn't enough oil in the world ...read this:
U.S. stocks tumbled 6 percent to the lowest level in nearly five years as part of an international sell-off on fears the global economy was heading into recession.
U.S. crude settled down $6.07 at $87.81 a barrel after hitting an eight-month low of $87.56. London Brent crude fell $6.57 to settle at $83.68 a barrel.
Analysts are watching oil demand from China -- which helped fuel a 6-year rally in commodities -- for signs the crisis is hitting consumption.
The world's No. 2 consumer will not import gasoline for the second straight month and instead export the fuel due to heavy domestic stockpiles and a dip in demand.
Wow that was quick!!! Expect it to go to 45 - 50 a barrell and 2 buck gas.
Close...We close down a measley 365 points after being down 750 well OK is was down but hey we are still alive and most of my positions are hanging in there. It's great to be alive. By the way athe experts and analysts are very conservative now.
ALLLLLRIGHTY THEN> Lets buy here and wait until they get back in OK
Mikey.....The beat goes on...
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