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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

This is recession week.

The country's economic picture has darkened further as Americans hunkered down heading into the holidays, forcing retailers to ring up fewer sales and factories to cut back on production.

The Federal Reserve's new snapshot of business conditions nationwide, released Wednesday, suggested the economy was sinking deeper into recession.

"Economic activity weakened across all Federal Reserve districts," the report concluded.

The Fed didn't use the word "recession," but just two days earlier the National Bureau of Economic Research declared what many Americans already knew in their bones: that the country had been suffering through one since last December.

Where I think we are now: The Financials are gaining relative strength as are the reatailers and are losing the focus as the disaster area. Now the focus has changed to the economically sensative stocks. The commodity and cyclicals. This is good stuff it means that the first fphase of the market decline has been arrested. The next medicine will be directed toward the economy. You can get a hint of that by reading the previous post.
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