Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Pulling back on Bad news

The news from CNBC.com this AM ...Very Gloomy
Now that the US consumer has finally hit the wall, there’s growing speculation the Federal Reserve will push its interest rate pedal to the floor.

September’s 1.2 percent decline in retail sales and downward revisions in the two previous months virtually assure the first quarterly decline in consumer spending in 17 years, something economists have been worrying about for some time when it appears the government’s fiscal stimulus package was having limited effect.
I've said since the summer that a ‘dark period’ of economic data lie ahead,” ”Miller & Tabak’s chief bond market analyst Tony Crescenzi told clients in a note.

“The sad reality is that it will take quite a long period for the consumer sector to recharge and that will in turn maintain pressure on financials,” says Hastings. “The ripple effects are already being felt in technology sector and will soon affect industrials."
From the Fed Beige book:
Economic activity weakened across the United States in September as businesses rethought capital investments, consumers curtailed spending and the general outlook darkened, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.

"Economic activity weakened in September across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts,'' the Fed said in its Beige Book report on the state of the economy through Oct. 6
To This I say DAH!!!!

6:44 DJIA 9094 -216 VIX 59.51 GOLD 838.0 -.60 OIL 76.08 -2.62
Like these prices buying back 1/4 SSO 33.15 1/4 UYG 11.60 1/4 UYM 23.63
Airlines sneaking up adding to my DAL 7.71

7:29 DJIA 9018 -288 VIX 59.51 GOLD 849 +10 -.60 OIL 75.52 -3.02
The economic news here is very gloomy, started my buy backs from yesterdays sales
will give it room and not add to quickly
Looking to buy the DIG 31.56...oil long near prior lows of 22

9:55 DJIA 8943 -367 Bernanke speaking to Economic club a calming speech.

11:27 DJIA 8817 -499 VIX 64.63 Gold 850+10.5 Oil 74.81 -3.81
What will make the market rally when we are going into a recession and all of this gloomy talk abounds. I don't know but we embrace the law of uncertainty here and trust it I will add on near the close. Remember we do not know when we are going to win but just that we are going to win. That is enough.

11:38 Adding to SSO 31.14 UYG 10.98
I am hearing that the smart money is in cash not worth the risk of being in they are saying move to the sidelines. I am hearing if there is a rally sell it. THIS IS A RETEST AND I FEEL GOOD THAT THIS IS THE LOW.
Will buy the close

The Close DJIA 8581 -731 VIX 68.42 GOLD 848.70 +9.2 OIL 74.81 -4.45
CNBC is working this selloff spreading lots of doom and gloom. Bought 1/4 DDM on close 32.68

2 comments:

WLD said...

I dont understand this Dal reports higher losses and the price goes up today ??

Mikey's trading account said...

I think you will see alot of that this reporting season. Their fuel costs are dropping like a rock. This merger with Northwest makes them extremely competative and with lower fuel costs look out. I think oil sees $4o before its over. Airlines are a screaming buy I like DAL the best.