Posting Times

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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Mexican Standoff ..bumping up against resistance

News background today ..more bad news
US Economy, Consumers Retreat, Signs of Recession

The US economy shrank during the summer, while consumer spending dropped by the largest amount in 28 years, the strongest signals yet that the widely predicted recession has already begun.

The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, a significant slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter.
DJIA 9031 +41.74 VIX 68.09 Gold 748.9 -5.10 Oil 65.22 -2.28
The market and most stocks are nearing the rally highs of Oct 20th and bumping against the 20 day average. Strong resistance a chance for those who thought they picked a bottom on that day to sell and get their money back. The traders see the 20 day average on the DJIA at 9266 and will sell there as the average is falling in a downtrend. They are holding it here to let both the shorts and longs place their bets. Bottom line for me is that we have seen the bottom for now.
The commodities market acted like the cut in rates was inflationary and we had a bounce in oil and Gold. At this stage of the game it is definitely not inflationary.
DZZ(Gold Short) turning back up at 38.63 +.73. Gold is a dead duck the question is when will it dive. CNBC touted Gold yesterday so it may be close.
Adding RGLD 27.51 to my short list should see 15 at least

Look at this:
Pickens: I'm On Sidelines ... $100 Oil in 2009
He's been knocked down before, he intends to recover again, but for now, Boone Pickens is out of the market.
The oil industry legend's BP Capital has been slammed by the credit crunch, shrinking by about 60 percent so far this year. That's a drop of some $2 billion since it peaked in late June.
"We're out of the market, and have been for several weeks," Pickens told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "I want to see a little more (from) the market before we move back in again; we're not going to be in any rush."
He said his fund will have been cut down to around $500 million by the end of the week, when the last redemptions have been made.
The fund was badly hurt by the precipitous drop in the price of oil. Pickens predicts that price will recover to about $100 per barrel during 2009.
"This is the worst credit crunch I've ever had," he said, adding, "We've been through them before; you just work your way through it."
He predicts consolidation as the oil industry struggles to cope with the price plunge.
"I guess I'm kind of anxious to see the first offer for a company," he said. "We may be a few months away from it."

They ran a special on T Boone on 60 minutes last week. He was the king of the oil gurus and was on the news many times. The system used him to promote their agenda as they did all of the financial gurus of the past 3 years. Now they are all the sidelines and those who followed them are too. This is the game, it always works the same. Anyone who is a guru on TV or in print when followed and believed by the masses is a Judas Goat either willingly or unwillingly. I think T Boone was speaking from his heart and I have to say that I hate to see this.
This is another example of a margin call and it has hit all of the bubble industries. The system will now gladly buy these assests at these cheap prices and start the game all over again.

11:33 DJIA 9167 +175 VIX 65.60 Gold 736 -15 Oil 65.34 -2.16
The news is not inviting the traders to buy plus remember we always sell off the last hour. That bad ol' last our boogy man is still out ther plus we may still retest. Oh my!

12:14 DJIA 9118 +129 VIX 64.75 Gold 740 -13.40 Oil 65.77 -1.73
Last hour selloff ... CNBC has been touting Gold all day. AEM CEO comming on to tout his company. With Gold 25% off highs and AEM 65% off highs the stock look cheap here. But I would expect Gold to be down 50 to 60% off its highs and not the other way around.

12:51 DJIA 9080 +89 VIX 66.30 Falling Gold 737.80 -16.80 Oil 65.26 -2.26
Nice close Gold falling maybe it goes here. Bottom line market keeps going up until this crisi is resolved. The beat goes on....Mikey

2 comments:

jaxwhitey said...

CNBC will be trotting out another gold CEO today.

Meltdown is imminent I'd say

jaxwhitey said...

And another gold CEO will be on Cramer tonight

Should I bump your "Epic decline in gold comming" thread at Covers Mikey?

I think I should