Futures ..Pre Market fall after Housing report...Yawn

6:23 From CNBC.com
U.S. consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed Friday, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sent shocks waves through the economy.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence plummeted to 57.5 in October from 70.3 in September.

"Consumer confidence in early October registered its largest monthly decline in the history of the surveys," the report said. The index is now at its lowest since June this year.

The report said there have only been four surveys that posted monthly declines of 10 index points or more.

"All of the prior double-digit declines were based on severe economic dislocations with the losses accelerated by fear and panic," the report said.

The index came out well below economists' expectations for a reading of 65.5, according to the median of their forecasts in a Reuters poll.

Their 64 forecasts ranged from 55.0 to 70.0. The University of Michigan confidence index dates back to 1952. Its record low was 51.7, which it hit in May 1980.
Government data show construction of new homes plunged by a bigger-than-expected amount in September as builders slashed production to the slowest place since early 1991.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by 6.3 percent last month, a much bigger decline than the 1.6 percent decrease that had been expected. It pushed total production to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000 units. That's the slowest pace since January 1991, a period when the country was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
Yada Yada Yada
There is some happy news for you today
WHAT A SURPRISE. I AM SHOCKED I THOUGHT NEW HOUSES WERE POPPING UP ALL OVER AND EVERYONE WAS AS HAPPY AS HELL.

Well I'm an optimist so about 1/2 hour after the open I will fire 1 on the XHB.
The XHB is the home builders ETF composed of home building stocks. I remember that in 2006 the experts were saying that homebuilding was going to the moon and would never stop. That didn't work. Well then the Fed had been raising interest rates for over a year and was trying to pop the housing bubble. Now they are slashing interest rates and buying up every mortgage in sight. Along those lines the thought occurs to me that if they are going to put Humpty Dumpty back together again then ABK 2.50 (Ambak) and MBI 8.58(MBIA) are going to rise from the ashes.
Fire 1 on XHB 13.83 down from 46
Fire 1 on ABK 2.50 down from 95
Fire 1 on MBI 8.58 down from 75
6:36 DJIA 8737 -242 VIX 73.08 Gold 787 -17 Oil 70.58 +.63

Look at this one from CNBC.com
The price of a barrel of crude could lose another $20 and the broader commodity market could slump by a third as the recent downtrend is set to intensify, Phil Roberts, technical analyst from Barclays Capital, told CNBC.
"The commodity market is still very much pricing in a further slow down and the signs we're seeing at the moment suggest that the process is intensifying rather than diminishing," Roberts said while taking a technical look at the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index.
The GSCI, which tracks a broad basket of commodities including oil, wheat and lean hogs, could lose another 30 percent to 40 percent, according to Roberts.

To that I say it has already dropped 45% you moron.
What this means is that commodities are nearing a low but to prove to you that inflation is dead they are going to meltdown Gold.
I think it is time to go long on the commodities and oil I will stay short Gold

UYM ETF for basic materials is 21.43
DIG ETF for oil stocks is 28.33

I already own 2 positions on both no new buys here but am watching the target if they go lower.

Since the economy is going to be so bad I think I'll buy IP Intl Paper and AA Alcoa

Fire 1 IP 17.85 down from 42 when things were good don't you know
Fire 2 AA 12.08 down from 48 ditto

Gold at 789.60 -14.90 Know that the Gold stocks are saying that Gold is going to at least its 2006 low soon. The GDX is the Gold miners ETF shares now 21.98 down from 54this March a 41% decline. Whereas gold is 878 down from 1000 this March a 12% decline. Gold will now catch up I am guessing at least to the high 500's. When they hit Gold the Gold stocks will be already down. You will then see an article saying that Gold is going down to 400.

Then the sellers will come in thats when I buy the GDX.
Gee the airlines are going up UAUA now 11.75 was 5 bucks just 19 days ago. my my my how things change

9:45 DJIA 8995 + 10.91 VIX 70.51 Gold 781.40 -23.10 Oil 71.55 +1.70
The XHB housing stock ETF is UNCH hmmmm
DJIA positive now and VIX still off the charts on the fear side is mind blowing. We are going higher.

9:54 DJIA 9090 +111 right up against the 10 day ave if we can break above this then look out it will be a straight shot to 10000
The cover story here is the bad economy.
10:04 DJIA 9163 +183 Remember this is options expiration day things could get crazy here with all those puts bought the last two weeks. Come on HANK goose them today

10:23 DJIA 9182 + 202 Atta boy Hank baby

11:25 DJIA 9089 +111 pulling back to 10 day now

11:33 DJIA 9120 +141 According to the expert trader Art Cashen of UBS he is not sure we have bottomed yet he is waitng until next week. That my friends is good news when he figures that we have bottomed I take profits. Let's hope when he figures it out he says buy the pullback

12:44 DJIA 8972 -6 Gold 787.80 -16.70 Oil 72.08 +2.23
What I am hearing..The rally may have just been option related. In other words, it was just technical and there is nothing to support it in the fundamentals, and therfore it won't hold. I am hearing the fundamentals are bad and the recession may be a depression so why buy stocks. They say the way to go is to buy cheap bonds.
Mikey says ......I love stocks in here and I will continue to buy.

Close DJIA 8852 -127 VIX Gold 785.30 -19.20 Oil 71.75 +1.90
If we pullback early next week and I get good prices I add on

Lets see where they take us next week .The beat goes on ...Mikey